Football · England Southern Premier League Central · 03/11, 20:45

Prediction: Bury Town vs Kettering

Team pages: Bury Town · Kettering

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.6Total

Bury Town1.91

Kettering1.7

1X2

42% 24% 34%

Bury Town Draw Kettering

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 60%

Most likely score

1-1 10%

Recent form · 10 last

Bury Town 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

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Kettering 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Bury Town 0–1–1 Kettering (2 last)

Bury Town0-1Kettering
Kettering3-3Bury Town

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Bury Town 1478 · Kettering 1542

	Bury Town	Draw	Kettering
Our model	42%	24%	34%
Market	42%	25%	33%

Estimated total (ours) 3.6 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.6

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 73%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Kettering (rating 1478 vs 1542).
Cards-heavy: 7.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Bury Town	Kettering
Goals for / against (FT)	1.5 / 1.9	2.3 / 1.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 1	1.3 / 1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	25/50/25%	57/0/43%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.5 / 3.8	2.7 / 5.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.8 / 0.3	4.4 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

12.15

X3.60

22.70

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.98

2 (+0.25)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 31.98

Under 31.82

Diff.: 0.55 · xG: 3.55

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 12:53

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.15 → 2.15	Bet365 2.15
X	3.60 → 3.60	Bet365 3.60
2	2.70 → 2.70	Bet365 2.70

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.3%

Time*	1	X	2
12:48 +5’	2.15	3.60	2.70

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Bury Town 0–1–1 Kettering

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Date	Home	Score	Away
25/04/26 England Southern Premier League Central	Bury Town	0-1	Kettering
13/12/25 England Southern Premier League Central	Kettering	3-3	Bury Town

Standings · England Southern Premier League Central

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Real Bedford	15	10	2	3	38	21	32
2	Bury Town	15	10	2	3	26	22	32
3	Bromsgrove	14	9	4	1	28	14	31
4	Rushall Olympic	16	9	0	7	32	25	27
5	Alvechurch	14	7	5	2	27	13	26
6	Peterborough Sports	15	7	5	3	31	25	26
7	Kettering	14	7	4	3	26	15	25
8	Needham Market	15	7	4	4	32	23	25
9	Anstey Nomads	13	6	5	2	26	19	23
10	Halesowen	13	7	2	4	20	18	23
11	Stourbridge	14	6	4	4	19	17	22
12	Racing Club Warwick	15	5	5	5	22	19	20
13	Redditch	13	4	6	3	22	20	18
14	Stratford Town	15	3	7	5	21	27	16
15	Leiston	13	4	3	6	23	26	15
16	Banbury	15	3	5	7	18	28	14
17	Worcester City	13	3	4	6	15	17	13
18	Hitchin	15	3	4	8	17	23	13
19	Bishop's Stortford	15	4	1	10	18	28	13
20	Leamington	15	2	4	9	21	30	10
21	Leighton Town	14	1	3	10	15	32	6
22	Stamford	15	1	1	13	4	39	4

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Bury Town	Kettering
Hitchin	1-5 L	1-1 D
Stourbridge	2-0 W	1-4 L
Bromsgrove	0-1 L	1-2 L
Leiston	4-3 W	4-0 W
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 2 L	1 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Kettering (2 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Bury Town

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/10	Banbury England Southern Premier League Central	–	2-2	–	–	D
24/10	Hitchin England Southern Premier League Central	–	1-5	–	–	L
20/10	Real Bedford England Southern Premier League Central	1-1	2-2	2	5	D
17/10	Stourbridge England Southern Premier League Central	–	2-0	–	–	W
13/10	Needham Market England Southern Premier League Central	0-3	0-5	3	2	L
10/10	Alvechurch England Southern Premier League Central	–	1-0	–	–	W
29/09	Bishop's Stortford England Southern Premier League Central	1-0	2-1	4	3	W
22/09	Hitchin England Southern Premier League Central	–	1-0	–	–	W
12/09	Bromsgrove England Southern Premier League Central	0-0	0-1	6	2	L
31/08	Leiston England Southern Premier League Central	–	4-3	–	–	W

Kettering

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/10	Stourbridge England Southern Premier League Central	0-2	1-4	5	9	L
27/10	Rushall Olympic England Southern Premier League Central	0-2	3-2	2	6	W
20/10	Leiston England Southern Premier League Central	2-0	4-0	7	2	W
13/10	Bromsgrove England Southern Premier League Central	1-0	1-2	2	4	L
10/10	Halesowen England Southern Premier League Central	–	1-1	–	–	D
29/09	Anstey Nomads England Southern Premier League Central	4-1	4-1	3	3	W
22/09	Rushall Olympic England Southern Premier League Central	1-2	2-3	11	3	L
12/09	Stratford Town England Southern Premier League Central	–	1-0	–	–	W
31/08	Stamford England Southern Premier League Central	1-0	5-0	8	6	W
29/08	Hitchin England Southern Premier League Central	–	1-1	–	–	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Bury Town vs Kettering?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Bury Town win (42%). Probabilities: Bury Town 42%, draw 24%, Kettering 34%.

How many goals are expected in Bury Town vs Kettering?

The model expects 3.6 goals (Bury Town 1.91 · Kettering 1.7), with a 54% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Bury Town vs Kettering?

The model gives a 60% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.