Football · England Southern Premier League Central · 22/09, 20:45

Prediction: Stourbridge vs Real Bedford

Team pages: Stourbridge · Real Bedford

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.59Total

Stourbridge1.39

Real Bedford2.2

1X2

23% 23% 55%

Stourbridge Draw Real Bedford

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 59%

Most likely score

1-1 9%

Recent form · 10 last

Stourbridge 4-4-2 (W-D-L)

DLWWWWDDLD

Real Bedford 9-1-0 (W-D-L)

WWDWWWWWWW

Head-to-head

Stourbridge 1–1 Real Bedford (2 last)

Stourbridge2-1Real Bedford
Real Bedford3-1Stourbridge

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Stourbridge 1473 · Real Bedford 1632

	Stourbridge	Draw	Real Bedford
Our model	23%	22%	55%
Market	22%	23%	54%

Estimated total (ours) 3.59 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.8

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 68%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Real Bedford (rating 1473 vs 1632).
High corners: 13 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 5.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Stourbridge	Real Bedford
Goals for / against (FT)	1.4 / 0.9	3 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 0.5	1.2 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	25/25/50%	44/44/11%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.3 / 7.3	3 / 5.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2 / 0.3	3.8 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

14.00

X3.90

21.65

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.75)1.95

2 (-0.75)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.82

Under 2.751.98

Diff.: 0.45 · xG: 3.2

Market movement

Match winner · 3 moves · last 22:14

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.70 → 4.50▲	Bet365 4.50
X	3.80 → 4.00▲	Bet365 4.00
2	1.73 → 1.55▼	Bet365 1.55

See the full journey (3)

Bet365 margin 11.7%

Time*	1	X	2
16:14 +6’	3.70	3.80	1.73
18:33 +8’	4.00▲	3.90▲	1.65▼
22:13 +1’	4.50▲	4.00▲	1.55▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Stourbridge 1–0–1 Real Bedford

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Date	Home	Score	Away
21/02/26 England Southern Premier League Central	Stourbridge	2-1	Real Bedford
21/10/25 England Southern Premier League Central	Real Bedford	3-1	Stourbridge

Standings · England Southern Premier League Central

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Real Bedford	7	7	0	0	22	7	21
2	Alvechurch	7	6	0	1	15	2	18
3	Bury Town	7	6	0	1	15	7	18
4	Bromsgrove	7	6	0	1	13	5	18
5	Kettering	7	4	3	0	10	2	15
6	Anstey Nomads	7	4	2	1	13	7	14
7	Rushall Olympic	7	4	0	3	13	11	12
8	Leiston	7	3	2	2	15	12	11
9	Needham Market	7	3	1	3	11	11	10
10	Bishop's Stortford	8	3	1	4	9	11	10
11	Stourbridge	6	2	3	1	8	7	9
12	Peterborough Sports	7	2	3	2	11	11	9
13	Halesowen	6	3	0	3	7	8	9
14	Redditch	7	1	3	3	8	10	6
15	Racing Club Warwick	7	1	3	3	7	10	6
16	Leighton Town	7	1	2	4	10	15	5
17	Worcester City	7	1	2	4	5	10	5
18	Banbury	7	1	2	4	7	13	5
18	Leamington	7	1	2	4	7	13	5
20	Hitchin	7	0	4	3	6	11	4
21	Stratford Town	7	0	3	4	4	13	3
22	Stamford	8	0	0	8	1	21	0

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Stourbridge	Real Bedford
Leamington	0-2 L	4-2 W
Banbury	1-1 D	3-1 W
Peterborough Sports	2-1 W	2-0 W
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 1 L	3 W 0 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Real Bedford (3 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Stourbridge

DLWWWWDDLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
12/09	Hitchin England Southern Premier League Central	0-0	1-1	9	2	D
01/09	Leamington England Southern Premier League Central	0-1	0-2	8	2	L
29/08	Banbury England Southern Premier League Central	–	1-1	–	–	D
22/08	Leiston England Southern Premier League Central	–	2-2	–	–	D
15/08	Peterborough Sports England Southern Premier League Central	–	2-1	–	–	W
08/08	Stamford England Southern Premier League Central	1-0	2-0	7	1	W
25/04	Royston Town England Southern Premier League Central	–	1-0	–	–	W
18/04	AFC Sudbury England Southern Premier League Central	–	4-0	–	–	W
15/04	Needham Market England Southern Premier League Central	0-1	0-1	5	4	L
11/04	Bishop's Stortford England Southern Premier League Central	–	1-1	–	–	D

Real Bedford

WWDWWWWWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
12/09	Redditch England Southern Premier League Central	1-1	2-1	5	4	W
31/08	Leighton Town England Southern Premier League Central	3-0	3-2	3	5	W
29/08	Halesowen England Southern Premier League Central	0-0	2-0	3	3	W
22/08	Stratford Town England Southern Premier League Central	2-0	6-1	9	5	W
15/08	Banbury England Southern Premier League Central	1-1	3-1	7	1	W
11/08	Peterborough Sports England Southern Premier League Central	2-0	2-0	4	0	W
08/08	Leamington England Southern Premier League Central	1-1	4-2	9	5	W
04/05	Spalding United England Southern Premier League Central	0-1	2-2	7	6	D
29/04	Kettering England Southern Premier League Central	1-0	3-1	5	6	W
25/04	Bromsgrove England Southern Premier League Central	–	3-1	–	–	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Stourbridge vs Real Bedford?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Real Bedford win (55%). Probabilities: Stourbridge 23%, draw 23%, Real Bedford 55%.

How many goals are expected in Stourbridge vs Real Bedford?

The model expects 3.59 goals (Stourbridge 1.39 · Real Bedford 2.2), with a 58% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Stourbridge vs Real Bedford?

The model gives a 59% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.