Football · England Southern Premier League Central · 22/09, 20:45

Prediction: Worcester City vs Banbury

Team pages: Worcester City · Banbury

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.37Total

Worcester City1.39

Banbury0.98

1X2

46% 27% 26%

Worcester City Draw Banbury

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 51%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Worcester City 1-4-5 (W-D-L)

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Banbury 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Worcester City 0–1–1 Banbury (2 last)

Worcester City0-1Banbury
Banbury1-1Worcester City

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Worcester City 1470 · Banbury 1463

	Worcester City	Draw	Banbury
Our model	45%	30%	25%
Market	47%	26%	27%

Estimated total (ours) 2.37 goals · Bet365 line 2.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 52%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 5.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Worcester City	Banbury
Goals for / against (FT)	1.2 / 1.8	0.9 / 1.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.8	0.8 / 1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/20/60%	0/75/25%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.8 / 4.8	1.8 / 5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	1.8 / 0.4	3.5 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.91

X3.50

23.30

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.98

2 (+0.5)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.98

Under 2.51.82

Diff.: 0.3 · xG: 2.8

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 16:20

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.91 → 1.91	Bet365 1.91
X	3.50 → 3.50	Bet365 3.50
2	3.30 → 3.30	Bet365 3.30

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.3%

Time*	1	X	2
16:14 +6’	1.91	3.50	3.30

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Worcester City 0–1–1 Banbury

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Date	Home	Score	Away
10/01/26 England Southern Premier League Central	Worcester City	0-1 HT 0-0	Banbury
12/08/25 England Southern Premier League Central	Banbury	1-1 HT 1-0	Worcester City

Standings · England Southern Premier League Central

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Real Bedford	7	7	0	0	22	7	21
2	Alvechurch	7	6	0	1	15	2	18
3	Bury Town	7	6	0	1	15	7	18
4	Bromsgrove	7	6	0	1	13	5	18
5	Kettering	7	4	3	0	10	2	15
6	Anstey Nomads	7	4	2	1	13	7	14
7	Rushall Olympic	7	4	0	3	13	11	12
8	Leiston	7	3	2	2	15	12	11
9	Needham Market	7	3	1	3	11	11	10
10	Bishop's Stortford	8	3	1	4	9	11	10
11	Stourbridge	6	2	3	1	8	7	9
12	Peterborough Sports	7	2	3	2	11	11	9
13	Halesowen	6	3	0	3	7	8	9
14	Redditch	7	1	3	3	8	10	6
15	Racing Club Warwick	7	1	3	3	7	10	6
16	Leighton Town	7	1	2	4	10	15	5
17	Worcester City	7	1	2	4	5	10	5
18	Banbury	7	1	2	4	7	13	5
18	Leamington	7	1	2	4	7	13	5
20	Hitchin	7	0	4	3	6	11	4
21	Stratford Town	7	0	3	4	4	13	3
22	Stamford	8	0	0	8	1	21	0

Common opponents 2 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Worcester City	Banbury
Needham Market	0-2 L	2-0 W
Stamford	1-0 W	0-4 L
Record vs common	1 W 0 D 1 L	1 W 0 D 1 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Worcester City

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
12/09	Needham Market England Southern Premier League Central	0-1	0-2	2	3	L
31/08	Bromsgrove England Southern Premier League Central	0-1	0-1	3	4	L
29/08	Leamington England Southern Premier League Central	–	1-1	–	–	D
22/08	Stamford England Southern Premier League Central	–	1-0	–	–	W
15/08	Leighton Town England Southern Premier League Central	1-0	1-2	4	0	L
11/08	Alvechurch England Southern Premier League Central	–	1-3	–	–	L
08/08	Stratford Town England Southern Premier League Central	0-1	1-1	11	3	D
25/04	Spalding United England Southern Premier League Central	–	4-4	–	–	D
18/04	St Ives Town England Southern Premier League Central	–	2-2	–	–	D
11/04	Kettering England Southern Premier League Central	1-1	1-2	4	1	L

Banbury

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
12/09	Leiston England Southern Premier League Central	1-1	1-2	7	4	L
31/08	Anstey Nomads England Southern Premier League Central	–	0-3	–	–	L
29/08	Stourbridge England Southern Premier League Central	–	1-1	–	–	D
22/08	Rushall Olympic England Southern Premier League Central	–	2-3	–	–	L
15/08	Real Bedford England Southern Premier League Central	1-1	1-3	3	1	L
11/08	Racing Club Warwick England Southern Premier League Central	1-1	2-1	8	1	W
08/08	Bishop's Stortford England Southern Premier League Central	–	0-0	–	–	D
25/04	Needham Market England Southern Premier League Central	–	2-0	–	–	W
18/04	Redditch England Southern Premier League Central	–	0-0	–	–	D
14/04	Stamford England Southern Premier League Central	0-1	0-4	2	8	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Worcester City vs Banbury?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Worcester City win (46%). Probabilities: Worcester City 46%, draw 27%, Banbury 26%.

How many goals are expected in Worcester City vs Banbury?

The model expects 2.37 goals (Worcester City 1.39 · Banbury 0.98), with a 55% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Worcester City vs Banbury?

The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.