Football · England Southern Premier League Central · 29/09, 20:45
Prediction: Alvechurch vs Stourbridge
Team pages: Alvechurch · Stourbridge
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.02Total
Alvechurch1.8
Stourbridge1.22
1X2
Alvechurch
Draw
Stourbridge
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 64%
Both teams to score 56%
Most likely score
1-1 12%
Recent form · 10 last
Alvechurch
6-2-2 (W-D-L)
Stourbridge
4-3-3 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Alvechurch
2–1–3
Stourbridge
(6 last)
- Stourbridge1-1Alvechurch
- Alvechurch1-2Stourbridge
- Stourbridge1-0Alvechurch
- Stourbridge0-1Alvechurch
- Alvechurch1-2Stourbridge
- Alvechurch1-0Stourbridge
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Alvechurch 1553 · Stourbridge 1505
| Alvechurch | Draw | Stourbridge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 50% | 25% | 25% |
| Market | 50% | 25% | 25% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.02 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.3
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 60%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Alvechurch (rating 1553 vs 1505).
- H2H favours Stourbridge: 3-1-2.
- High corners: 12.1 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 5.9 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Alvechurch | Stourbridge | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2 / 0.8 | 1.4 / 1.2 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0 / 1 | 0.4 / 0.8 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 0/0/100% | 20/20/60% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 3 / 5.5 | 2.8 / 6.6 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.5 / 0 | 2.4 / 0.2 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Alvechurch 2–1–3 Stourbridge
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 06/04/26 England Southern Premier League Central | Stourbridge | 1-1 | Alvechurch |
| 03/03/26 England Southern Premier League Central | Alvechurch | 1-2 HT 0-0 | Stourbridge |
| 29/03/25 England Southern Premier League Central | Stourbridge | 1-0 | Alvechurch |
| 26/10/24 England FA Trophy | Stourbridge | 0-1 | Alvechurch |
| 28/09/24 England Southern Premier League Central | Alvechurch | 1-2 | Stourbridge |
| 16/03/24 England Southern Premier League Central | Alvechurch | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Stourbridge |
Standings · England Southern Premier League Central
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Real Bedford | 8 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 26 | 8 | 24 |
| 2 | Bromsgrove | 8 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 16 | 7 | 21 |
| 2 | Bury Town | 8 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 16 | 7 | 21 |
| 4 | Alvechurch | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 17 | 4 | 19 |
| 5 | Kettering | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 12 | 5 | 15 |
| 6 | Anstey Nomads | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 15 | 9 | 15 |
| 7 | Rushall Olympic | 8 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 16 | 13 | 15 |
| 8 | Peterborough Sports | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 13 | 11 | 12 |
| 9 | Leiston | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 15 | 14 | 11 |
| 10 | Needham Market | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 11 | 11 | 10 |
| 11 | Bishop's Stortford | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 9 | 11 | 10 |
| 12 | Redditch | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 10 | 11 | 9 |
| 13 | Halesowen | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 8 | 9 |
| 14 | Stourbridge | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 9 | 11 | 9 |
| 15 | Racing Club Warwick | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 8 | 12 | 6 |
| 16 | Worcester City | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 10 | 6 |
| 17 | Banbury | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 7 | 13 | 6 |
| 18 | Leighton Town | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 10 | 15 | 5 |
| 19 | Leamington | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 7 | 13 | 5 |
| 20 | Hitchin | 8 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 12 | 4 |
| 21 | Stratford Town | 8 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 6 | 16 | 3 |
| 22 | Stamford | 8 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 1 | 21 | 0 |
Common opponents 4 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Alvechurch | Stourbridge |
|---|---|---|
| Stamford | 4-0 W | 2-0 W |
| Needham Market | 2-0 W | 0-1 L |
| Leiston | 1-1 D | 2-2 D |
| Real Bedford | 2-3 L | 1-4 L |
| Record vs common | 2 W 1 D 1 L | 1 W 1 D 2 L |
Better against common opponents: Alvechurch (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Alvechurch
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/09 | Anstey Nomads England Southern Premier League Central |
0-1 | 2-2 | 5 | 5 | D |
| 12/09 | Stamford England Southern Premier League Central |
– | 4-0 | – | – | W |
| 31/08 | Rushall Olympic England Southern Premier League Central |
– | 1-0 | – | – | W |
| 29/08 | Racing Club Warwick England Southern Premier League Central |
– | 2-0 | – | – | W |
| 22/08 | Bishop's Stortford England Southern Premier League Central |
– | 3-0 | – | – | W |
| 15/08 | Needham Market England Southern Premier League Central |
– | 2-0 | – | – | W |
| 11/08 | Worcester City England Southern Premier League Central |
– | 3-1 | – | – | W |
| 08/08 | Kettering England Southern Premier League Central |
– | 0-1 | – | – | L |
| 25/04 | Leiston England Southern Premier League Central |
0-1 | 1-1 | 6 | 2 | D |
| 18/04 | Real Bedford England Southern Premier League Central |
– | 2-3 | – | – | L |
Stourbridge
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/09 | Real Bedford England Southern Premier League Central |
1-2 | 1-4 | 4 | 4 | L |
| 12/09 | Hitchin England Southern Premier League Central |
0-0 | 1-1 | 9 | 2 | D |
| 01/09 | Leamington England Southern Premier League Central |
0-1 | 0-2 | 8 | 2 | L |
| 29/08 | Banbury England Southern Premier League Central |
– | 1-1 | – | – | D |
| 22/08 | Leiston England Southern Premier League Central |
– | 2-2 | – | – | D |
| 15/08 | Peterborough Sports England Southern Premier League Central |
– | 2-1 | – | – | W |
| 08/08 | Stamford England Southern Premier League Central |
1-0 | 2-0 | 7 | 1 | W |
| 25/04 | Royston Town England Southern Premier League Central |
– | 1-0 | – | – | W |
| 18/04 | AFC Sudbury England Southern Premier League Central |
– | 4-0 | – | – | W |
| 15/04 | Needham Market England Southern Premier League Central |
0-1 | 0-1 | 5 | 4 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Alvechurch vs Stourbridge?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Alvechurch win (50%). Probabilities: Alvechurch 50%, draw 25%, Stourbridge 25%.
How many goals are expected in Alvechurch vs Stourbridge?
The model expects 3.02 goals (Alvechurch 1.8 · Stourbridge 1.22), with a 51% chance of over 2.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Alvechurch vs Stourbridge?
The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.