Football · England Southern Premier League Central · 17/10, 16:00

Prediction: Bury Town vs Stourbridge

Team pages: Bury Town · Stourbridge

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.97Total

Bury Town1.66

Stourbridge1.32

1X2

45% 26% 30%

Bury Town Draw Stourbridge

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 57% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Bury Town 8-0-2 (W-D-L)

WWWWWLWWWL

Stourbridge 3-4-3 (W-D-L)

WDDLDLDLWW

Head-to-head

Bury Town 0–1–1 Stourbridge (2 last)

Bury Town1-1Stourbridge
Stourbridge2-0Bury Town

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Bury Town 1557 · Stourbridge 1505

	Bury Town	Draw	Stourbridge
Our model	44%	26%	29%
Market	45%	26%	30%

Estimated total (ours) 2.97 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 66%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Bury Town (rating 1557 vs 1505).
High corners: 12 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Bury Town	Stourbridge
Goals for / against (FT)	1.8 / 1.3	1.2 / 1.4
Goals for / against (HT)	1 / 1	0.6 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/20/40%	20/20/60%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.8 / 4.2	3.8 / 7.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.4 / 0	3.6 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

12.00

X3.50

23.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.80

2 (+0.25)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.98

Under 2.751.82

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 2.85

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 12:25

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.00 → 2.00	Bet365 2.00
X	3.50 → 3.50	Bet365 3.50
2	3.00 → 3.00	Bet365 3.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.9%

Time*	1	X	2
12:14 +11’	2.00	3.50	3.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Bury Town 0–1–1 Stourbridge

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Date	Home	Score	Away
20/12/25 England Southern Premier League Central	Bury Town	1-1	Stourbridge
09/08/25 England Southern Premier League Central	Stourbridge	2-0	Bury Town

Standings · England Southern Premier League Central

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Real Bedford	10	9	1	0	30	11	28
2	Bury Town	11	9	0	2	19	13	27
3	Bromsgrove	11	8	2	1	20	10	26
4	Peterborough Sports	12	6	4	2	24	17	22
5	Alvechurch	11	6	3	2	18	6	21
6	Rushall Olympic	12	7	0	5	24	20	21
7	Kettering	11	5	4	2	18	9	19
8	Anstey Nomads	11	5	4	2	20	16	19
9	Needham Market	11	5	2	4	24	17	17
10	Stourbridge	11	4	4	3	14	14	16
11	Redditch	11	3	5	3	17	16	14
12	Halesowen	9	4	2	3	10	10	14
13	Leiston	10	3	3	4	17	17	12
14	Racing Club Warwick	11	2	5	4	11	14	11
15	Leamington	11	2	4	5	15	18	10
16	Bishop's Stortford	10	3	1	6	11	16	10
17	Stratford Town	11	2	4	5	11	19	10
18	Banbury	11	2	3	6	14	22	9
19	Worcester City	11	1	4	6	8	16	7
20	Hitchin	11	1	4	6	7	17	7
21	Leighton Town	10	1	2	7	13	22	5
22	Stamford	11	0	1	10	3	28	1

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Bury Town	Stourbridge
Alvechurch	1-0 W	0-0 D
Hitchin	1-0 W	1-1 D
Leiston	4-3 W	2-2 D
Leighton Town	3-2 W	2-1 W
Leamington	3-0 W	0-2 L
Record vs common	5 W 0 D 0 L	1 W 3 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Bury Town (4 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Bury Town

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
13/10	Needham Market England Southern Premier League Central	0-3	0-5	3	2	L
10/10	Alvechurch England Southern Premier League Central	–	1-0	–	–	W
29/09	Bishop's Stortford England Southern Premier League Central	1-0	2-1	4	3	W
22/09	Hitchin England Southern Premier League Central	–	1-0	–	–	W
12/09	Bromsgrove England Southern Premier League Central	0-0	0-1	6	2	L
31/08	Leiston England Southern Premier League Central	–	4-3	–	–	W
29/08	Leighton Town England Southern Premier League Central	1-2	3-2	6	2	W
22/08	Leamington England Southern Premier League Central	–	3-0	–	–	W
15/08	Stratford Town England Southern Premier League Central	3-0	3-1	2	3	W
11/08	Stamford England Southern Premier League Central	–	1-0	–	–	W

Stourbridge

WDDLDLDLWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
13/10	Worcester City England Southern Premier League Central	2-0	3-1	6	5	W
10/10	Leighton Town England Southern Premier League Central	–	2-1	–	–	W
03/10	Racing Club Warwick England Southern Premier League Central	0-1	0-1	12	6	L
29/09	Alvechurch England Southern Premier League Central	–	0-0	–	–	D
22/09	Real Bedford England Southern Premier League Central	1-2	1-4	4	4	L
12/09	Hitchin England Southern Premier League Central	0-0	1-1	9	2	D
01/09	Leamington England Southern Premier League Central	0-1	0-2	8	2	L
29/08	Banbury England Southern Premier League Central	–	1-1	–	–	D
22/08	Leiston England Southern Premier League Central	–	2-2	–	–	D
15/08	Peterborough Sports England Southern Premier League Central	–	2-1	–	–	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Bury Town vs Stourbridge?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Bury Town win (45%). Probabilities: Bury Town 45%, draw 26%, Stourbridge 30%.

How many goals are expected in Bury Town vs Stourbridge?

The model expects 2.97 goals (Bury Town 1.66 · Stourbridge 1.32), with a 51% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Bury Town vs Stourbridge?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.