Football · England Southern Premier League Central · 10/10, 16:00

Prediction: Racing Club Warwick vs Leiston

Team pages: Racing Club Warwick · Leiston

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.07Total

Racing Club Warwick1.53

Leiston1.55

1X2

37% 25% 38%

Racing Club Warwick Draw Leiston

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 63% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Racing Club Warwick 2-4-4 (W-D-L)

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Leiston 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

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Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Racing Club Warwick 1479 · Leiston 1515

	Racing Club Warwick	Draw	Leiston
Our model	37%	26%	37%
Market	37%	25%	38%

Estimated total (ours) 3.07 goals · Bet365 line 3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 60%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 6.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Racing Club Warwick	Leiston
Goals for / against (FT)	1.1 / 1.4	1.8 / 1.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.8	1 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/20/60%	38/38/25%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.4 / 4.2	2.6 / 5.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3 / 0.4	3.8 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.40

X3.60

22.35

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.95

2 (0)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 32.00

Under 31.80

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 3.05

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 13:33

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.40 → 2.40	Bet365 2.40
X	3.60 → 3.60	Bet365 3.60
2	2.35 → 2.35	Bet365 2.35

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12%

Time*	1	X	2
13:29 +4’	2.40	3.60	2.35

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Standings · England Southern Premier League Central

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Real Bedford	9	9	0	0	29	10	27
2	Bury Town	9	8	0	1	18	8	24
3	Bromsgrove	9	7	1	1	17	8	22
4	Alvechurch	9	6	2	1	17	4	20
5	Kettering	9	5	3	1	16	6	18
6	Rushall Olympic	10	6	0	4	21	17	18
7	Peterborough Sports	10	4	4	2	19	15	16
8	Anstey Nomads	9	4	3	2	16	13	15
9	Needham Market	9	4	1	4	18	16	13
10	Halesowen	7	4	0	3	8	8	12
11	Leiston	9	3	2	4	17	17	11
12	Redditch	9	2	4	3	12	13	10
13	Racing Club Warwick	10	2	4	4	11	14	10
14	Bishop's Stortford	9	3	1	5	10	13	10
15	Stourbridge	9	2	4	3	9	12	10
16	Leamington	9	2	3	4	12	14	9
17	Worcester City	9	1	4	4	7	12	7
18	Hitchin	10	1	4	5	7	16	7
19	Banbury	9	1	3	5	9	16	6
20	Stratford Town	9	1	3	5	9	18	6
21	Leighton Town	9	1	2	6	12	20	5
22	Stamford	9	0	0	9	1	25	0

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Racing Club Warwick	Leiston
Stourbridge	1-0 W	2-2 D
Redditch	1-2 L	3-1 W
Anstey Nomads	2-3 L	1-1 D
Alvechurch	0-2 L	1-1 D
Banbury	1-2 L	2-1 W
Peterborough Sports	1-1 D	0-2 L
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 4 L	2 W 3 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Leiston (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Racing Club Warwick

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
03/10	Stourbridge England Southern Premier League Central	1-0	1-0	1	6	W
29/09	Worcester City England Southern Premier League Central	0-1	2-2	5	1	D
21/09	Redditch England Southern Premier League Central	0-1	1-2	9	2	L
12/09	Anstey Nomads England Southern Premier League Central	0-1	2-3	2	7	L
31/08	Stratford Town England Southern Premier League Central	–	0-0	–	–	D
29/08	Alvechurch England Southern Premier League Central	–	0-2	–	–	L
22/08	Hitchin England Southern Premier League Central	–	1-1	–	–	D
15/08	Stamford England Southern Premier League Central	–	2-1	–	–	W
11/08	Banbury England Southern Premier League Central	1-1	1-2	4	1	L
08/08	Peterborough Sports England Southern Premier League Central	–	1-1	–	–	D

Leiston

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
29/09	Real Bedford England Southern Premier League Central	0-0	2-3	5	5	L
22/09	Peterborough Sports England Southern Premier League Central	0-1	0-2	10	0	L
12/09	Banbury England Southern Premier League Central	1-1	2-1	7	4	W
31/08	Bury Town England Southern Premier League Central	–	3-4	–	–	L
29/08	Redditch England Southern Premier League Central	3-0	3-1	5	8	W
22/08	Stourbridge England Southern Premier League Central	–	2-2	–	–	D
15/08	Rushall Olympic England Southern Premier League Central	1-1	1-2	5	4	L
11/08	Bishop's Stortford England Southern Premier League Central	2-0	3-1	5	3	W
08/08	Anstey Nomads England Southern Premier League Central	0-1	1-1	5	5	D
25/04	Alvechurch England Southern Premier League Central	1-0	1-1	1	2	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Racing Club Warwick vs Leiston?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Leiston win (38%). Probabilities: Racing Club Warwick 37%, draw 25%, Leiston 38%.

How many goals are expected in Racing Club Warwick vs Leiston?

The model expects 3.07 goals (Racing Club Warwick 1.53 · Leiston 1.55), with a 53% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Racing Club Warwick vs Leiston?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.