Football · England Southern Premier League Central · 29/09, 20:45

Prediction: Bishop's Stortford vs Bury Town

Team pages: Bishop's Stortford · Bury Town

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.94Total

Bishop's Stortford1.27

Bury Town1.68

1X2

28% 26% 46%

Bishop's Stortford Draw Bury Town

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 56% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Bishop's Stortford 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

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Bury Town 8-0-2 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Bishop's Stortford 0–1–1 Bury Town (2 last)

Bury Town2-0Bishop's Stortford
Bishop's Stortford0-0Bury Town

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Bishop's Stortford 1450 · Bury Town 1590

	Bishop's Stortford	Draw	Bury Town
Our model	28%	26%	46%
Market	28%	26%	46%

Estimated total (ours) 2.94 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 62%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Bury Town (rating 1450 vs 1590).
Cards-heavy: 6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Bishop's Stortford	Bury Town
Goals for / against (FT)	1.1 / 1.5	1.9 / 0.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 0.7	1.3 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	33/33/33%	50/25/25%
Corners (HT / FT)	1 / 2.3	2.8 / 5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4 / 0	2 / 0

Odds Bet365

13.20

X3.50

21.95

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.5)1.77

2 (-0.5)2.02

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.93

Under 2.751.88

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 2.65

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 12:38

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.20 → 3.20	Bet365 3.20
X	3.50 → 3.50	Bet365 3.50
2	1.95 → 1.95	Bet365 1.95

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.1%

Time*	1	X	2
12:14 +24’	3.20	3.50	1.95

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Bishop's Stortford 0–1–1 Bury Town

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Date	Home	Score	Away
07/03/26 England Southern Premier League Central	Bury Town	2-0	Bishop's Stortford
22/11/25 England Southern Premier League Central	Bishop's Stortford	0-0	Bury Town

Standings · England Southern Premier League Central

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Real Bedford	8	8	0	0	26	8	24
2	Bromsgrove	8	7	0	1	16	7	21
2	Bury Town	8	7	0	1	16	7	21
4	Alvechurch	8	6	1	1	17	4	19
5	Kettering	8	4	3	1	12	5	15
6	Anstey Nomads	8	4	3	1	15	9	15
7	Rushall Olympic	8	5	0	3	16	13	15
8	Peterborough Sports	8	3	3	2	13	11	12
9	Leiston	8	3	2	3	15	14	11
10	Needham Market	7	3	1	3	11	11	10
11	Bishop's Stortford	8	3	1	4	9	11	10
12	Redditch	8	2	3	3	10	11	9
13	Halesowen	6	3	0	3	7	8	9
14	Stourbridge	7	2	3	2	9	11	9
15	Racing Club Warwick	8	1	3	4	8	12	6
16	Worcester City	8	1	3	4	5	10	6
17	Banbury	8	1	3	4	7	13	6
18	Leighton Town	7	1	2	4	10	15	5
19	Leamington	7	1	2	4	7	13	5
20	Hitchin	8	0	4	4	6	12	4
21	Stratford Town	8	0	3	5	6	16	3
22	Stamford	8	0	0	8	1	21	0

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Bishop's Stortford	Bury Town
Stamford	3-0 W	1-0 W
Leamington	3-1 W	3-0 W
Hitchin	2-0 W	1-0 W
Bromsgrove	0-3 L	0-1 L
Halesowen	0-1 L	1-0 W
Leiston	1-3 L	4-3 W
Barwell	1-3 L	3-0 W
Record vs common	3 W 0 D 4 L	6 W 0 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Bury Town (5 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Bishop's Stortford

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/09	Stamford England Southern Premier League Central	–	3-0	–	–	W
12/09	Leamington England Southern Premier League Central	–	3-1	–	–	W
31/08	Hitchin England Southern Premier League Central	–	2-0	–	–	W
29/08	Bromsgrove England Southern Premier League Central	0-0	0-3	4	2	L
22/08	Alvechurch England Southern Premier League Central	–	0-3	–	–	L
15/08	Halesowen England Southern Premier League Central	–	0-1	–	–	L
11/08	Leiston England Southern Premier League Central	0-2	1-3	2	3	L
08/08	Banbury England Southern Premier League Central	–	0-0	–	–	D
25/04	Barwell England Southern Premier League Central	1-0	1-3	1	7	L
18/04	Harborough Town England Southern Premier League Central	–	1-1	–	–	D

Bury Town

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
22/09	Hitchin England Southern Premier League Central	–	1-0	–	–	W
12/09	Bromsgrove England Southern Premier League Central	0-0	0-1	6	2	L
31/08	Leiston England Southern Premier League Central	–	4-3	–	–	W
29/08	Leighton Town England Southern Premier League Central	1-2	3-2	6	2	W
22/08	Leamington England Southern Premier League Central	–	3-0	–	–	W
15/08	Stratford Town England Southern Premier League Central	3-0	3-1	2	3	W
11/08	Stamford England Southern Premier League Central	–	1-0	–	–	W
08/08	Halesowen England Southern Premier League Central	–	1-0	–	–	W
25/04	Kettering England Southern Premier League Central	–	0-1	–	–	L
18/04	Barwell England Southern Premier League Central	1-0	3-0	6	1	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Bishop's Stortford vs Bury Town?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Bury Town win (46%). Probabilities: Bishop's Stortford 28%, draw 26%, Bury Town 46%.

How many goals are expected in Bishop's Stortford vs Bury Town?

The model expects 2.94 goals (Bishop's Stortford 1.27 · Bury Town 1.68), with a 50% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Bishop's Stortford vs Bury Town?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.