Football · England Southern Premier League Central · 31/10, 16:00

Prediction: Bury Town vs Banbury

Team pages: Bury Town · Banbury

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.99Total

Bury Town1.83

Banbury1.16

1X2

52% 25% 23%

Bury Town Draw Banbury

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 57% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Bury Town 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

WWLWWWLWDL

Banbury 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

DLLDLWLDWL

Head-to-head

Bury Town 1–2 Banbury (3 last)

Banbury1-0Bury Town
Bury Town2-1Banbury
Banbury2-1Bury Town

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Bury Town 1498 · Banbury 1454

	Bury Town	Draw	Banbury
Our model	52%	25%	23%
Market	52%	25%	23%

Estimated total (ours) 2.99 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 59%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Bury Town (rating 1498 vs 1454).
H2H favours Banbury: 2-0-1.
Cards-heavy: 5.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Bury Town	Banbury
Goals for / against (FT)	1.6 / 1.9	1.1 / 1.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 1.2	0.6 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/40/40%	14/57/29%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.8 / 4.2	2.3 / 4.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.6 / 0.2	3.3 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

11.73

X3.60

23.90

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.98

2 (+0.75)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.98

Under 2.751.82

Diff.: 0.5 · xG: 3.25

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 11:33

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.73 → 1.73	Bet365 1.73
X	3.60 → 3.60	Bet365 3.60
2	3.90 → 3.90	Bet365 3.90

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.3%

Time*	1	X	2
11:31 +2’	1.73	3.60	3.90

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Bury Town 1–0–2 Banbury

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Date	Home	Score	Away
14/02/26 England Southern Premier League Central	Banbury	1-0	Bury Town
01/11/25 England Southern Premier League Central	Bury Town	2-1	Banbury
24/10/20 England FA Cup Qualification	Banbury	2-1 HT 0-1	Bury Town

Standings · England Southern Premier League Central

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Real Bedford	14	10	2	2	37	17	32
2	Bury Town	14	10	1	3	24	20	31
3	Bromsgrove	13	8	4	1	23	13	28
4	Rushall Olympic	15	9	0	6	32	24	27
5	Kettering	13	7	4	2	25	11	25
6	Needham Market	14	7	3	4	29	20	24
7	Alvechurch	13	6	5	2	24	12	23
8	Peterborough Sports	14	6	5	3	27	23	23
9	Anstey Nomads	12	5	5	2	22	18	20
10	Halesowen	12	6	2	4	16	18	20
11	Stourbridge	13	5	4	4	15	16	19
12	Racing Club Warwick	14	4	5	5	21	19	17
13	Redditch	12	4	5	3	19	17	17
14	Leiston	12	4	3	5	22	23	15
15	Hitchin	14	3	4	7	16	20	13
16	Bishop's Stortford	14	4	1	9	17	24	13
17	Stratford Town	14	2	7	5	18	26	13
18	Banbury	14	3	4	7	16	26	13
19	Worcester City	12	2	4	6	11	16	10
20	Leamington	14	2	4	8	19	26	10
21	Leighton Town	13	1	3	9	14	27	6
22	Stamford	14	1	1	12	4	35	4

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Bury Town	Banbury
Stourbridge	2-0 W	1-1 D
Bromsgrove	0-1 L	1-1 D
Leiston	4-3 W	1-2 L
Leighton Town	3-2 W	1-0 W
Record vs common	3 W 0 D 1 L	1 W 2 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Bury Town (2 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Bury Town

WWLWWWLWDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/10	Hitchin England Southern Premier League Central	–	1-5	–	–	L
20/10	Real Bedford England Southern Premier League Central	1-1	2-2	2	5	D
17/10	Stourbridge England Southern Premier League Central	–	2-0	–	–	W
13/10	Needham Market England Southern Premier League Central	0-3	0-5	3	2	L
10/10	Alvechurch England Southern Premier League Central	–	1-0	–	–	W
29/09	Bishop's Stortford England Southern Premier League Central	1-0	2-1	4	3	W
22/09	Hitchin England Southern Premier League Central	–	1-0	–	–	W
12/09	Bromsgrove England Southern Premier League Central	0-0	0-1	6	2	L
31/08	Leiston England Southern Premier League Central	–	4-3	–	–	W
29/08	Leighton Town England Southern Premier League Central	1-2	3-2	6	2	W

Banbury

DLLDLWLDWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
27/10	Worcester City England Southern Premier League Central	0-1	0-3	8	1	L
20/10	Leighton Town England Southern Premier League Central	1-0	1-0	4	7	W
17/10	Bromsgrove England Southern Premier League Central	0-0	1-1	5	3	D
13/10	Peterborough Sports England Southern Premier League Central	1-2	2-4	6	6	L
10/10	Stamford England Southern Premier League Central	–	3-2	–	–	W
29/09	Stratford Town England Southern Premier League Central	1-1	2-3	0	2	L
22/09	Worcester City England Southern Premier League Central	0-0	0-0	3	3	D
12/09	Leiston England Southern Premier League Central	1-1	1-2	7	4	L
31/08	Anstey Nomads England Southern Premier League Central	–	0-3	–	–	L
29/08	Stourbridge England Southern Premier League Central	–	1-1	–	–	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Bury Town vs Banbury?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Bury Town win (52%). Probabilities: Bury Town 52%, draw 25%, Banbury 23%.

How many goals are expected in Bury Town vs Banbury?

The model expects 2.99 goals (Bury Town 1.83 · Banbury 1.16), with a 51% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Bury Town vs Banbury?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.