Football · England Southern Premier League Central · 03/11, 20:45

Prediction: Anstey Nomads vs Real Bedford

Team pages: Anstey Nomads · Real Bedford

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.79Total

Anstey Nomads1.8

Real Bedford1.99

1X2

35% 23% 42%

Anstey Nomads Draw Real Bedford

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 61%

Most likely score

1-1 9%

Recent form · 10 last

Anstey Nomads 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

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Real Bedford 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

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Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Anstey Nomads 1529 · Real Bedford 1482

	Anstey Nomads	Draw	Real Bedford
Our model	35%	23%	42%
Market	35%	24%	42%

Estimated total (ours) 3.79 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · +0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 77%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Anstey Nomads (rating 1529 vs 1482).
High corners: 12.3 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 8.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Anstey Nomads	Real Bedford
Goals for / against (FT)	2.2 / 1.6	2.1 / 1.7
Goals for / against (HT)	1.1 / 1.4	1.2 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	43/14/43%	33/50/17%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.9 / 4.3	4.2 / 8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5 / 0	3.8 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

12.60

X3.80

22.15

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.80

2 (-0.25)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.95

Under 3.251.85

Diff.: 0.55 · xG: 3.8

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 12:53

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.60 → 2.60	Bet365 2.60
X	3.80 → 3.80	Bet365 3.80
2	2.15 → 2.15	Bet365 2.15

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.3%

Time*	1	X	2
12:47 +6’	2.60	3.80	2.15

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Standings · England Southern Premier League Central

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Real Bedford	15	10	2	3	38	21	32
2	Bury Town	15	10	2	3	26	22	32
3	Bromsgrove	14	9	4	1	28	14	31
4	Rushall Olympic	16	9	0	7	32	25	27
5	Alvechurch	14	7	5	2	27	13	26
6	Peterborough Sports	15	7	5	3	31	25	26
7	Kettering	14	7	4	3	26	15	25
8	Needham Market	15	7	4	4	32	23	25
9	Anstey Nomads	13	6	5	2	26	19	23
10	Halesowen	13	7	2	4	20	18	23
11	Stourbridge	14	6	4	4	19	17	22
12	Racing Club Warwick	15	5	5	5	22	19	20
13	Redditch	13	4	6	3	22	20	18
14	Stratford Town	15	3	7	5	21	27	16
15	Leiston	13	4	3	6	23	26	15
16	Banbury	15	3	5	7	18	28	14
17	Worcester City	13	3	4	6	15	17	13
18	Hitchin	15	3	4	8	17	23	13
19	Bishop's Stortford	15	4	1	10	18	28	13
20	Leamington	15	2	4	9	21	30	10
21	Leighton Town	14	1	3	10	15	32	6
22	Stamford	15	1	1	13	4	39	4

Common opponents 2 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Anstey Nomads	Real Bedford
Bishop's Stortford	4-1 W	1-3 L
Leighton Town	2-0 W	3-2 W
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 0 L	1 W 0 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Anstey Nomads (2 of 2 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Anstey Nomads

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/10	Bishop's Stortford England Southern Premier League Central	–	4-1	–	–	W
27/10	Alvechurch England Southern Premier League Central	2-1	2-2	5	9	D
13/10	Rushall Olympic England Southern Premier League Central	1-2	3-2	8	3	W
10/10	Needham Market England Southern Premier League Central	1-1	1-1	7	2	D
29/09	Kettering England Southern Premier League Central	1-4	1-4	1	3	L
22/09	Alvechurch England Southern Premier League Central	1-0	2-2	5	5	D
12/09	Racing Club Warwick England Southern Premier League Central	1-0	3-2	0	7	W
31/08	Banbury England Southern Premier League Central	–	3-0	–	–	W
28/08	Peterborough Sports England Southern Premier League Central	1-2	1-2	4	6	L
22/08	Leighton Town England Southern Premier League Central	–	2-0	–	–	W

Real Bedford

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/10	Worcester City England Southern Premier League Central	–	1-4	–	–	L
27/10	Stourbridge England Southern Premier League Central	0-1	0-1	13	2	L
24/10	Bishop's Stortford England Southern Premier League Central	–	1-3	–	–	L
20/10	Bury Town England Southern Premier League Central	1-1	2-2	9	5	D
17/10	Stamford England Southern Premier League Central	–	4-0	–	–	W
10/10	Bromsgrove England Southern Premier League Central	–	1-1	–	–	D
29/09	Leiston England Southern Premier League Central	0-0	3-2	10	5	W
22/09	Stourbridge England Southern Premier League Central	2-1	4-1	8	4	W
12/09	Redditch England Southern Premier League Central	1-1	2-1	5	4	W
31/08	Leighton Town England Southern Premier League Central	3-0	3-2	3	5	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Anstey Nomads vs Real Bedford?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Real Bedford win (42%). Probabilities: Anstey Nomads 35%, draw 23%, Real Bedford 42%.

How many goals are expected in Anstey Nomads vs Real Bedford?

The model expects 3.79 goals (Anstey Nomads 1.8 · Real Bedford 1.99), with a 53% chance of over 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Anstey Nomads vs Real Bedford?

The model gives a 61% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.