Football · England Southern Premier League Central · 27/10, 20:45

Prediction: Real Bedford vs Stourbridge

Team pages: Real Bedford · Stourbridge

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.31Total

Real Bedford2.22

Stourbridge1.09

1X2

62% 21% 17%

Real Bedford Draw Stourbridge

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 58% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

2-1 10%

Recent form · 10 last

Real Bedford 7-2-1 (W-D-L)

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Stourbridge 2-4-4 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Real Bedford 2–1 Stourbridge (3 last)

Stourbridge1-4Real Bedford
Stourbridge2-1Real Bedford
Real Bedford3-1Stourbridge

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Real Bedford 1542 · Stourbridge 1510

	Real Bedford	Draw	Stourbridge
Our model	62%	21%	17%
Market	63%	21%	17%

Estimated total (ours) 3.31 goals · Bet365 line 3.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 67%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Real Bedford: 2-0-1.
High corners: 14.5 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 7.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Real Bedford	Stourbridge
Goals for / against (FT)	2.8 / 1.3	1 / 1.5
Goals for / against (HT)	1.3 / 0.4	0.6 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	43/57/0%	20/20/60%
Corners (HT / FT)	4 / 6.7	3.8 / 7.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.1 / 0.3	3.6 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.42

X4.33

25.25

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.25)1.90

2 (+1.25)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 3.252.00

Under 3.251.80

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 3.3

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 14:24

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.42 → 1.42	Bet365 1.42
X	4.33 → 4.33	Bet365 4.33
2	5.25 → 5.25	Bet365 5.25

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12.5%

Time*	1	X	2
14:22 +2’	1.42	4.33	5.25

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Real Bedford 2–0–1 Stourbridge

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Date	Home	Score	Away
22/09/26 England Southern Premier League Central	Stourbridge	1-4 HT 1-2	Real Bedford
21/02/26 England Southern Premier League Central	Stourbridge	2-1	Real Bedford
21/10/25 England Southern Premier League Central	Real Bedford	3-1	Stourbridge

Standings · England Southern Premier League Central

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Real Bedford	13	10	2	1	37	16	32
2	Bury Town	14	10	1	3	24	20	31
3	Bromsgrove	12	8	3	1	21	11	27
4	Rushall Olympic	14	9	0	5	30	21	27
5	Needham Market	13	7	2	4	28	19	23
6	Peterborough Sports	13	6	5	2	25	18	23
7	Kettering	12	6	4	2	22	9	22
8	Alvechurch	12	6	4	2	22	10	22
9	Anstey Nomads	11	5	4	2	20	16	19
10	Racing Club Warwick	13	4	5	4	20	17	17
11	Halesowen	11	5	2	4	13	16	17
12	Stourbridge	12	4	4	4	14	16	16
13	Redditch	11	3	5	3	17	16	14
14	Hitchin	14	3	4	7	16	20	13
15	Bishop's Stortford	13	4	1	8	17	23	13
16	Banbury	13	3	4	6	16	23	13
17	Leiston	11	3	3	5	17	21	12
18	Stratford Town	13	2	6	5	16	24	12
19	Leamington	13	2	4	7	17	23	10
20	Worcester City	11	1	4	6	8	16	7
21	Leighton Town	12	1	2	9	13	26	5
22	Stamford	13	0	1	12	3	35	1

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Real Bedford	Stourbridge
Bury Town	2-2 D	0-2 L
Leiston	3-2 W	2-2 D
Leighton Town	3-2 W	2-1 W
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 0 L	1 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Real Bedford (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Real Bedford

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/10	Bishop's Stortford England Southern Premier League Central	–	1-3	–	–	L
20/10	Bury Town England Southern Premier League Central	1-1	2-2	9	5	D
17/10	Stamford England Southern Premier League Central	–	4-0	–	–	W
10/10	Bromsgrove England Southern Premier League Central	–	1-1	–	–	D
29/09	Leiston England Southern Premier League Central	0-0	3-2	10	5	W
22/09	Stourbridge England Southern Premier League Central	2-1	4-1	8	4	W
12/09	Redditch England Southern Premier League Central	1-1	2-1	5	4	W
31/08	Leighton Town England Southern Premier League Central	3-0	3-2	3	5	W
29/08	Halesowen England Southern Premier League Central	0-0	2-0	3	3	W
22/08	Stratford Town England Southern Premier League Central	2-0	6-1	9	5	W

Stourbridge

DDLDLDLWWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/10	Bury Town England Southern Premier League Central	–	0-2	–	–	L
13/10	Worcester City England Southern Premier League Central	2-0	3-1	6	5	W
10/10	Leighton Town England Southern Premier League Central	–	2-1	–	–	W
03/10	Racing Club Warwick England Southern Premier League Central	0-1	0-1	12	6	L
29/09	Alvechurch England Southern Premier League Central	–	0-0	–	–	D
22/09	Real Bedford England Southern Premier League Central	1-2	1-4	4	4	L
12/09	Hitchin England Southern Premier League Central	0-0	1-1	9	2	D
01/09	Leamington England Southern Premier League Central	0-1	0-2	8	2	L
29/08	Banbury England Southern Premier League Central	–	1-1	–	–	D
22/08	Leiston England Southern Premier League Central	–	2-2	–	–	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Real Bedford vs Stourbridge?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Real Bedford win (62%). Probabilities: Real Bedford 62%, draw 21%, Stourbridge 17%.

How many goals are expected in Real Bedford vs Stourbridge?

The model expects 3.31 goals (Real Bedford 2.22 · Stourbridge 1.09), with a 52% chance of under 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Real Bedford vs Stourbridge?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.