Football · England Southern Premier League Central · 17/10, 16:00
Prediction: Halesowen vs Hitchin
Team pages: Halesowen · Hitchin
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.29Total
Halesowen1.42
Hitchin0.86
1X2
Halesowen
Draw
Hitchin
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 60%
Both teams to score 50%
Most likely score
1-1 14%
Recent form · 10 last
Halesowen
4-2-4 (W-D-L)
Hitchin
1-4-5 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Halesowen
2–1–3
Hitchin
(6 last)
- Hitchin1-2Halesowen
- Halesowen0-4Hitchin
- Hitchin0-1Halesowen
- Halesowen1-3Hitchin
- Halesowen0-0Hitchin
- Hitchin5-1Halesowen
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Halesowen 1521 · Hitchin 1440
| Halesowen | Draw | Hitchin | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 49% | 30% | 22% |
| Market | 51% | 25% | 24% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.29 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · -0.5
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 62%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Halesowen (rating 1521 vs 1440).
- H2H favours Hitchin: 3-1-2.
- Cards-heavy: 6.8 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Halesowen | Hitchin | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1 / 1.1 | 0.6 / 1.5 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.2 / 0.2 | 0.3 / 0.7 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/60/20% | 17/33/50% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.4 / 4.2 | 2.2 / 4.5 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 5.6 / 0.2 | 1.2 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Halesowen 2–1–3 Hitchin
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 15/03/25 England Southern Premier League Central | Hitchin | 1-2 | Halesowen |
| 21/09/24 England Southern Premier League Central | Halesowen | 0-4 | Hitchin |
| 13/04/24 England Southern Premier League Central | Hitchin | 0-1 | Halesowen |
| 04/11/23 England Southern Premier League Central | Halesowen | 1-3 HT 0-1 | Hitchin |
| 09/03/19 England Southern Premier League Central | Halesowen | 0-0 | Hitchin |
| 15/12/18 England Southern Premier League Central | Hitchin | 5-1 HT 2-1 | Halesowen |
Standings · England Southern Premier League Central
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Real Bedford | 10 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 30 | 11 | 28 |
| 2 | Bury Town | 11 | 9 | 0 | 2 | 19 | 13 | 27 |
| 3 | Bromsgrove | 11 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 20 | 10 | 26 |
| 4 | Peterborough Sports | 12 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 24 | 17 | 22 |
| 5 | Alvechurch | 11 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 18 | 6 | 21 |
| 6 | Rushall Olympic | 12 | 7 | 0 | 5 | 24 | 20 | 21 |
| 7 | Kettering | 11 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 18 | 9 | 19 |
| 8 | Anstey Nomads | 11 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 20 | 16 | 19 |
| 9 | Needham Market | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 24 | 17 | 17 |
| 10 | Stourbridge | 11 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 14 | 14 | 16 |
| 11 | Redditch | 11 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 17 | 16 | 14 |
| 12 | Halesowen | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 10 | 10 | 14 |
| 13 | Leiston | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 17 | 17 | 12 |
| 14 | Racing Club Warwick | 11 | 2 | 5 | 4 | 11 | 14 | 11 |
| 15 | Leamington | 11 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 15 | 18 | 10 |
| 16 | Bishop's Stortford | 10 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 11 | 16 | 10 |
| 17 | Stratford Town | 11 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 11 | 19 | 10 |
| 18 | Banbury | 11 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 14 | 22 | 9 |
| 19 | Worcester City | 11 | 1 | 4 | 6 | 8 | 16 | 7 |
| 20 | Hitchin | 11 | 1 | 4 | 6 | 7 | 17 | 7 |
| 21 | Leighton Town | 10 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 13 | 22 | 5 |
| 22 | Stamford | 11 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 3 | 28 | 1 |
Common opponents 6 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Halesowen | Hitchin |
|---|---|---|
| Kettering | 1-1 D | 1-1 D |
| Leighton Town | 4-2 W | 1-0 W |
| Redditch | 1-3 L | 1-1 D |
| Needham Market | 1-0 W | 1-3 L |
| Bishop's Stortford | 1-0 W | 0-2 L |
| Bury Town | 0-1 L | 0-1 L |
| Record vs common | 3 W 1 D 2 L | 1 W 2 D 3 L |
Better against common opponents: Halesowen (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Halesowen
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/10 | Alvechurch England Southern Premier League Central |
0-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 2 | D |
| 10/10 | Kettering England Southern Premier League Central |
– | 1-1 | – | – | D |
| 29/09 | Rushall Olympic England Southern Premier League Central |
1-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 6 | W |
| 12/09 | Leighton Town England Southern Premier League Central |
– | 4-2 | – | – | W |
| 31/08 | Redditch England Southern Premier League Central |
0-1 | 1-3 | 6 | 11 | L |
| 29/08 | Real Bedford England Southern Premier League Central |
0-0 | 0-2 | 2 | 3 | L |
| 22/08 | Needham Market England Southern Premier League Central |
– | 1-0 | – | – | W |
| 15/08 | Bishop's Stortford England Southern Premier League Central |
– | 1-0 | – | – | W |
| 08/08 | Bury Town England Southern Premier League Central |
– | 0-1 | – | – | L |
| 29/04 | Spalding United England Southern Premier League Central |
0-0 | 0-1 | 5 | 7 | L |
Hitchin
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/10 | Peterborough Sports England Southern Premier League Central |
0-0 | 0-1 | 5 | 1 | L |
| 03/10 | Leamington England Southern Premier League Central |
0-1 | 0-4 | 6 | 0 | L |
| 29/09 | Leighton Town England Southern Premier League Central |
1-0 | 1-0 | 7 | 0 | W |
| 22/09 | Bury Town England Southern Premier League Central |
– | 0-1 | – | – | L |
| 12/09 | Stourbridge England Southern Premier League Central |
0-0 | 1-1 | 4 | 2 | D |
| 31/08 | Bishop's Stortford England Southern Premier League Central |
– | 0-2 | – | – | L |
| 29/08 | Kettering England Southern Premier League Central |
– | 1-1 | – | – | D |
| 22/08 | Racing Club Warwick England Southern Premier League Central |
– | 1-1 | – | – | D |
| 15/08 | Redditch England Southern Premier League Central |
0-1 | 1-1 | 3 | 2 | D |
| 11/08 | Needham Market England Southern Premier League Central |
1-2 | 1-3 | 2 | 2 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Halesowen vs Hitchin?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Halesowen win (50%). Probabilities: Halesowen 50%, draw 27%, Hitchin 23%.
How many goals are expected in Halesowen vs Hitchin?
The model expects 2.29 goals (Halesowen 1.42 · Hitchin 0.86), with a 59% chance of under 2.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Halesowen vs Hitchin?
The model gives a 50% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.