Football · England Southern Premier League Central · 10/11, 20:45

Prediction: Leiston vs Real Bedford

Team pages: Leiston · Real Bedford

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.51Total

Leiston1.37

Real Bedford2.14

1X2

24% 22% 54%

Leiston Draw Real Bedford

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 58%

Most likely score

1-1 10%

Recent form · 10 last

Leiston 3-1-6 (W-D-L)

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Real Bedford 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Leiston 2–1 Real Bedford (3 last)

Real Bedford3-2Leiston
Real Bedford0-1Leiston
Leiston1-0Real Bedford

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Leiston 1473 · Real Bedford 1509

	Leiston	Draw	Real Bedford
Our model	23%	22%	54%
Market	24%	22%	54%

Estimated total (ours) 3.51 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 66%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Leiston: 2-0-1.
High corners: 15.3 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 7.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Leiston	Real Bedford
Goals for / against (FT)	1.8 / 2.3	2.1 / 1.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.9	0.8 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	14/43/43%	20/60/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	3 / 6.7	4.2 / 8.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.7 / 0.1	4 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

13.80

X4.10

21.65

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.75)1.98

2 (-0.75)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.95

Under 3.251.85

Diff.: 0.6 · xG: 3.85

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 12:57

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.80 → 3.80	Bet365 3.80
X	4.10 → 4.10	Bet365 4.10
2	1.65 → 1.65	Bet365 1.65

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.3%

Time*	1	X	2
12:55 +2’	3.80	4.10	1.65

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Leiston 2–0–1 Real Bedford

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Date	Home	Score	Away
29/09/26 England Southern Premier League Central	Real Bedford	3-2 HT 0-0	Leiston
14/04/26 England Southern Premier League Central	Real Bedford	0-1 HT 0-1	Leiston
29/11/25 England Southern Premier League Central	Leiston	1-0	Real Bedford

Standings · England Southern Premier League Central

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Real Bedford	17	12	2	3	43	22	38
2	Bury Town	17	11	2	4	31	26	35
3	Bromsgrove	15	10	4	1	31	16	34
4	Kettering	16	9	4	3	31	18	31
5	Needham Market	16	8	4	4	36	24	28
6	Peterborough Sports	16	7	6	3	32	26	27
7	Rushall Olympic	17	9	0	8	32	28	27
8	Alvechurch	14	7	5	2	27	13	26
9	Anstey Nomads	15	7	5	3	32	24	26
10	Halesowen	14	7	2	5	23	23	23
11	Stourbridge	15	6	4	5	20	21	22
12	Racing Club Warwick	16	5	5	6	23	22	20
13	Stratford Town	16	4	7	5	22	27	19
14	Redditch	14	4	6	4	23	22	18
15	Hitchin	16	4	4	8	20	24	16
16	Leiston	14	4	3	7	25	29	15
17	Banbury	16	3	5	8	18	29	14
18	Worcester City	13	3	4	6	15	17	13
19	Leamington	16	3	4	9	22	30	13
20	Bishop's Stortford	16	4	1	11	18	29	13
21	Leighton Town	15	1	3	11	16	35	6
22	Stamford	16	1	2	13	5	40	5

Common opponents 2 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Leiston	Real Bedford
Bromsgrove	2-3 L	1-1 D
Bury Town	3-4 L	2-2 D
Record vs common	0 W 0 D 2 L	0 W 2 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Real Bedford (2 of 2 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Leiston

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/11	Bromsgrove England Southern Premier League Central	–	2-3	–	–	L
31/10	Alvechurch England Southern Premier League Central	1-2	1-3	7	3	L
27/10	Peterborough Sports England Southern Premier League Central	–	5-2	–	–	W
20/10	Kettering England Southern Premier League Central	0-2	0-4	7	2	L
10/10	Racing Club Warwick England Southern Premier League Central	0-0	0-0	6	5	D
29/09	Real Bedford England Southern Premier League Central	0-0	2-3	5	5	L
22/09	Peterborough Sports England Southern Premier League Central	0-1	0-2	10	0	L
12/09	Banbury England Southern Premier League Central	1-1	2-1	7	4	W
31/08	Bury Town England Southern Premier League Central	–	3-4	–	–	L
29/08	Redditch England Southern Premier League Central	3-0	3-1	5	8	W

Real Bedford

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/11	Rushall Olympic England Southern Premier League Central	–	3-0	–	–	W
03/11	Anstey Nomads England Southern Premier League Central	1-1	2-1	3	5	W
31/10	Worcester City England Southern Premier League Central	–	1-4	–	–	L
27/10	Stourbridge England Southern Premier League Central	0-1	0-1	13	2	L
24/10	Bishop's Stortford England Southern Premier League Central	–	1-3	–	–	L
20/10	Bury Town England Southern Premier League Central	1-1	2-2	9	5	D
17/10	Stamford England Southern Premier League Central	–	4-0	–	–	W
10/10	Bromsgrove England Southern Premier League Central	–	1-1	–	–	D
29/09	Leiston England Southern Premier League Central	0-0	3-2	10	5	W
22/09	Stourbridge England Southern Premier League Central	2-1	4-1	8	4	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Leiston vs Real Bedford?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Real Bedford win (54%). Probabilities: Leiston 24%, draw 22%, Real Bedford 54%.

How many goals are expected in Leiston vs Real Bedford?

The model expects 3.51 goals (Leiston 1.37 · Real Bedford 2.14), with a 51% chance of over 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Leiston vs Real Bedford?

The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.