Football · England Southern Premier League Central · 27/10, 20:45

Prediction: Alvechurch vs Anstey Nomads

Team pages: Alvechurch · Anstey Nomads

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.08Total

Alvechurch1.55

Anstey Nomads1.53

1X2

38% 26% 36%

Alvechurch Draw Anstey Nomads

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 63% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Alvechurch 5-4-1 (W-D-L)

WWWWWDDLDD

Anstey Nomads 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

DWWLWWDLDW

Head-to-head

Alvechurch 1–1–1 Anstey Nomads (3 last)

Anstey Nomads2-2Alvechurch
Anstey Nomads3-1Alvechurch
Anstey Nomads0-1Alvechurch

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Alvechurch 1572 · Anstey Nomads 1541

	Alvechurch	Draw	Anstey Nomads
Our model	38%	26%	36%
Market	38%	26%	37%

Estimated total (ours) 3.08 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 67%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 7.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Alvechurch	Anstey Nomads
Goals for / against (FT)	1.9 / 0.8	1.9 / 1.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 1	1 / 1.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	0/67/33%	33/17/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.3 / 5	1.8 / 4.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.3 / 0	4.3 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.38

X3.50

22.45

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.85

2 (0)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.90

Under 2.751.90

Diff.: 0.3 · xG: 3.05

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 12:39

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.38 → 2.38	Bet365 2.38
X	3.50 → 3.50	Bet365 3.50
2	2.45 → 2.45	Bet365 2.45

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.5%

Time*	1	X	2
12:36 +3’	2.38	3.50	2.45

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Alvechurch 1–1–1 Anstey Nomads

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Date	Home	Score	Away
22/09/26 England Southern Premier League Central	Anstey Nomads	2-2 HT 1-0	Alvechurch
31/08/24 England FA Cup Qualification	Anstey Nomads	3-1	Alvechurch
07/10/23 England FA Trophy	Anstey Nomads	0-1	Alvechurch

Standings · England Southern Premier League Central

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Real Bedford	13	10	2	1	37	16	32
2	Bury Town	14	10	1	3	24	20	31
3	Bromsgrove	12	8	3	1	21	11	27
4	Rushall Olympic	14	9	0	5	30	21	27
5	Needham Market	13	7	2	4	28	19	23
6	Peterborough Sports	13	6	5	2	25	18	23
7	Kettering	12	6	4	2	22	9	22
8	Alvechurch	12	6	4	2	22	10	22
9	Anstey Nomads	11	5	4	2	20	16	19
10	Racing Club Warwick	13	4	5	4	20	17	17
11	Halesowen	11	5	2	4	13	16	17
12	Stourbridge	12	4	4	4	14	16	16
13	Redditch	11	3	5	3	17	16	14
14	Hitchin	14	3	4	7	16	20	13
15	Bishop's Stortford	13	4	1	8	17	23	13
16	Banbury	13	3	4	6	16	23	13
17	Leiston	11	3	3	5	17	21	12
18	Stratford Town	13	2	6	5	16	24	12
19	Leamington	13	2	4	7	17	23	10
20	Worcester City	11	1	4	6	8	16	7
21	Leighton Town	12	1	2	9	13	26	5
22	Stamford	13	0	1	12	3	35	1

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Alvechurch	Anstey Nomads
Rushall Olympic	1-0 W	3-2 W
Racing Club Warwick	2-0 W	3-2 W
Needham Market	2-0 W	1-1 D
Record vs common	3 W 0 D 0 L	2 W 1 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Alvechurch (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Alvechurch

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/10	Stratford Town England Southern Premier League Central	2-2	4-4	8	3	D
13/10	Halesowen England Southern Premier League Central	0-0	1-1	2	2	D
10/10	Bury Town England Southern Premier League Central	–	0-1	–	–	L
29/09	Stourbridge England Southern Premier League Central	–	0-0	–	–	D
22/09	Anstey Nomads England Southern Premier League Central	0-1	2-2	5	5	D
12/09	Stamford England Southern Premier League Central	–	4-0	–	–	W
31/08	Rushall Olympic England Southern Premier League Central	–	1-0	–	–	W
29/08	Racing Club Warwick England Southern Premier League Central	–	2-0	–	–	W
22/08	Bishop's Stortford England Southern Premier League Central	–	3-0	–	–	W
15/08	Needham Market England Southern Premier League Central	–	2-0	–	–	W

Anstey Nomads

DWWLWWDLDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
13/10	Rushall Olympic England Southern Premier League Central	1-2	3-2	8	3	W
10/10	Needham Market England Southern Premier League Central	1-1	1-1	7	2	D
29/09	Kettering England Southern Premier League Central	1-4	1-4	1	3	L
22/09	Alvechurch England Southern Premier League Central	1-0	2-2	5	5	D
12/09	Racing Club Warwick England Southern Premier League Central	1-0	3-2	0	7	W
31/08	Banbury England Southern Premier League Central	–	3-0	–	–	W
28/08	Peterborough Sports England Southern Premier League Central	1-2	1-2	4	6	L
22/08	Leighton Town England Southern Premier League Central	–	2-0	–	–	W
15/08	Bromsgrove England Southern Premier League Central	–	2-1	–	–	W
11/08	Leamington England Southern Premier League Central	–	1-1	–	–	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Alvechurch vs Anstey Nomads?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Alvechurch win (38%). Probabilities: Alvechurch 38%, draw 26%, Anstey Nomads 36%.

How many goals are expected in Alvechurch vs Anstey Nomads?

The model expects 3.08 goals (Alvechurch 1.55 · Anstey Nomads 1.53), with a 52% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Alvechurch vs Anstey Nomads?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.