Football · England Southern Premier League Central · 20/10, 20:45

Prediction: Hitchin vs Stamford

Team pages: Hitchin · Stamford

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.45Total

Hitchin1.55

Stamford0.9

1X2

53% 26% 22%

Hitchin Draw Stamford

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 56% Both teams to score 51%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Hitchin 1-4-5 (W-D-L)

DDDLDLWLLL

Stamford 0-1-9 (W-D-L)

LLLLLLLLDL

Head-to-head

Hitchin 0–5 Stamford (5 last)

Hitchin0-2Stamford
Stamford2-0Hitchin
Stamford2-0Hitchin
Hitchin1-2Stamford
Hitchin2-3Stamford

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Hitchin 1436 · Stamford 1367

	Hitchin	Draw	Stamford
Our model	51%	28%	21%
Market	54%	24%	23%

Estimated total (ours) 2.45 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · -0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 61%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Hitchin (rating 1436 vs 1367).
H2H favours Stamford: 5-0-0.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Hitchin	Stamford
Goals for / against (FT)	0.6 / 1.4	0.3 / 2.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.2 / 0.5	0 / 1.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	17/33/50%	0/50/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.5 / 5	0.8 / 1.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	1 / 0	3 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.67

X3.80

23.90

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.90

2 (+0.75)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.95

Under 2.751.85

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 2.6

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 12:38

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.67 → 1.67	Bet365 1.67
X	3.80 → 3.80	Bet365 3.80
2	3.90 → 3.90	Bet365 3.90

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12%

Time*	1	X	2
12:30 +8’	1.67	3.80	3.90

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Hitchin 0–0–5 Stamford

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Date	Home	Score	Away
21/12/24 England Southern Premier League Central	Hitchin	0-2	Stamford
13/08/24 England Southern Premier League Central	Stamford	2-0	Hitchin
20/04/24 England Southern Premier League Central	Stamford	2-0 HT 1-0	Hitchin
11/11/23 England Southern Premier League Central	Hitchin	1-2	Stamford
07/10/23 England FA Trophy	Hitchin	2-3	Stamford

Standings · England Southern Premier League Central

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Real Bedford	11	10	1	0	34	11	31
2	Bury Town	12	10	0	2	21	13	30
3	Bromsgrove	12	8	3	1	21	11	27
4	Rushall Olympic	13	8	0	5	27	20	24
5	Peterborough Sports	13	6	5	2	25	18	23
6	Alvechurch	11	6	3	2	18	6	21
7	Needham Market	12	6	2	4	26	18	20
8	Kettering	11	5	4	2	18	9	19
9	Anstey Nomads	11	5	4	2	20	16	19
10	Halesowen	10	5	2	3	12	11	17
11	Stourbridge	12	4	4	4	14	16	16
12	Redditch	11	3	5	3	17	16	14
13	Racing Club Warwick	12	3	5	4	15	16	14
14	Leiston	10	3	3	4	17	17	12
15	Stratford Town	12	2	5	5	12	20	11
16	Leamington	12	2	4	6	16	20	10
17	Bishop's Stortford	11	3	1	7	13	20	10
18	Banbury	12	2	4	6	15	23	10
19	Worcester City	11	1	4	6	8	16	7
20	Hitchin	12	1	4	7	8	19	7
21	Leighton Town	11	1	2	8	13	25	5
22	Stamford	12	0	1	11	3	32	1

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Hitchin	Stamford
Bishop's Stortford	0-2 L	0-3 L
Kettering	1-1 D	0-5 L
Racing Club Warwick	1-1 D	1-2 L
Record vs common	0 W 2 D 1 L	0 W 0 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Hitchin (3 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Hitchin

DDDLDLWLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/10	Halesowen England Southern Premier League Central	0-1	1-2	5	1	L
10/10	Peterborough Sports England Southern Premier League Central	0-0	0-1	5	1	L
03/10	Leamington England Southern Premier League Central	0-1	0-4	6	0	L
29/09	Leighton Town England Southern Premier League Central	1-0	1-0	7	0	W
22/09	Bury Town England Southern Premier League Central	–	0-1	–	–	L
12/09	Stourbridge England Southern Premier League Central	0-0	1-1	4	2	D
31/08	Bishop's Stortford England Southern Premier League Central	–	0-2	–	–	L
29/08	Kettering England Southern Premier League Central	–	1-1	–	–	D
22/08	Racing Club Warwick England Southern Premier League Central	–	1-1	–	–	D
15/08	Redditch England Southern Premier League Central	0-1	1-1	3	2	D

Stamford

LLLLLLLLDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/10	Real Bedford England Southern Premier League Central	–	0-4	–	–	L
13/10	Stratford Town England Southern Premier League Central	0-0	0-0	2	1	D
10/10	Banbury England Southern Premier League Central	–	2-3	–	–	L
29/09	Needham Market England Southern Premier League Central	0-4	0-4	1	2	L
19/09	Bishop's Stortford England Southern Premier League Central	–	0-3	–	–	L
12/09	Alvechurch England Southern Premier League Central	–	0-4	–	–	L
31/08	Kettering England Southern Premier League Central	0-1	0-5	0	6	L
29/08	Rushall Olympic England Southern Premier League Central	0-0	0-3	2	3	L
22/08	Worcester City England Southern Premier League Central	–	0-1	–	–	L
15/08	Racing Club Warwick England Southern Premier League Central	–	1-2	–	–	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Hitchin vs Stamford?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Hitchin win (53%). Probabilities: Hitchin 53%, draw 26%, Stamford 22%.

How many goals are expected in Hitchin vs Stamford?

The model expects 2.45 goals (Hitchin 1.55 · Stamford 0.9), with a 57% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Hitchin vs Stamford?

The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.