Football · England Southern Premier League Central · 20/10, 20:45

Prediction: Real Bedford vs Bury Town

Team pages: Real Bedford · Bury Town

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.5Total

Real Bedford2.22

Bury Town1.28

1X2

58% 22% 20%

Real Bedford Draw Bury Town

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 58%

Most likely score

2-1 10%

Recent form · 10 last

Real Bedford 9-1-0 (W-D-L)

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Bury Town 8-0-2 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Real Bedford 2–0 Bury Town (2 last)

Bury Town0-1Real Bedford
Real Bedford2-0Bury Town

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Real Bedford 1598 · Bury Town 1544

	Real Bedford	Draw	Bury Town
Our model	58%	22%	20%
Market	57%	23%	20%

Estimated total (ours) 3.5 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 73%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Real Bedford (rating 1598 vs 1544).
H2H favours Real Bedford: 2-0-0.
Cards-heavy: 5.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Real Bedford	Bury Town
Goals for / against (FT)	3 / 0.9	1.9 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)	1.4 / 0.4	1 / 1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/50/0%	40/20/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.6 / 6.1	2.8 / 4.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.3 / 0.1	2.4 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.57

X4.00

24.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1)1.98

2 (+1)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 32.00

Under 31.80

Diff.: 0.55 · xG: 3.55

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 12:38

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.57 → 1.57	Bet365 1.57
X	4.00 → 4.00	Bet365 4.00
2	4.50 → 4.50	Bet365 4.50

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 10.9%

Time*	1	X	2
12:21 +17’	1.57	4.00	4.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Real Bedford 2–0–0 Bury Town

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Date	Home	Score	Away
18/11/25 England Southern Premier League Central	Bury Town	0-1 HT 0-1	Real Bedford
09/09/25 England Southern Premier League Central	Real Bedford	2-0 HT 2-0	Bury Town

Standings · England Southern Premier League Central

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Real Bedford	11	10	1	0	34	11	31
2	Bury Town	12	10	0	2	21	13	30
3	Bromsgrove	12	8	3	1	21	11	27
4	Rushall Olympic	13	8	0	5	27	20	24
5	Peterborough Sports	13	6	5	2	25	18	23
6	Alvechurch	11	6	3	2	18	6	21
7	Needham Market	12	6	2	4	26	18	20
8	Kettering	11	5	4	2	18	9	19
9	Anstey Nomads	11	5	4	2	20	16	19
10	Halesowen	10	5	2	3	12	11	17
11	Stourbridge	12	4	4	4	14	16	16
12	Redditch	11	3	5	3	17	16	14
13	Racing Club Warwick	12	3	5	4	15	16	14
14	Leiston	10	3	3	4	17	17	12
15	Stratford Town	12	2	5	5	12	20	11
16	Leamington	12	2	4	6	16	20	10
17	Bishop's Stortford	11	3	1	7	13	20	10
18	Banbury	12	2	4	6	15	23	10
19	Worcester City	11	1	4	6	8	16	7
20	Hitchin	12	1	4	7	8	19	7
21	Leighton Town	11	1	2	8	13	25	5
22	Stamford	12	0	1	11	3	32	1

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Real Bedford	Bury Town
Bromsgrove	1-1 D	0-1 L
Leiston	3-2 W	4-3 W
Stourbridge	4-1 W	2-0 W
Leighton Town	3-2 W	3-2 W
Stratford Town	6-1 W	3-1 W
Record vs common	4 W 1 D 0 L	4 W 0 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Real Bedford (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Real Bedford

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/10	Stamford England Southern Premier League Central	–	4-0	–	–	W
10/10	Bromsgrove England Southern Premier League Central	–	1-1	–	–	D
29/09	Leiston England Southern Premier League Central	0-0	3-2	10	5	W
22/09	Stourbridge England Southern Premier League Central	2-1	4-1	8	4	W
12/09	Redditch England Southern Premier League Central	1-1	2-1	5	4	W
31/08	Leighton Town England Southern Premier League Central	3-0	3-2	3	5	W
29/08	Halesowen England Southern Premier League Central	0-0	2-0	3	3	W
22/08	Stratford Town England Southern Premier League Central	2-0	6-1	9	5	W
15/08	Banbury England Southern Premier League Central	1-1	3-1	7	1	W
11/08	Peterborough Sports England Southern Premier League Central	2-0	2-0	4	0	W

Bury Town

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/10	Stourbridge England Southern Premier League Central	–	2-0	–	–	W
13/10	Needham Market England Southern Premier League Central	0-3	0-5	3	2	L
10/10	Alvechurch England Southern Premier League Central	–	1-0	–	–	W
29/09	Bishop's Stortford England Southern Premier League Central	1-0	2-1	4	3	W
22/09	Hitchin England Southern Premier League Central	–	1-0	–	–	W
12/09	Bromsgrove England Southern Premier League Central	0-0	0-1	6	2	L
31/08	Leiston England Southern Premier League Central	–	4-3	–	–	W
29/08	Leighton Town England Southern Premier League Central	1-2	3-2	6	2	W
22/08	Leamington England Southern Premier League Central	–	3-0	–	–	W
15/08	Stratford Town England Southern Premier League Central	3-0	3-1	2	3	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Real Bedford vs Bury Town?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Real Bedford win (58%). Probabilities: Real Bedford 58%, draw 22%, Bury Town 20%.

How many goals are expected in Real Bedford vs Bury Town?

The model expects 3.5 goals (Real Bedford 2.22 · Bury Town 1.28), with a 53% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Real Bedford vs Bury Town?

The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.