Football · England Southern Premier League Central · 29/09, 20:45

Prediction: Real Bedford vs Leiston

Team pages: Real Bedford · Leiston

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.41Total

Real Bedford2.4

Leiston1.01

1X2

67% 19% 14%

Real Bedford Draw Leiston

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 56% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

2-1 10%

Recent form · 10 last

Real Bedford 9-1-0 (W-D-L)

WDWWWWWWWW

Leiston 3-4-3 (W-D-L)

DDDWLDWLWL

Head-to-head

Real Bedford 0–2 Leiston (2 last)

Real Bedford0-1Leiston
Leiston1-0Real Bedford

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Real Bedford 1599 · Leiston 1523

	Real Bedford	Draw	Leiston
Our model	67%	19%	14%
Market	67%	19%	14%

Estimated total (ours) 3.41 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 65%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Real Bedford (rating 1599 vs 1523).
H2H favours Leiston: 2-0-0.
High corners: 11.4 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 7.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Real Bedford	Leiston
Goals for / against (FT)	3.1 / 1.1	1.8 / 1.7
Goals for / against (HT)	1.3 / 0.5	1.1 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/40/10%	43/29/29%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.1 / 6	2.9 / 5.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.8 / 0.1	3.6 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.33

X4.80

26.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.5)1.93

2 (+1.5)1.88

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.93

Under 3.251.88

Diff.: 0.6 · xG: 3.85

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 12:38

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.33 → 1.33	Bet365 1.33
X	4.80 → 4.80	Bet365 4.80
2	6.50 → 6.50	Bet365 6.50

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.2%

Time*	1	X	2
12:23 +15’	1.33	4.80	6.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Real Bedford 0–0–2 Leiston

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Date	Home	Score	Away
14/04/26 England Southern Premier League Central	Real Bedford	0-1 HT 0-1	Leiston
29/11/25 England Southern Premier League Central	Leiston	1-0	Real Bedford

Standings · England Southern Premier League Central

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Real Bedford	8	8	0	0	26	8	24
2	Bromsgrove	8	7	0	1	16	7	21
2	Bury Town	8	7	0	1	16	7	21
4	Alvechurch	8	6	1	1	17	4	19
5	Kettering	8	4	3	1	12	5	15
6	Anstey Nomads	8	4	3	1	15	9	15
7	Rushall Olympic	8	5	0	3	16	13	15
8	Peterborough Sports	8	3	3	2	13	11	12
9	Leiston	8	3	2	3	15	14	11
10	Needham Market	7	3	1	3	11	11	10
11	Bishop's Stortford	8	3	1	4	9	11	10
12	Redditch	8	2	3	3	10	11	9
13	Halesowen	6	3	0	3	7	8	9
14	Stourbridge	7	2	3	2	9	11	9
15	Racing Club Warwick	8	1	3	4	8	12	6
16	Worcester City	8	1	3	4	5	10	6
17	Banbury	8	1	3	4	7	13	6
18	Leighton Town	7	1	2	4	10	15	5
19	Leamington	7	1	2	4	7	13	5
20	Hitchin	8	0	4	4	6	12	4
21	Stratford Town	8	0	3	5	6	16	3
22	Stamford	8	0	0	8	1	21	0

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Real Bedford	Leiston
Stourbridge	4-1 W	2-2 D
Redditch	2-1 W	3-1 W
Banbury	3-1 W	2-1 W
Peterborough Sports	2-0 W	0-2 L
Spalding United	2-2 D	2-2 D
Record vs common	4 W 1 D 0 L	2 W 2 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Real Bedford (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Real Bedford

WDWWWWWWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
22/09	Stourbridge England Southern Premier League Central	2-1	4-1	8	4	W
12/09	Redditch England Southern Premier League Central	1-1	2-1	5	4	W
31/08	Leighton Town England Southern Premier League Central	3-0	3-2	3	5	W
29/08	Halesowen England Southern Premier League Central	0-0	2-0	3	3	W
22/08	Stratford Town England Southern Premier League Central	2-0	6-1	9	5	W
15/08	Banbury England Southern Premier League Central	1-1	3-1	7	1	W
11/08	Peterborough Sports England Southern Premier League Central	2-0	2-0	4	0	W
08/08	Leamington England Southern Premier League Central	1-1	4-2	9	5	W
04/05	Spalding United England Southern Premier League Central	0-1	2-2	7	6	D
29/04	Kettering England Southern Premier League Central	1-0	3-1	5	6	W

Leiston

DDDWLDWLWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
22/09	Peterborough Sports England Southern Premier League Central	0-1	0-2	10	0	L
12/09	Banbury England Southern Premier League Central	1-1	2-1	7	4	W
31/08	Bury Town England Southern Premier League Central	–	3-4	–	–	L
29/08	Redditch England Southern Premier League Central	3-0	3-1	5	8	W
22/08	Stourbridge England Southern Premier League Central	–	2-2	–	–	D
15/08	Rushall Olympic England Southern Premier League Central	1-1	1-2	5	4	L
11/08	Bishop's Stortford England Southern Premier League Central	2-0	3-1	5	3	W
08/08	Anstey Nomads England Southern Premier League Central	0-1	1-1	5	5	D
25/04	Alvechurch England Southern Premier League Central	1-0	1-1	1	2	D
18/04	Spalding United England Southern Premier League Central	–	2-2	–	–	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Real Bedford vs Leiston?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Real Bedford win (67%). Probabilities: Real Bedford 67%, draw 19%, Leiston 14%.

How many goals are expected in Real Bedford vs Leiston?

The model expects 3.41 goals (Real Bedford 2.4 · Leiston 1.01), with a 50% chance of over 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Real Bedford vs Leiston?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.