Football · England Southern Premier League Central · 29/09, 20:45

Prediction: Needham Market vs Stamford

Team pages: Needham Market · Stamford

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.73Total

Needham Market2

Stamford0.73

1X2

67% 21% 12%

Needham Market Draw Stamford

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 50%

Most likely score

2-0 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Needham Market 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

WDLLWLLWDW

Stamford 1-1-8 (W-D-L)

WDLLLLLLLL

Head-to-head

Needham Market 2–2 Stamford (4 last)

Stamford1-0Needham Market
Needham Market4-1Stamford
Needham Market0-3Stamford
Stamford0-3Needham Market

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Needham Market 1511 · Stamford 1390

	Needham Market	Draw	Stamford
Our model	66%	22%	12%
Market	68%	20%	13%

Estimated total (ours) 2.73 goals · Bet365 line 3 · -0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 56%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Needham Market (rating 1511 vs 1390).
Cards-heavy: 6.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Needham Market	Stamford
Goals for / against (FT)	1.4 / 1.5	0.4 / 2.1
Goals for / against (HT)	1 / 0.8	0.3 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/17/33%	25/25/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.8 / 4.2	1.5 / 2.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.8 / 0.5	3.3 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.33

X4.60

27.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.5)1.95

2 (+1.5)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 31.98

Under 31.82

Diff.: 0.3 · xG: 2.7

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 12:38

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.33 → 1.33	Bet365 1.33
X	4.60 → 4.60	Bet365 4.60
2	7.00 → 7.00	Bet365 7.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11%

Time*	1	X	2
12:34 +4’	1.33	4.60	7.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Needham Market 2–0–2 Stamford

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
24/01/26 England Southern Premier League Central	Stamford	1-0	Needham Market
20/09/25 England Southern Premier League Central	Needham Market	4-1 HT 1-0	Stamford
09/04/24 England Southern Premier League Central	Needham Market	0-3 HT 0-1	Stamford
24/10/23 England Southern Premier League Central	Stamford	0-3	Needham Market

Standings · England Southern Premier League Central

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Real Bedford	8	8	0	0	26	8	24
2	Bromsgrove	8	7	0	1	16	7	21
2	Bury Town	8	7	0	1	16	7	21
4	Alvechurch	8	6	1	1	17	4	19
5	Kettering	8	4	3	1	12	5	15
6	Anstey Nomads	8	4	3	1	15	9	15
7	Rushall Olympic	8	5	0	3	16	13	15
8	Peterborough Sports	8	3	3	2	13	11	12
9	Leiston	8	3	2	3	15	14	11
10	Needham Market	7	3	1	3	11	11	10
11	Bishop's Stortford	8	3	1	4	9	11	10
12	Redditch	8	2	3	3	10	11	9
13	Halesowen	6	3	0	3	7	8	9
14	Stourbridge	7	2	3	2	9	11	9
15	Racing Club Warwick	8	1	3	4	8	12	6
16	Worcester City	8	1	3	4	5	10	6
17	Banbury	8	1	3	4	7	13	6
18	Leighton Town	7	1	2	4	10	15	5
19	Leamington	7	1	2	4	7	13	5
20	Hitchin	8	0	4	4	6	12	4
21	Stratford Town	8	0	3	5	6	16	3
22	Stamford	8	0	0	8	1	21	0

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Needham Market	Stamford
Worcester City	2-0 W	0-1 L
Alvechurch	0-2 L	0-4 L
Stourbridge	1-0 W	0-2 L
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 1 L	0 W 0 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Needham Market (3 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Needham Market

WDLLWLLWDW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
12/09	Worcester City England Southern Premier League Central	1-0	2-0	3	3	W
31/08	Peterborough Sports England Southern Premier League Central	0-1	3-3	4	2	D
29/08	Stratford Town England Southern Premier League Central	–	2-1	–	–	W
22/08	Halesowen England Southern Premier League Central	–	0-1	–	–	L
15/08	Alvechurch England Southern Premier League Central	–	0-2	–	–	L
11/08	Hitchin England Southern Premier League Central	2-1	3-1	6	2	W
08/08	Bromsgrove England Southern Premier League Central	1-2	1-3	2	3	L
25/04	Banbury England Southern Premier League Central	–	0-2	–	–	L
18/04	Quorn England Southern Premier League Central	1-1	2-2	4	6	D
15/04	Stourbridge England Southern Premier League Central	1-0	1-0	6	4	W

Stamford

WDLLLLLLLL

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/09	Bishop's Stortford England Southern Premier League Central	–	0-3	–	–	L
12/09	Alvechurch England Southern Premier League Central	–	0-4	–	–	L
31/08	Kettering England Southern Premier League Central	0-1	0-5	0	6	L
29/08	Rushall Olympic England Southern Premier League Central	0-0	0-3	2	3	L
22/08	Worcester City England Southern Premier League Central	–	0-1	–	–	L
15/08	Racing Club Warwick England Southern Premier League Central	–	1-2	–	–	L
11/08	Bury Town England Southern Premier League Central	–	0-1	–	–	L
08/08	Stourbridge England Southern Premier League Central	0-1	0-2	3	1	L
25/04	Harborough Town England Southern Premier League Central	–	0-0	–	–	D
18/04	Royston Town England Southern Premier League Central	1-0	3-0	4	3	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Needham Market vs Stamford?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Needham Market win (67%). Probabilities: Needham Market 67%, draw 21%, Stamford 12%.

How many goals are expected in Needham Market vs Stamford?

The model expects 2.73 goals (Needham Market 2 · Stamford 0.73), with a 57% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Needham Market vs Stamford?

The model gives a 50% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.