Football · England Southern Premier League Central · 31/10, 16:00

Prediction: Leiston vs Alvechurch

Team pages: Leiston · Alvechurch

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.31Total

Leiston1.56

Alvechurch1.74

1X2

34% 25% 41%

Leiston Draw Alvechurch

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 58% Both teams to score 58%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Leiston 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

LDWLWLLDLW

Alvechurch 4-5-1 (W-D-L)

WWWWDDLDDD

Head-to-head

Leiston 2–4–0 Alvechurch (6 last)

Alvechurch1-1Leiston
Leiston3-3Alvechurch
Alvechurch1-1Leiston
Leiston2-1Alvechurch
Leiston2-2Alvechurch
Alvechurch0-2Leiston

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Leiston 1485 · Alvechurch 1554

	Leiston	Draw	Alvechurch
Our model	34%	25%	41%
Market	33%	26%	41%

Estimated total (ours) 3.31 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.6

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 64%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Alvechurch (rating 1485 vs 1554).
H2H favours Leiston: 2-4-0.
High corners: 11.7 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 8.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Leiston	Alvechurch
Goals for / against (FT)	1.8 / 2.1	1.9 / 1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.7	0.8 / 1.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	14/57/29%	0/50/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.9 / 6.4	2.8 / 5.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.9 / 0.1	4.8 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.70

X3.50

22.20

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.77

2 (-0.25)2.02

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.90

Under 2.751.90

Diff.: 0.65 · xG: 3.4

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 12:46

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.70 → 2.70	Bet365 2.70
X	3.50 → 3.50	Bet365 3.50
2	2.20 → 2.20	Bet365 2.20

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.1%

Time*	1	X	2
12:39 +7’	2.70	3.50	2.20

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Leiston 2–4–0 Alvechurch

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Date	Home	Score	Away
25/04/26 England Southern Premier League Central	Alvechurch	1-1 HT 0-1	Leiston
20/01/26 England Southern Premier League Central	Leiston	3-3 HT 2-2	Alvechurch
22/03/25 England Southern Premier League Central	Alvechurch	1-1	Leiston
12/11/24 England Southern Premier League Central	Leiston	2-1	Alvechurch
24/02/24 England Southern Premier League Central	Leiston	2-2	Alvechurch
28/11/23 England Southern Premier League Central	Alvechurch	0-2	Leiston

Standings · England Southern Premier League Central

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Real Bedford	14	10	2	2	37	17	32
2	Bury Town	14	10	1	3	24	20	31
3	Bromsgrove	13	8	4	1	23	13	28
4	Rushall Olympic	15	9	0	6	32	24	27
5	Kettering	13	7	4	2	25	11	25
6	Needham Market	14	7	3	4	29	20	24
7	Alvechurch	13	6	5	2	24	12	23
8	Peterborough Sports	14	6	5	3	27	23	23
9	Anstey Nomads	12	5	5	2	22	18	20
10	Halesowen	12	6	2	4	16	18	20
11	Stourbridge	13	5	4	4	15	16	19
12	Racing Club Warwick	14	4	5	5	21	19	17
13	Redditch	12	4	5	3	19	17	17
14	Leiston	12	4	3	5	22	23	15
15	Hitchin	14	3	4	7	16	20	13
16	Bishop's Stortford	14	4	1	9	17	24	13
17	Stratford Town	14	2	7	5	18	26	13
18	Banbury	14	3	4	7	16	26	13
19	Worcester City	12	2	4	6	11	16	10
20	Leamington	14	2	4	8	19	26	10
21	Leighton Town	13	1	3	9	14	27	6
22	Stamford	14	1	1	12	4	35	4

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Leiston	Alvechurch
Racing Club Warwick	0-0 D	2-0 W
Bury Town	3-4 L	0-1 L
Stourbridge	2-2 D	0-0 D
Rushall Olympic	1-2 L	1-0 W
Record vs common	0 W 2 D 2 L	2 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Alvechurch (2 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Leiston

LDWLWLLDLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
27/10	Peterborough Sports England Southern Premier League Central	–	5-2	–	–	W
20/10	Kettering England Southern Premier League Central	0-2	0-4	7	2	L
10/10	Racing Club Warwick England Southern Premier League Central	0-0	0-0	6	5	D
29/09	Real Bedford England Southern Premier League Central	0-0	2-3	5	5	L
22/09	Peterborough Sports England Southern Premier League Central	0-1	0-2	10	0	L
12/09	Banbury England Southern Premier League Central	1-1	2-1	7	4	W
31/08	Bury Town England Southern Premier League Central	–	3-4	–	–	L
29/08	Redditch England Southern Premier League Central	3-0	3-1	5	8	W
22/08	Stourbridge England Southern Premier League Central	–	2-2	–	–	D
15/08	Rushall Olympic England Southern Premier League Central	1-1	1-2	5	4	L

Alvechurch

WWWWDDLDDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
27/10	Anstey Nomads England Southern Premier League Central	1-2	2-2	6	9	D
24/10	Stratford Town England Southern Premier League Central	2-2	4-4	8	3	D
13/10	Halesowen England Southern Premier League Central	0-0	1-1	2	2	D
10/10	Bury Town England Southern Premier League Central	–	0-1	–	–	L
29/09	Stourbridge England Southern Premier League Central	–	0-0	–	–	D
22/09	Anstey Nomads England Southern Premier League Central	0-1	2-2	5	5	D
12/09	Stamford England Southern Premier League Central	–	4-0	–	–	W
31/08	Rushall Olympic England Southern Premier League Central	–	1-0	–	–	W
29/08	Racing Club Warwick England Southern Premier League Central	–	2-0	–	–	W
22/08	Bishop's Stortford England Southern Premier League Central	–	3-0	–	–	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Leiston vs Alvechurch?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Alvechurch win (41%). Probabilities: Leiston 34%, draw 25%, Alvechurch 41%.

How many goals are expected in Leiston vs Alvechurch?

The model expects 3.31 goals (Leiston 1.56 · Alvechurch 1.74), with a 54% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Leiston vs Alvechurch?

The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.