Football · England Southern Premier League Central · 27/10, 20:45

Prediction: Peterborough Sports vs Leiston

Team pages: Peterborough Sports · Leiston

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.63Total

Peterborough Sports2.15

Leiston1.47

1X2

52% 23% 25%

Peterborough Sports Draw Leiston

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 59%

Most likely score

1-1 9%

Recent form · 10 last

Peterborough Sports 6-4-0 (W-D-L)

DWDWWDWWWD

Leiston 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

WLDWLWLLDL

Head-to-head

Peterborough Sports 4–1–1 Leiston (6 last)

Leiston0-2Peterborough Sports
Leiston1-4Peterborough Sports
Leiston0-0Peterborough Sports
Peterborough Sports1-2Leiston
Leiston1-4Peterborough Sports
Leiston2-4Peterborough Sports

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Peterborough Sports 1559 · Leiston 1477

	Peterborough Sports	Draw	Leiston
Our model	52%	22%	25%
Market	52%	23%	25%

Estimated total (ours) 3.63 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 68%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Peterborough Sports (rating 1559 vs 1477).
H2H favours Peterborough Sports: 4-1-1.
Cards-heavy: 6.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Peterborough Sports	Leiston
Goals for / against (FT)	2.3 / 1.3	1.6 / 2
Goals for / against (HT)	1.1 / 0.4	0.9 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	71/14/14%	25/50/25%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.9 / 3	2.8 / 6.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3 / 0.4	3.8 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.73

X3.90

23.60

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.98

2 (+0.75)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 3.252.00

Under 3.251.80

Diff.: 0.35 · xG: 3.6

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 14:24

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.73 → 1.73	Bet365 1.73
X	3.90 → 3.90	Bet365 3.90
2	3.60 → 3.60	Bet365 3.60

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.3%

Time*	1	X	2
14:19 +5’	1.73	3.90	3.60

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Peterborough Sports 4–1–1 Leiston

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Date	Home	Score	Away
22/09/26 England Southern Premier League Central	Leiston	0-2 HT 0-1	Peterborough Sports
21/11/23 England FA Trophy	Leiston	1-4	Peterborough Sports
23/04/22 England Southern Premier League Central	Leiston	0-0	Peterborough Sports
11/09/21 England Southern Premier League Central	Peterborough Sports	1-2 HT 1-1	Leiston
17/10/20 England Southern Premier League Central	Leiston	1-4	Peterborough Sports
14/12/19 England Southern Premier League Central	Leiston	2-4	Peterborough Sports

Standings · England Southern Premier League Central

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Real Bedford	13	10	2	1	37	16	32
2	Bury Town	14	10	1	3	24	20	31
3	Bromsgrove	12	8	3	1	21	11	27
4	Rushall Olympic	14	9	0	5	30	21	27
5	Needham Market	13	7	2	4	28	19	23
6	Peterborough Sports	13	6	5	2	25	18	23
7	Kettering	12	6	4	2	22	9	22
8	Alvechurch	12	6	4	2	22	10	22
9	Anstey Nomads	11	5	4	2	20	16	19
10	Racing Club Warwick	13	4	5	4	20	17	17
11	Halesowen	11	5	2	4	13	16	17
12	Stourbridge	12	4	4	4	14	16	16
13	Redditch	11	3	5	3	17	16	14
14	Hitchin	14	3	4	7	16	20	13
15	Bishop's Stortford	13	4	1	8	17	23	13
16	Banbury	13	3	4	6	16	23	13
17	Leiston	11	3	3	5	17	21	12
18	Stratford Town	13	2	6	5	16	24	12
19	Leamington	13	2	4	7	17	23	10
20	Worcester City	11	1	4	6	8	16	7
21	Leighton Town	12	1	2	9	13	26	5
22	Stamford	13	0	1	12	3	35	1

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Peterborough Sports	Leiston
Banbury	4-2 W	2-1 W
Redditch	2-2 D	3-1 W
Rushall Olympic	4-2 W	1-2 L
Kettering	0-0 D	0-4 L
Record vs common	2 W 2 D 0 L	2 W 0 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Peterborough Sports (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Peterborough Sports

DWDWWDWWWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/10	Stratford Town England Southern Premier League Central	–	1-1	–	–	D
13/10	Banbury England Southern Premier League Central	2-1	4-2	2	6	W
10/10	Hitchin England Southern Premier League Central	0-0	1-0	4	1	W
03/10	Leighton Town England Southern Premier League Central	2-0	4-2	5	4	W
29/09	Redditch England Southern Premier League Central	0-1	2-2	3	5	D
22/09	Leiston England Southern Premier League Central	1-0	2-0	2	0	W
12/09	Rushall Olympic England Southern Premier League Central	–	4-2	–	–	W
31/08	Needham Market England Southern Premier League Central	1-0	3-3	3	2	D
28/08	Anstey Nomads England Southern Premier League Central	2-1	2-1	2	6	W
22/08	Kettering England Southern Premier League Central	–	0-0	–	–	D

Leiston

WLDWLWLLDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
20/10	Kettering England Southern Premier League Central	0-2	0-4	7	2	L
10/10	Racing Club Warwick England Southern Premier League Central	0-0	0-0	6	5	D
29/09	Real Bedford England Southern Premier League Central	0-0	2-3	5	5	L
22/09	Peterborough Sports England Southern Premier League Central	0-1	0-2	10	0	L
12/09	Banbury England Southern Premier League Central	1-1	2-1	7	4	W
31/08	Bury Town England Southern Premier League Central	–	3-4	–	–	L
29/08	Redditch England Southern Premier League Central	3-0	3-1	5	8	W
22/08	Stourbridge England Southern Premier League Central	–	2-2	–	–	D
15/08	Rushall Olympic England Southern Premier League Central	1-1	1-2	5	4	L
11/08	Bishop's Stortford England Southern Premier League Central	2-0	3-1	5	3	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Peterborough Sports vs Leiston?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Peterborough Sports win (52%). Probabilities: Peterborough Sports 52%, draw 23%, Leiston 25%.

How many goals are expected in Peterborough Sports vs Leiston?

The model expects 3.63 goals (Peterborough Sports 2.15 · Leiston 1.47), with a 51% chance of over 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Peterborough Sports vs Leiston?

The model gives a 59% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.