Football · England Southern Premier League Central · 24/10, 16:00

Prediction: Hitchin vs Bury Town

Team pages: Hitchin · Bury Town

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.77Total

Hitchin1.13

Bury Town1.65

1X2

26% 25% 49%

Hitchin Draw Bury Town

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Hitchin 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

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Bury Town 7-1-2 (W-D-L)

WWWLWWWLWD

Head-to-head

Hitchin 0–1 Bury Town (1 last)

Bury Town1-0Hitchin

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Hitchin 1480 · Bury Town 1554

	Hitchin	Draw	Bury Town
Our model	25%	27%	48%
Market	26%	24%	50%

Estimated total (ours) 2.77 goals · Bet365 line 2.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 51%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Bury Town (rating 1480 vs 1554).

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Hitchin	Bury Town
Goals for / against (FT)	0.8 / 1.3	1.8 / 1.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.2 / 0.4	0.6 / 1.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/40/40%	20/40/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.6 / 5.4	2.8 / 4.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	0.8 / 0	2.6 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

13.40

X3.80

21.80

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.5)1.95

2 (-0.5)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.90

Under 2.751.90

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 2.65

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 15:20

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.40 → 3.40	Bet365 3.40
X	3.80 → 3.80	Bet365 3.80
2	1.80 → 1.80	Bet365 1.80

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.3%

Time*	1	X	2
15:17 +3’	3.40	3.80	1.80

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Hitchin 0–0–1 Bury Town

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Date	Home	Score	Away
22/09/26 England Southern Premier League Central	Bury Town	1-0	Hitchin

Standings · England Southern Premier League Central

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Real Bedford	12	10	2	0	36	13	32
2	Bury Town	13	10	1	2	23	15	31
3	Bromsgrove	12	8	3	1	21	11	27
4	Rushall Olympic	14	9	0	5	30	21	27
5	Needham Market	13	7	2	4	28	19	23
6	Peterborough Sports	13	6	5	2	25	18	23
7	Kettering	12	6	4	2	22	9	22
8	Alvechurch	11	6	3	2	18	6	21
9	Anstey Nomads	11	5	4	2	20	16	19
10	Racing Club Warwick	13	4	5	4	20	17	17
11	Halesowen	11	5	2	4	13	16	17
12	Stourbridge	12	4	4	4	14	16	16
13	Redditch	11	3	5	3	17	16	14
14	Banbury	13	3	4	6	16	23	13
15	Leiston	11	3	3	5	17	21	12
16	Stratford Town	12	2	5	5	12	20	11
17	Leamington	13	2	4	7	17	23	10
18	Bishop's Stortford	12	3	1	8	14	22	10
19	Hitchin	13	2	4	7	11	19	10
20	Worcester City	11	1	4	6	8	16	7
21	Leighton Town	12	1	2	9	13	26	5
22	Stamford	13	0	1	12	3	35	1

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Hitchin	Bury Town
Leamington	0-4 L	3-0 W
Leighton Town	1-0 W	3-2 W
Stourbridge	1-1 D	2-0 W
Bishop's Stortford	0-2 L	2-1 W
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 2 L	4 W 0 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Bury Town (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Hitchin

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
20/10	Stamford England Southern Premier League Central	–	3-0	–	–	W
17/10	Halesowen England Southern Premier League Central	0-1	1-2	5	1	L
10/10	Peterborough Sports England Southern Premier League Central	0-0	0-1	5	1	L
03/10	Leamington England Southern Premier League Central	0-1	0-4	6	0	L
29/09	Leighton Town England Southern Premier League Central	1-0	1-0	7	0	W
22/09	Bury Town England Southern Premier League Central	–	0-1	–	–	L
12/09	Stourbridge England Southern Premier League Central	0-0	1-1	4	2	D
31/08	Bishop's Stortford England Southern Premier League Central	–	0-2	–	–	L
29/08	Kettering England Southern Premier League Central	–	1-1	–	–	D
22/08	Racing Club Warwick England Southern Premier League Central	–	1-1	–	–	D

Bury Town

WWWLWWWLWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
20/10	Real Bedford England Southern Premier League Central	1-1	2-2	2	5	D
17/10	Stourbridge England Southern Premier League Central	–	2-0	–	–	W
13/10	Needham Market England Southern Premier League Central	0-3	0-5	3	2	L
10/10	Alvechurch England Southern Premier League Central	–	1-0	–	–	W
29/09	Bishop's Stortford England Southern Premier League Central	1-0	2-1	4	3	W
22/09	Hitchin England Southern Premier League Central	–	1-0	–	–	W
12/09	Bromsgrove England Southern Premier League Central	0-0	0-1	6	2	L
31/08	Leiston England Southern Premier League Central	–	4-3	–	–	W
29/08	Leighton Town England Southern Premier League Central	1-2	3-2	6	2	W
22/08	Leamington England Southern Premier League Central	–	3-0	–	–	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Hitchin vs Bury Town?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Bury Town win (49%). Probabilities: Hitchin 26%, draw 25%, Bury Town 49%.

How many goals are expected in Hitchin vs Bury Town?

The model expects 2.77 goals (Hitchin 1.13 · Bury Town 1.65), with a 52% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Hitchin vs Bury Town?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.