Football · England Southern Premier League Central · 17/10, 16:00

Prediction: Stamford vs Real Bedford

Team pages: Stamford · Real Bedford

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.48Total

Stamford0.94

Real Bedford2.55

1X2

11% 17% 72%

Stamford Draw Real Bedford

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

0-2 10%

Recent form · 10 last

Stamford 0-1-9 (W-D-L)

LLLLLLLLLD

Real Bedford 9-1-0 (W-D-L)

WWWWWWWWWD

Head-to-head

Stamford 0–3 Real Bedford (3 last)

Real Bedford3-0Stamford
Stamford1-3Real Bedford
Real Bedford3-1Stamford

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Stamford 1350 · Real Bedford 1604

	Stamford	Draw	Real Bedford
Our model	11%	18%	71%
Market	11%	17%	72%

Estimated total (ours) 3.48 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 66%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Real Bedford (rating 1350 vs 1604).
H2H favours Real Bedford: 3-0-0.
Cards-heavy: 6.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Stamford	Real Bedford
Goals for / against (FT)	0.3 / 2.6	3 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0 / 1.3	1.3 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	0/50/50%	44/56/0%
Corners (HT / FT)	0.8 / 1.3	3.8 / 6.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3 / 0	3.4 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

18.00

X5.25

21.25

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+1.75)1.98

2 (-1.75)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.95

Under 3.251.85

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 3.5

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 12:25

	Bet365	Best now
1	8.00 → 8.00	Bet365 8.00
X	5.25 → 5.25	Bet365 5.25
2	1.25 → 1.25	Bet365 1.25

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.5%

Time*	1	X	2
12:18 +7’	8.00	5.25	1.25

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Stamford 0–0–3 Real Bedford

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
21/03/26 England Southern Premier League Central	Real Bedford	3-0	Stamford
08/11/25 England Southern Premier League Central	Stamford	1-3	Real Bedford
04/10/25 England FA Trophy	Real Bedford	3-1	Stamford

Standings · England Southern Premier League Central

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Real Bedford	10	9	1	0	30	11	28
2	Bury Town	11	9	0	2	19	13	27
3	Bromsgrove	11	8	2	1	20	10	26
4	Peterborough Sports	12	6	4	2	24	17	22
5	Alvechurch	11	6	3	2	18	6	21
6	Rushall Olympic	12	7	0	5	24	20	21
7	Kettering	11	5	4	2	18	9	19
8	Anstey Nomads	11	5	4	2	20	16	19
9	Needham Market	11	5	2	4	24	17	17
10	Stourbridge	11	4	4	3	14	14	16
11	Redditch	11	3	5	3	17	16	14
12	Halesowen	9	4	2	3	10	10	14
13	Leiston	10	3	3	4	17	17	12
14	Racing Club Warwick	11	2	5	4	11	14	11
15	Leamington	11	2	4	5	15	18	10
16	Bishop's Stortford	10	3	1	6	11	16	10
17	Stratford Town	11	2	4	5	11	19	10
18	Banbury	11	2	3	6	14	22	9
19	Worcester City	11	1	4	6	8	16	7
20	Hitchin	11	1	4	6	7	17	7
21	Leighton Town	10	1	2	7	13	22	5
22	Stamford	11	0	1	10	3	28	1

Common opponents 2 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Stamford	Real Bedford
Stratford Town	0-0 D	6-1 W
Banbury	2-3 L	3-1 W
Record vs common	0 W 1 D 1 L	2 W 0 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Real Bedford (2 of 2 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Stamford

LLLLLLLLLD

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
13/10	Stratford Town England Southern Premier League Central	0-0	0-0	2	1	D
10/10	Banbury England Southern Premier League Central	–	2-3	–	–	L
29/09	Needham Market England Southern Premier League Central	0-4	0-4	1	2	L
19/09	Bishop's Stortford England Southern Premier League Central	–	0-3	–	–	L
12/09	Alvechurch England Southern Premier League Central	–	0-4	–	–	L
31/08	Kettering England Southern Premier League Central	0-1	0-5	0	6	L
29/08	Rushall Olympic England Southern Premier League Central	0-0	0-3	2	3	L
22/08	Worcester City England Southern Premier League Central	–	0-1	–	–	L
15/08	Racing Club Warwick England Southern Premier League Central	–	1-2	–	–	L
11/08	Bury Town England Southern Premier League Central	–	0-1	–	–	L

Real Bedford

WWWWWWWWWD

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/10	Bromsgrove England Southern Premier League Central	–	1-1	–	–	D
29/09	Leiston England Southern Premier League Central	0-0	3-2	10	5	W
22/09	Stourbridge England Southern Premier League Central	2-1	4-1	8	4	W
12/09	Redditch England Southern Premier League Central	1-1	2-1	5	4	W
31/08	Leighton Town England Southern Premier League Central	3-0	3-2	3	5	W
29/08	Halesowen England Southern Premier League Central	0-0	2-0	3	3	W
22/08	Stratford Town England Southern Premier League Central	2-0	6-1	9	5	W
15/08	Banbury England Southern Premier League Central	1-1	3-1	7	1	W
11/08	Peterborough Sports England Southern Premier League Central	2-0	2-0	4	0	W
08/08	Leamington England Southern Premier League Central	1-1	4-2	9	5	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Stamford vs Real Bedford?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Real Bedford win (72%). Probabilities: Stamford 11%, draw 17%, Real Bedford 72%.

How many goals are expected in Stamford vs Real Bedford?

The model expects 3.48 goals (Stamford 0.94 · Real Bedford 2.55), with a 50% chance of over 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Stamford vs Real Bedford?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 0-2.