Football · England Southern Premier League Central · 20/10, 20:45

Prediction: Kettering vs Leiston

Team pages: Kettering · Leiston

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.12Total

Kettering1.87

Leiston1.25

1X2

51% 24% 25%

Kettering Draw Leiston

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 62% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Kettering 4-4-2 (W-D-L)

DWDDWWLWDL

Leiston 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

DWLDWLWLLD

Head-to-head

Kettering 4–1–1 Leiston (6 last)

Leiston4-1Kettering
Kettering3-0Leiston
Leiston0-2Kettering
Kettering2-1Leiston
Kettering2-2Leiston
Leiston0-2Kettering

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Kettering 1534 · Leiston 1505

	Kettering	Draw	Leiston
Our model	51%	25%	25%
Market	51%	24%	25%

Estimated total (ours) 3.12 goals · Bet365 line 3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 66%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Kettering: 4-1-1.
High corners: 12.8 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 7.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Kettering	Leiston
Goals for / against (FT)	1.7 / 0.9	1.7 / 1.7
Goals for / against (HT)	1.4 / 0.8	0.9 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	60/0/40%	25/50/25%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.4 / 6.8	2.8 / 6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.8 / 0.2	4.1 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.75

X3.75

23.60

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)2.00

2 (+0.75)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 32.00

Under 31.80

Diff.: 0 · xG: 3

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 14:21

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.75 → 1.75	Bet365 1.75
X	3.75 → 3.75	Bet365 3.75
2	3.60 → 3.60	Bet365 3.60

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.6%

Time*	1	X	2
14:15 +7’	1.75	3.75	3.60

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Kettering 4–1–1 Leiston

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Date	Home	Score	Away
10/01/26 England Southern Premier League Central	Leiston	4-1	Kettering
12/08/25 England Southern Premier League Central	Kettering	3-0 HT 2-0	Leiston
01/03/25 England Southern Premier League Central	Leiston	0-2	Kettering
23/11/24 England Southern Premier League Central	Kettering	2-1	Leiston
09/04/24 England Southern Premier League Central	Kettering	2-2 HT 1-2	Leiston
24/10/23 England Southern Premier League Central	Leiston	0-2	Kettering

Standings · England Southern Premier League Central

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Real Bedford	11	10	1	0	34	11	31
2	Bury Town	12	10	0	2	21	13	30
3	Bromsgrove	12	8	3	1	21	11	27
4	Rushall Olympic	13	8	0	5	27	20	24
5	Peterborough Sports	13	6	5	2	25	18	23
6	Alvechurch	11	6	3	2	18	6	21
7	Needham Market	12	6	2	4	26	18	20
8	Kettering	11	5	4	2	18	9	19
9	Anstey Nomads	11	5	4	2	20	16	19
10	Halesowen	10	5	2	3	12	11	17
11	Stourbridge	12	4	4	4	14	16	16
12	Redditch	11	3	5	3	17	16	14
13	Racing Club Warwick	12	3	5	4	15	16	14
14	Leiston	10	3	3	4	17	17	12
15	Stratford Town	12	2	5	5	12	20	11
16	Leamington	12	2	4	6	16	20	10
17	Bishop's Stortford	11	3	1	7	13	20	10
18	Banbury	12	2	4	6	15	23	10
19	Worcester City	11	1	4	6	8	16	7
20	Hitchin	12	1	4	7	8	19	7
21	Leighton Town	11	1	2	8	13	25	5
22	Stamford	12	0	1	11	3	32	1

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Kettering	Leiston
Anstey Nomads	4-1 W	1-1 D
Rushall Olympic	2-3 L	1-2 L
Peterborough Sports	0-0 D	0-2 L
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 1 L	0 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Kettering (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Kettering

DWDDWWLWDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
13/10	Bromsgrove England Southern Premier League Central	1-0	1-2	2	4	L
10/10	Halesowen England Southern Premier League Central	–	1-1	–	–	D
29/09	Anstey Nomads England Southern Premier League Central	4-1	4-1	3	3	W
22/09	Rushall Olympic England Southern Premier League Central	1-2	2-3	11	3	L
12/09	Stratford Town England Southern Premier League Central	–	1-0	–	–	W
31/08	Stamford England Southern Premier League Central	1-0	5-0	8	6	W
29/08	Hitchin England Southern Premier League Central	–	1-1	–	–	D
22/08	Peterborough Sports England Southern Premier League Central	–	0-0	–	–	D
15/08	Leamington England Southern Premier League Central	–	1-0	–	–	W
11/08	Leighton Town England Southern Premier League Central	0-1	1-1	10	4	D

Leiston

DWLDWLWLLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/10	Racing Club Warwick England Southern Premier League Central	0-0	0-0	6	5	D
29/09	Real Bedford England Southern Premier League Central	0-0	2-3	5	5	L
22/09	Peterborough Sports England Southern Premier League Central	0-1	0-2	10	0	L
12/09	Banbury England Southern Premier League Central	1-1	2-1	7	4	W
31/08	Bury Town England Southern Premier League Central	–	3-4	–	–	L
29/08	Redditch England Southern Premier League Central	3-0	3-1	5	8	W
22/08	Stourbridge England Southern Premier League Central	–	2-2	–	–	D
15/08	Rushall Olympic England Southern Premier League Central	1-1	1-2	5	4	L
11/08	Bishop's Stortford England Southern Premier League Central	2-0	3-1	5	3	W
08/08	Anstey Nomads England Southern Premier League Central	0-1	1-1	5	5	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Kettering vs Leiston?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Kettering win (51%). Probabilities: Kettering 51%, draw 24%, Leiston 25%.

How many goals are expected in Kettering vs Leiston?

The model expects 3.12 goals (Kettering 1.87 · Leiston 1.25), with a 52% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Kettering vs Leiston?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.