Football · England Southern Premier League Central · 10/11, 20:45

Prediction: Stourbridge vs Alvechurch

Team pages: Stourbridge · Alvechurch

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.88Total

Stourbridge1.42

Alvechurch1.47

1X2

36% 26% 38%

Stourbridge Draw Alvechurch

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Stourbridge 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

DLDLWWLWWL

Alvechurch 4-5-1 (W-D-L)

WWWDDLDDDW

Head-to-head

Stourbridge 3–2–1 Alvechurch (6 last)

Alvechurch0-0Stourbridge
Stourbridge1-1Alvechurch
Alvechurch1-2Stourbridge
Stourbridge1-0Alvechurch
Stourbridge0-1Alvechurch
Alvechurch1-2Stourbridge

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Stourbridge 1540 · Alvechurch 1538

	Stourbridge	Draw	Alvechurch
Our model	35%	27%	38%
Market	36%	25%	39%

Estimated total (ours) 2.88 goals · Bet365 line 2.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 63%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Stourbridge: 3-2-1.
High corners: 11.8 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 9.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Stourbridge	Alvechurch
Goals for / against (FT)	1.3 / 1.5	1.9 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 0.6	1 / 1.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	43/14/43%	20/40/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.4 / 6.6	2.8 / 5.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.7 / 0.1	4.4 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.50

X3.60

22.35

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.98

2 (0)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.82

Under 2.751.98

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 2.9

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 12:57

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.50 → 2.50	Bet365 2.50
X	3.60 → 3.60	Bet365 3.60
2	2.35 → 2.35	Bet365 2.35

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 10.3%

Time*	1	X	2
12:51 +6’	2.50	3.60	2.35

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Stourbridge 3–2–1 Alvechurch

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Date	Home	Score	Away
29/09/26 England Southern Premier League Central	Alvechurch	0-0	Stourbridge
06/04/26 England Southern Premier League Central	Stourbridge	1-1	Alvechurch
03/03/26 England Southern Premier League Central	Alvechurch	1-2 HT 0-0	Stourbridge
29/03/25 England Southern Premier League Central	Stourbridge	1-0	Alvechurch
26/10/24 England FA Trophy	Stourbridge	0-1	Alvechurch
28/09/24 England Southern Premier League Central	Alvechurch	1-2	Stourbridge

Standings · England Southern Premier League Central

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Real Bedford	17	12	2	3	43	22	38
2	Bury Town	17	11	2	4	31	26	35
3	Bromsgrove	15	10	4	1	31	16	34
4	Kettering	16	9	4	3	31	18	31
5	Needham Market	16	8	4	4	36	24	28
6	Peterborough Sports	16	7	6	3	32	26	27
7	Rushall Olympic	17	9	0	8	32	28	27
8	Alvechurch	14	7	5	2	27	13	26
9	Anstey Nomads	15	7	5	3	32	24	26
10	Halesowen	14	7	2	5	23	23	23
11	Stourbridge	15	6	4	5	20	21	22
12	Racing Club Warwick	16	5	5	6	23	22	20
13	Stratford Town	16	4	7	5	22	27	19
14	Redditch	14	4	6	4	23	22	18
15	Hitchin	16	4	4	8	20	24	16
16	Leiston	14	4	3	7	25	29	15
17	Banbury	16	3	5	8	18	29	14
18	Worcester City	13	3	4	6	15	17	13
19	Leamington	16	3	4	9	22	30	13
20	Bishop's Stortford	16	4	1	11	18	29	13
21	Leighton Town	15	1	3	11	16	35	6
22	Stamford	16	1	2	13	5	40	5

Common opponents 2 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Stourbridge	Alvechurch
Bury Town	0-2 L	0-1 L
Racing Club Warwick	0-1 L	2-0 W
Record vs common	0 W 0 D 2 L	1 W 0 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Alvechurch (2 of 2 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Stourbridge

DLDLWWLWWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/11	Needham Market England Southern Premier League Central	0-1	1-4	6	6	L
31/10	Kettering England Southern Premier League Central	2-0	4-1	3	9	W
27/10	Real Bedford England Southern Premier League Central	1-0	1-0	6	2	W
17/10	Bury Town England Southern Premier League Central	–	0-2	–	–	L
13/10	Worcester City England Southern Premier League Central	2-0	3-1	6	5	W
10/10	Leighton Town England Southern Premier League Central	–	2-1	–	–	W
03/10	Racing Club Warwick England Southern Premier League Central	0-1	0-1	12	6	L
29/09	Alvechurch England Southern Premier League Central	–	0-0	–	–	D
22/09	Real Bedford England Southern Premier League Central	1-2	1-4	4	4	L
12/09	Hitchin England Southern Premier League Central	0-0	1-1	9	2	D

Alvechurch

WWWDDLDDDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/10	Leiston England Southern Premier League Central	2-1	3-1	5	3	W
27/10	Anstey Nomads England Southern Premier League Central	1-2	2-2	6	9	D
24/10	Stratford Town England Southern Premier League Central	2-2	4-4	8	3	D
13/10	Halesowen England Southern Premier League Central	0-0	1-1	2	2	D
10/10	Bury Town England Southern Premier League Central	–	0-1	–	–	L
29/09	Stourbridge England Southern Premier League Central	–	0-0	–	–	D
22/09	Anstey Nomads England Southern Premier League Central	0-1	2-2	5	5	D
12/09	Stamford England Southern Premier League Central	–	4-0	–	–	W
31/08	Rushall Olympic England Southern Premier League Central	–	1-0	–	–	W
29/08	Racing Club Warwick England Southern Premier League Central	–	2-0	–	–	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Stourbridge vs Alvechurch?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Alvechurch win (38%). Probabilities: Stourbridge 36%, draw 26%, Alvechurch 38%.

How many goals are expected in Stourbridge vs Alvechurch?

The model expects 2.88 goals (Stourbridge 1.42 · Alvechurch 1.47), with a 50% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Stourbridge vs Alvechurch?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.