Football · England Southern Premier League Central · 31/10, 16:00

Prediction: Anstey Nomads vs Bishop's Stortford

Team pages: Anstey Nomads · Bishop's Stortford

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.62Total

Anstey Nomads2.33

Bishop's Stortford1.29

1X2

60% 21% 19%

Anstey Nomads Draw Bishop's Stortford

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 58%

Most likely score

2-1 9%

Recent form · 10 last

Anstey Nomads 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

WWLWWDLDWD

Bishop's Stortford 4-0-6 (W-D-L)

LWWWLLLLWL

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Anstey Nomads 1534 · Bishop's Stortford 1434

	Anstey Nomads	Draw	Bishop's Stortford
Our model	60%	21%	19%
Market	60%	21%	19%

Estimated total (ours) 3.62 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 75%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Anstey Nomads (rating 1534 vs 1434).
Cards-heavy: 6.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Anstey Nomads	Bishop's Stortford
Goals for / against (FT)	2 / 1.6	1.6 / 1.7
Goals for / against (HT)	1.1 / 1.4	0 / 1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	43/14/43%	0/33/67%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.9 / 4.3	1.3 / 3.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5 / 0	1.7 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.50

X4.33

24.60

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1)1.80

2 (+1)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 3.252.02

Under 3.251.77

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 3.45

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 11:33

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.50 → 1.50	Bet365 1.50
X	4.33 → 4.33	Bet365 4.33
2	4.60 → 4.60	Bet365 4.60

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.5%

Time*	1	X	2
11:31 +2’	1.50	4.33	4.60

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Standings · England Southern Premier League Central

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Real Bedford	14	10	2	2	37	17	32
2	Bury Town	14	10	1	3	24	20	31
3	Bromsgrove	13	8	4	1	23	13	28
4	Rushall Olympic	15	9	0	6	32	24	27
5	Kettering	13	7	4	2	25	11	25
6	Needham Market	14	7	3	4	29	20	24
7	Alvechurch	13	6	5	2	24	12	23
8	Peterborough Sports	14	6	5	3	27	23	23
9	Anstey Nomads	12	5	5	2	22	18	20
10	Halesowen	12	6	2	4	16	18	20
11	Stourbridge	13	5	4	4	15	16	19
12	Racing Club Warwick	14	4	5	5	21	19	17
13	Redditch	12	4	5	3	19	17	17
14	Leiston	12	4	3	5	22	23	15
15	Hitchin	14	3	4	7	16	20	13
16	Bishop's Stortford	14	4	1	9	17	24	13
17	Stratford Town	14	2	7	5	18	26	13
18	Banbury	14	3	4	7	16	26	13
19	Worcester City	12	2	4	6	11	16	10
20	Leamington	14	2	4	8	19	26	10
21	Leighton Town	13	1	3	9	14	27	6
22	Stamford	14	1	1	12	4	35	4

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Anstey Nomads	Bishop's Stortford
Needham Market	1-1 D	1-2 L
Racing Club Warwick	3-2 W	2-4 L
Bromsgrove	2-1 W	0-3 L
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 0 L	0 W 0 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Anstey Nomads (3 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Anstey Nomads

WWLWWDLDWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
27/10	Alvechurch England Southern Premier League Central	2-1	2-2	5	9	D
13/10	Rushall Olympic England Southern Premier League Central	1-2	3-2	8	3	W
10/10	Needham Market England Southern Premier League Central	1-1	1-1	7	2	D
29/09	Kettering England Southern Premier League Central	1-4	1-4	1	3	L
22/09	Alvechurch England Southern Premier League Central	1-0	2-2	5	5	D
12/09	Racing Club Warwick England Southern Premier League Central	1-0	3-2	0	7	W
31/08	Banbury England Southern Premier League Central	–	3-0	–	–	W
28/08	Peterborough Sports England Southern Premier League Central	1-2	1-2	4	6	L
22/08	Leighton Town England Southern Premier League Central	–	2-0	–	–	W
15/08	Bromsgrove England Southern Premier League Central	–	2-1	–	–	W

Bishop's Stortford

LWWWLLLLWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
27/10	Stamford England Southern Premier League Central	–	0-1	–	–	L
24/10	Real Bedford England Southern Premier League Central	–	3-1	–	–	W
20/10	Needham Market England Southern Premier League Central	0-2	1-2	6	0	L
17/10	Racing Club Warwick England Southern Premier League Central	–	2-4	–	–	L
10/10	Redditch England Southern Premier League Central	–	1-3	–	–	L
29/09	Bury Town England Southern Premier League Central	0-1	1-2	1	3	L
19/09	Stamford England Southern Premier League Central	–	3-0	–	–	W
12/09	Leamington England Southern Premier League Central	–	3-1	–	–	W
31/08	Hitchin England Southern Premier League Central	–	2-0	–	–	W
29/08	Bromsgrove England Southern Premier League Central	0-0	0-3	4	2	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Anstey Nomads vs Bishop's Stortford?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Anstey Nomads win (60%). Probabilities: Anstey Nomads 60%, draw 21%, Bishop's Stortford 19%.

How many goals are expected in Anstey Nomads vs Bishop's Stortford?

The model expects 3.62 goals (Anstey Nomads 2.33 · Bishop's Stortford 1.29), with a 51% chance of over 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Anstey Nomads vs Bishop's Stortford?

The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.