Football · England Southern Premier League Central · 31/10, 16:00

Prediction: Leighton Town vs Bromsgrove

Team pages: Leighton Town · Bromsgrove

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.84Total

Leighton Town1.02

Bromsgrove1.82

1X2

20% 24% 55%

Leighton Town Draw Bromsgrove

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Leighton Town 0-1-9 (W-D-L)

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Bromsgrove 6-4-0 (W-D-L)

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Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Leighton Town 1384 · Bromsgrove 1573

	Leighton Town	Draw	Bromsgrove
Our model	20%	25%	55%
Market	21%	24%	56%

Estimated total (ours) 2.84 goals · Bet365 line 2.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 56%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Bromsgrove (rating 1384 vs 1573).
Cards-heavy: 5.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Leighton Town	Bromsgrove
Goals for / against (FT)	1 / 2.4	1.7 / 0.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 1.6	0.4 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	29/0/71%	13/75/13%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.1 / 5	1.6 / 5.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3 / 0.3	2.5 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

14.33

X3.80

21.61

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.75)1.98

2 (-0.75)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.85

Under 2.751.95

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 3

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 12:46

	Bet365	Best now
1	4.33 → 4.33	Bet365 4.33
X	3.80 → 3.80	Bet365 3.80
2	1.61 → 1.61	Bet365 1.61

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.3%

Time*	1	X	2
12:10 +36’	4.33	3.80	1.61

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Standings · England Southern Premier League Central

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Real Bedford	14	10	2	2	37	17	32
2	Bury Town	14	10	1	3	24	20	31
3	Bromsgrove	13	8	4	1	23	13	28
4	Rushall Olympic	15	9	0	6	32	24	27
5	Kettering	13	7	4	2	25	11	25
6	Needham Market	14	7	3	4	29	20	24
7	Alvechurch	13	6	5	2	24	12	23
8	Peterborough Sports	14	6	5	3	27	23	23
9	Anstey Nomads	12	5	5	2	22	18	20
10	Halesowen	12	6	2	4	16	18	20
11	Stourbridge	13	5	4	4	15	16	19
12	Racing Club Warwick	14	4	5	5	21	19	17
13	Redditch	12	4	5	3	19	17	17
14	Leiston	12	4	3	5	22	23	15
15	Hitchin	14	3	4	7	16	20	13
16	Bishop's Stortford	14	4	1	9	17	24	13
17	Stratford Town	14	2	7	5	18	26	13
18	Banbury	14	3	4	7	16	26	13
19	Worcester City	12	2	4	6	11	16	10
20	Leamington	14	2	4	8	19	26	10
21	Leighton Town	13	1	3	9	14	27	6
22	Stamford	14	1	1	12	4	35	4

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Leighton Town	Bromsgrove
Banbury	0-1 L	1-1 D
Real Bedford	2-3 L	1-1 D
Bury Town	2-3 L	1-0 W
Record vs common	0 W 0 D 3 L	1 W 2 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Bromsgrove (3 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Leighton Town

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
27/10	Needham Market England Southern Premier League Central	1-0	1-1	3	2	D
20/10	Banbury England Southern Premier League Central	0-1	0-1	3	7	L
17/10	Rushall Olympic England Southern Premier League Central	0-3	0-3	4	3	L
10/10	Stourbridge England Southern Premier League Central	–	1-2	–	–	L
03/10	Peterborough Sports England Southern Premier League Central	0-2	2-4	4	4	L
29/09	Hitchin England Southern Premier League Central	0-1	0-1	9	0	L
12/09	Halesowen England Southern Premier League Central	–	2-4	–	–	L
31/08	Real Bedford England Southern Premier League Central	0-3	2-3	4	5	L
29/08	Bury Town England Southern Premier League Central	2-1	2-3	8	2	L
22/08	Anstey Nomads England Southern Premier League Central	–	0-2	–	–	L

Bromsgrove

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
27/10	Stratford Town England Southern Premier League Central	–	2-2	–	–	D
17/10	Banbury England Southern Premier League Central	0-0	1-1	7	3	D
13/10	Kettering England Southern Premier League Central	0-1	2-1	11	4	W
10/10	Real Bedford England Southern Premier League Central	–	1-1	–	–	D
29/09	Leamington England Southern Premier League Central	1-1	1-1	5	3	D
22/09	Stratford Town England Southern Premier League Central	0-0	3-2	3	3	W
12/09	Bury Town England Southern Premier League Central	0-0	1-0	3	2	W
31/08	Worcester City England Southern Premier League Central	1-0	1-0	5	4	W
29/08	Bishop's Stortford England Southern Premier League Central	0-0	3-0	6	2	W
22/08	Redditch England Southern Premier League Central	1-1	2-1	3	1	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Leighton Town vs Bromsgrove?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Bromsgrove win (55%). Probabilities: Leighton Town 20%, draw 24%, Bromsgrove 55%.

How many goals are expected in Leighton Town vs Bromsgrove?

The model expects 2.84 goals (Leighton Town 1.02 · Bromsgrove 1.82), with a 50% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Leighton Town vs Bromsgrove?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.