Football · England Southern Premier League Central · 31/10, 16:00

Prediction: Worcester City vs Real Bedford

Team pages: Worcester City · Real Bedford

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.71Total

Worcester City0.95

Real Bedford1.76

1X2

20% 24% 56%

Worcester City Draw Real Bedford

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Worcester City 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

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Real Bedford 6-2-2 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Worcester City 0–1–1 Real Bedford (2 last)

Real Bedford0-0Worcester City
Worcester City1-3Real Bedford

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Worcester City 1499 · Real Bedford 1512

	Worcester City	Draw	Real Bedford
Our model	19%	26%	55%
Market	21%	22%	57%

Estimated total (ours) 2.71 goals · Bet365 line 3 · -0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 54%model estimate

Match keys

High corners: 10.9 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 6.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Worcester City	Real Bedford
Goals for / against (FT)	0.9 / 1.2	2.2 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.6	1 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	38/13/50%	29/57/14%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.3 / 3.6	3.7 / 7.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.4 / 0.3	3.7 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

14.33

X4.10

21.57

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+1)1.80

2 (-1)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 31.98

Under 31.82

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 2.8

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 11:33

	Bet365	Best now
1	4.33 → 4.33	Bet365 4.33
X	4.10 → 4.10	Bet365 4.10
2	1.57 → 1.57	Bet365 1.57

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.1%

Time*	1	X	2
11:30 +3’	4.33	4.10	1.57

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Worcester City 0–1–1 Real Bedford

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Date	Home	Score	Away
17/03/26 England Southern Premier League Central	Real Bedford	0-0 HT 0-0	Worcester City
20/09/25 England Southern Premier League Central	Worcester City	1-3	Real Bedford

Standings · England Southern Premier League Central

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Real Bedford	14	10	2	2	37	17	32
2	Bury Town	14	10	1	3	24	20	31
3	Bromsgrove	13	8	4	1	23	13	28
4	Rushall Olympic	15	9	0	6	32	24	27
5	Kettering	13	7	4	2	25	11	25
6	Needham Market	14	7	3	4	29	20	24
7	Alvechurch	13	6	5	2	24	12	23
8	Peterborough Sports	14	6	5	3	27	23	23
9	Anstey Nomads	12	5	5	2	22	18	20
10	Halesowen	12	6	2	4	16	18	20
11	Stourbridge	13	5	4	4	15	16	19
12	Racing Club Warwick	14	4	5	5	21	19	17
13	Redditch	12	4	5	3	19	17	17
14	Leiston	12	4	3	5	22	23	15
15	Hitchin	14	3	4	7	16	20	13
16	Bishop's Stortford	14	4	1	9	17	24	13
17	Stratford Town	14	2	7	5	18	26	13
18	Banbury	14	3	4	7	16	26	13
19	Worcester City	12	2	4	6	11	16	10
20	Leamington	14	2	4	8	19	26	10
21	Leighton Town	13	1	3	9	14	27	6
22	Stamford	14	1	1	12	4	35	4

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Worcester City	Real Bedford
Stourbridge	1-3 L	0-1 L
Bromsgrove	0-1 L	1-1 D
Stamford	1-0 W	4-0 W
Leighton Town	1-2 L	3-2 W
Record vs common	1 W 0 D 3 L	2 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Real Bedford (4 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Worcester City

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
27/10	Banbury England Southern Premier League Central	1-0	3-0	5	1	W
13/10	Stourbridge England Southern Premier League Central	0-2	1-3	6	5	L
10/10	Rushall Olympic England Southern Premier League Central	0-1	0-1	4	4	L
29/09	Racing Club Warwick England Southern Premier League Central	1-0	2-2	4	1	D
22/09	Banbury England Southern Premier League Central	0-0	0-0	1	3	D
12/09	Needham Market England Southern Premier League Central	0-1	0-2	2	3	L
31/08	Bromsgrove England Southern Premier League Central	0-1	0-1	3	4	L
29/08	Leamington England Southern Premier League Central	–	1-1	–	–	D
22/08	Stamford England Southern Premier League Central	–	1-0	–	–	W
15/08	Leighton Town England Southern Premier League Central	1-0	1-2	4	0	L

Real Bedford

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
27/10	Stourbridge England Southern Premier League Central	0-1	0-1	13	2	L
24/10	Bishop's Stortford England Southern Premier League Central	–	1-3	–	–	L
20/10	Bury Town England Southern Premier League Central	1-1	2-2	9	5	D
17/10	Stamford England Southern Premier League Central	–	4-0	–	–	W
10/10	Bromsgrove England Southern Premier League Central	–	1-1	–	–	D
29/09	Leiston England Southern Premier League Central	0-0	3-2	10	5	W
22/09	Stourbridge England Southern Premier League Central	2-1	4-1	8	4	W
12/09	Redditch England Southern Premier League Central	1-1	2-1	5	4	W
31/08	Leighton Town England Southern Premier League Central	3-0	3-2	3	5	W
29/08	Halesowen England Southern Premier League Central	0-0	2-0	3	3	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Worcester City vs Real Bedford?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Real Bedford win (56%). Probabilities: Worcester City 20%, draw 24%, Real Bedford 56%.

How many goals are expected in Worcester City vs Real Bedford?

The model expects 2.71 goals (Worcester City 0.95 · Real Bedford 1.76), with a 57% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Worcester City vs Real Bedford?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.