Football · England Southern Premier League Central · 27/10, 20:45

Prediction: Needham Market vs Leighton Town

Team pages: Needham Market · Leighton Town

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.37Total

Needham Market2.29

Leighton Town1.08

1X2

64% 20% 16%

Needham Market Draw Leighton Town

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 56% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

2-1 10%

Recent form · 10 last

Needham Market 6-2-2 (W-D-L)

LWDWWLDWWW

Leighton Town 1-0-9 (W-D-L)

WLLLLLLLLL

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Needham Market 1535 · Leighton Town 1389

	Needham Market	Draw	Leighton Town
Our model	63%	21%	16%
Market	64%	20%	16%

Estimated total (ours) 3.37 goals · Bet365 line 3.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 73%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Needham Market (rating 1535 vs 1389).
Cards-heavy: 4.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Needham Market	Leighton Town
Goals for / against (FT)	2.4 / 1.3	1.1 / 2.4
Goals for / against (HT)	1.8 / 0.8	0.3 / 1.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	63/13/25%	14/0/86%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.8 / 3.8	2.1 / 5.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.1 / 0.6	2.7 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

11.40

X4.50

25.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.25)1.85

2 (+1.25)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 3.252.00

Under 3.251.80

Diff.: 0.35 · xG: 3.6

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 14:24

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.40 → 1.40	Bet365 1.40
X	4.50 → 4.50	Bet365 4.50
2	5.50 → 5.50	Bet365 5.50

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.8%

Time*	1	X	2
14:19 +5’	1.40	4.50	5.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Standings · England Southern Premier League Central

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Real Bedford	13	10	2	1	37	16	32
2	Bury Town	14	10	1	3	24	20	31
3	Bromsgrove	12	8	3	1	21	11	27
4	Rushall Olympic	14	9	0	5	30	21	27
5	Needham Market	13	7	2	4	28	19	23
6	Peterborough Sports	13	6	5	2	25	18	23
7	Kettering	12	6	4	2	22	9	22
8	Alvechurch	12	6	4	2	22	10	22
9	Anstey Nomads	11	5	4	2	20	16	19
10	Racing Club Warwick	13	4	5	4	20	17	17
11	Halesowen	11	5	2	4	13	16	17
12	Stourbridge	12	4	4	4	14	16	16
13	Redditch	11	3	5	3	17	16	14
14	Hitchin	14	3	4	7	16	20	13
15	Bishop's Stortford	13	4	1	8	17	23	13
16	Banbury	13	3	4	6	16	23	13
17	Leiston	11	3	3	5	17	21	12
18	Stratford Town	13	2	6	5	16	24	12
19	Leamington	13	2	4	7	17	23	10
20	Worcester City	11	1	4	6	8	16	7
21	Leighton Town	12	1	2	9	13	26	5
22	Stamford	13	0	1	12	3	35	1

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Needham Market	Leighton Town
Bury Town	5-0 W	2-3 L
Anstey Nomads	1-1 D	0-2 L
Rushall Olympic	3-5 L	0-3 L
Worcester City	2-0 W	2-1 W
Peterborough Sports	3-3 D	2-4 L
Halesowen	0-1 L	2-4 L
Record vs common	2 W 2 D 2 L	1 W 0 D 5 L

Better against common opponents: Needham Market (6 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Needham Market

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Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
20/10	Bishop's Stortford England Southern Premier League Central	2-0	2-1	5	0	W
17/10	Leamington England Southern Premier League Central	2-1	2-1	1	6	W
13/10	Bury Town England Southern Premier League Central	3-0	5-0	10	2	W
10/10	Anstey Nomads England Southern Premier League Central	1-1	1-1	2	2	D
03/10	Rushall Olympic England Southern Premier League Central	1-3	3-5	0	5	L
29/09	Stamford England Southern Premier League Central	4-0	4-0	5	2	W
12/09	Worcester City England Southern Premier League Central	1-0	2-0	3	3	W
31/08	Peterborough Sports England Southern Premier League Central	0-1	3-3	4	2	D
29/08	Stratford Town England Southern Premier League Central	–	2-1	–	–	W
22/08	Halesowen England Southern Premier League Central	–	0-1	–	–	L

Leighton Town

WLLLLLLLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
20/10	Banbury England Southern Premier League Central	0-1	0-1	3	7	L
17/10	Rushall Olympic England Southern Premier League Central	0-3	0-3	4	3	L
10/10	Stourbridge England Southern Premier League Central	–	1-2	–	–	L
03/10	Peterborough Sports England Southern Premier League Central	0-2	2-4	4	4	L
29/09	Hitchin England Southern Premier League Central	0-1	0-1	9	0	L
12/09	Halesowen England Southern Premier League Central	–	2-4	–	–	L
31/08	Real Bedford England Southern Premier League Central	0-3	2-3	4	5	L
29/08	Bury Town England Southern Premier League Central	2-1	2-3	8	2	L
22/08	Anstey Nomads England Southern Premier League Central	–	0-2	–	–	L
15/08	Worcester City England Southern Premier League Central	0-1	2-1	6	0	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Needham Market vs Leighton Town?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Needham Market win (64%). Probabilities: Needham Market 64%, draw 20%, Leighton Town 16%.

How many goals are expected in Needham Market vs Leighton Town?

The model expects 3.37 goals (Needham Market 2.29 · Leighton Town 1.08), with a 52% chance of under 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Needham Market vs Leighton Town?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.