Football · England Southern Premier League Central · 20/10, 20:45

Prediction: Banbury vs Leighton Town

Team pages: Banbury · Leighton Town

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.19Total

Banbury1.84

Leighton Town1.35

1X2

48% 25% 27%

Banbury Draw Leighton Town

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 60% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Banbury 1-3-6 (W-D-L)

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Leighton Town 1-1-8 (W-D-L)

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Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Banbury 1451 · Leighton Town 1390

	Banbury	Draw	Leighton Town
Our model	48%	25%	27%
Market	48%	25%	27%

Estimated total (ours) 3.19 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 66%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Banbury (rating 1451 vs 1390).
Cards-heavy: 5.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Banbury	Leighton Town
Goals for / against (FT)	1.3 / 2.2	1.2 / 2.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.8	0.4 / 1.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	0/83/17%	29/0/71%
Corners (HT / FT)	2 / 4	2.1 / 5.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.8 / 0.3	2.4 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.85

X3.60

23.25

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.95

2 (+0.5)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 2.752.00

Under 2.751.80

Diff.: 0.8 · xG: 3.55

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 12:38

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.85 → 1.85	Bet365 1.85
X	3.60 → 3.60	Bet365 3.60
2	3.25 → 3.25	Bet365 3.25

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12.6%

Time*	1	X	2
12:37 +2’	1.85	3.60	3.25

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Standings · England Southern Premier League Central

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Real Bedford	11	10	1	0	34	11	31
2	Bury Town	12	10	0	2	21	13	30
3	Bromsgrove	12	8	3	1	21	11	27
4	Rushall Olympic	13	8	0	5	27	20	24
5	Peterborough Sports	13	6	5	2	25	18	23
6	Alvechurch	11	6	3	2	18	6	21
7	Needham Market	12	6	2	4	26	18	20
8	Kettering	11	5	4	2	18	9	19
9	Anstey Nomads	11	5	4	2	20	16	19
10	Halesowen	10	5	2	3	12	11	17
11	Stourbridge	12	4	4	4	14	16	16
12	Redditch	11	3	5	3	17	16	14
13	Racing Club Warwick	12	3	5	4	15	16	14
14	Leiston	10	3	3	4	17	17	12
15	Stratford Town	12	2	5	5	12	20	11
16	Leamington	12	2	4	6	16	20	10
17	Bishop's Stortford	11	3	1	7	13	20	10
18	Banbury	12	2	4	6	15	23	10
19	Worcester City	11	1	4	6	8	16	7
20	Hitchin	12	1	4	7	8	19	7
21	Leighton Town	11	1	2	8	13	25	5
22	Stamford	12	0	1	11	3	32	1

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Banbury	Leighton Town
Peterborough Sports	2-4 L	2-4 L
Worcester City	0-0 D	2-1 W
Anstey Nomads	0-3 L	0-2 L
Stourbridge	1-1 D	1-2 L
Rushall Olympic	2-3 L	0-3 L
Real Bedford	1-3 L	2-3 L
Record vs common	0 W 2 D 4 L	1 W 0 D 5 L

Better against common opponents: Leighton Town (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Banbury

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/10	Bromsgrove England Southern Premier League Central	0-0	1-1	5	3	D
13/10	Peterborough Sports England Southern Premier League Central	1-2	2-4	6	6	L
10/10	Stamford England Southern Premier League Central	–	3-2	–	–	W
29/09	Stratford Town England Southern Premier League Central	1-1	2-3	0	2	L
22/09	Worcester City England Southern Premier League Central	0-0	0-0	3	3	D
12/09	Leiston England Southern Premier League Central	1-1	1-2	7	4	L
31/08	Anstey Nomads England Southern Premier League Central	–	0-3	–	–	L
29/08	Stourbridge England Southern Premier League Central	–	1-1	–	–	D
22/08	Rushall Olympic England Southern Premier League Central	–	2-3	–	–	L
15/08	Real Bedford England Southern Premier League Central	1-1	1-3	3	1	L

Leighton Town

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/10	Rushall Olympic England Southern Premier League Central	0-3	0-3	4	3	L
10/10	Stourbridge England Southern Premier League Central	–	1-2	–	–	L
03/10	Peterborough Sports England Southern Premier League Central	0-2	2-4	4	4	L
29/09	Hitchin England Southern Premier League Central	0-1	0-1	9	0	L
12/09	Halesowen England Southern Premier League Central	–	2-4	–	–	L
31/08	Real Bedford England Southern Premier League Central	0-3	2-3	4	5	L
29/08	Bury Town England Southern Premier League Central	2-1	2-3	8	2	L
22/08	Anstey Nomads England Southern Premier League Central	–	0-2	–	–	L
15/08	Worcester City England Southern Premier League Central	0-1	2-1	6	0	W
11/08	Kettering England Southern Premier League Central	1-0	1-1	4	4	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Banbury vs Leighton Town?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Banbury win (48%). Probabilities: Banbury 48%, draw 25%, Leighton Town 27%.

How many goals are expected in Banbury vs Leighton Town?

The model expects 3.19 goals (Banbury 1.84 · Leighton Town 1.35), with a 51% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Banbury vs Leighton Town?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.