Football · England Southern Premier League Central · 17/10, 16:00

Prediction: Leamington vs Needham Market

Team pages: Leamington · Needham Market

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.31Total

Leamington1.61

Needham Market1.7

1X2

36% 25% 40%

Leamington Draw Needham Market

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 58% Both teams to score 58%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Leamington 2-4-4 (W-D-L)

DLLDWLDWLD

Needham Market 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

WLLWDWWLDW

Head-to-head

Leamington 0–1–3 Needham Market (4 last)

Needham Market1-1Leamington
Leamington0-1Needham Market
Leamington0-1Needham Market
Needham Market2-1Leamington

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Leamington 1461 · Needham Market 1549

	Leamington	Draw	Needham Market
Our model	36%	25%	39%
Market	36%	25%	40%

Estimated total (ours) 3.31 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 73%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Needham Market (rating 1461 vs 1549).
H2H favours Needham Market: 3-1-0.
Cards-heavy: 4.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Leamington	Needham Market
Goals for / against (FT)	1.3 / 1.4	2.3 / 1.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.8	1.7 / 0.9
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/25/25%	57/14/29%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.5 / 5.3	1.7 / 4.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.8 / 0	2.1 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

12.50

X3.60

22.25

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)2.00

2 (0)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 31.98

Under 31.82

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 3.2

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 12:25

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.50 → 2.50	Bet365 2.50
X	3.60 → 3.60	Bet365 3.60
2	2.25 → 2.25	Bet365 2.25

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12.2%

Time*	1	X	2
11:43 +42’	2.50	3.60	2.25

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Leamington 0–1–3 Needham Market

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Date	Home	Score	Away
25/02/25 England National League North	Needham Market	1-1 HT 0-0	Leamington
26/11/24 England National League North	Leamington	0-1 HT 0-0	Needham Market
24/02/24 England Southern Premier League Central	Leamington	0-1 HT 0-0	Needham Market
05/12/23 England Southern Premier League Central	Needham Market	2-1 HT 2-1	Leamington

Standings · England Southern Premier League Central

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Real Bedford	10	9	1	0	30	11	28
2	Bury Town	11	9	0	2	19	13	27
3	Bromsgrove	11	8	2	1	20	10	26
4	Peterborough Sports	12	6	4	2	24	17	22
5	Alvechurch	11	6	3	2	18	6	21
6	Rushall Olympic	12	7	0	5	24	20	21
7	Kettering	11	5	4	2	18	9	19
8	Anstey Nomads	11	5	4	2	20	16	19
9	Needham Market	11	5	2	4	24	17	17
10	Stourbridge	11	4	4	3	14	14	16
11	Redditch	11	3	5	3	17	16	14
12	Halesowen	9	4	2	3	10	10	14
13	Leiston	10	3	3	4	17	17	12
14	Racing Club Warwick	11	2	5	4	11	14	11
15	Leamington	11	2	4	5	15	18	10
16	Bishop's Stortford	10	3	1	6	11	16	10
17	Stratford Town	11	2	4	5	11	19	10
18	Banbury	11	2	3	6	14	22	9
19	Worcester City	11	1	4	6	8	16	7
20	Hitchin	11	1	4	6	7	17	7
21	Leighton Town	10	1	2	7	13	22	5
22	Stamford	11	0	1	10	3	28	1

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Leamington	Needham Market
Stratford Town	1-2 L	2-1 W
Hitchin	4-0 W	3-1 W
Worcester City	1-1 D	2-0 W
Bury Town	0-3 L	5-0 W
Anstey Nomads	1-1 D	1-1 D
Record vs common	1 W 2 D 2 L	4 W 1 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Needham Market (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Leamington

DLLDWLDWLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
13/10	Redditch England Southern Premier League Central	0-2	2-2	10	6	D
10/10	Stratford Town England Southern Premier League Central	–	1-2	–	–	L
03/10	Hitchin England Southern Premier League Central	1-0	4-0	3	0	W
29/09	Bromsgrove England Southern Premier League Central	1-1	1-1	6	3	D
12/09	Bishop's Stortford England Southern Premier League Central	–	1-3	–	–	L
01/09	Stourbridge England Southern Premier League Central	1-0	2-0	2	2	W
29/08	Worcester City England Southern Premier League Central	–	1-1	–	–	D
22/08	Bury Town England Southern Premier League Central	–	0-3	–	–	L
15/08	Kettering England Southern Premier League Central	–	0-1	–	–	L
11/08	Anstey Nomads England Southern Premier League Central	–	1-1	–	–	D

Needham Market

WLLWDWWLDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
13/10	Bury Town England Southern Premier League Central	3-0	5-0	10	2	W
10/10	Anstey Nomads England Southern Premier League Central	1-1	1-1	2	2	D
03/10	Rushall Olympic England Southern Premier League Central	1-3	3-5	0	5	L
29/09	Stamford England Southern Premier League Central	4-0	4-0	5	2	W
12/09	Worcester City England Southern Premier League Central	1-0	2-0	3	3	W
31/08	Peterborough Sports England Southern Premier League Central	0-1	3-3	4	2	D
29/08	Stratford Town England Southern Premier League Central	–	2-1	–	–	W
22/08	Halesowen England Southern Premier League Central	–	0-1	–	–	L
15/08	Alvechurch England Southern Premier League Central	–	0-2	–	–	L
11/08	Hitchin England Southern Premier League Central	2-1	3-1	6	2	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Leamington vs Needham Market?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Needham Market win (40%). Probabilities: Leamington 36%, draw 25%, Needham Market 40%.

How many goals are expected in Leamington vs Needham Market?

The model expects 3.31 goals (Leamington 1.61 · Needham Market 1.7), with a 51% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Leamington vs Needham Market?

The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.