Football · England Southern Premier League Central · 12/09, 16:00
Prediction: Alvechurch vs Stamford
Team pages: Alvechurch · Stamford
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.64Total
Alvechurch1.88
Stamford0.76
1X2
Alvechurch
Draw
Stamford
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 51%
Both teams to score 50%
Most likely score
2-0 13%
Recent form · 10 last
Alvechurch
6-2-2 (W-D-L)
Stamford
2-2-6 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Alvechurch
3–1–2
Stamford
(6 last)
- Alvechurch2-0Stamford
- Stamford0-0Alvechurch
- Stamford1-0Alvechurch
- Alvechurch0-1Stamford
- Alvechurch4-3Stamford
- Stamford0-1Alvechurch
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Alvechurch 1606 · Stamford 1386
| Alvechurch | Draw | Stamford | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 63% | 24% | 14% |
| Market | 64% | 21% | 15% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.64 goals · Bet365 line 2.75
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 55%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Alvechurch (rating 1606 vs 1386).
- H2H favours Alvechurch: 3-1-2.
- Cards-heavy: 6.2 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Alvechurch | Stamford | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.6 / 0.7 | 0.8 / 1.4 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0 / 1 | 0.4 / 0.4 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 0/0/100% | 40/20/40% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2 / 6 | 1.2 / 2.4 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2 / 0 | 4.2 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Alvechurch 3–1–2 Stamford
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 17/03/26 England Southern Premier League Central | Alvechurch | 2-0 | Stamford |
| 09/08/25 England Southern Premier League Central | Stamford | 0-0 | Alvechurch |
| 15/03/25 England Southern Premier League Central | Stamford | 1-0 | Alvechurch |
| 21/09/24 England Southern Premier League Central | Alvechurch | 0-1 | Stamford |
| 17/02/24 England Southern Premier League Central | Alvechurch | 4-3 | Stamford |
| 14/10/23 England Southern Premier League Central | Stamford | 0-1 | Alvechurch |
Standings · England Southern Premier League Central
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Real Bedford | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 20 | 6 | 18 |
| 2 | Bury Town | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 15 | 6 | 18 |
| 3 | Alvechurch | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 2 | 15 |
| 4 | Bromsgrove | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 5 | 15 |
| 5 | Kettering | 6 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 9 | 2 | 12 |
| 6 | Rushall Olympic | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 11 | 7 | 12 |
| 7 | Anstey Nomads | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 10 | 5 | 11 |
| 8 | Leiston | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 13 | 11 | 8 |
| 9 | Stourbridge | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 6 | 8 |
| 10 | Needham Market | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 9 | 11 | 7 |
| 11 | Redditch | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 8 | 6 |
| 12 | Peterborough Sports | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 9 | 6 |
| 13 | Racing Club Warwick | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 7 | 6 |
| 14 | Halesowen | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 6 |
| 15 | Leighton Town | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 8 | 11 | 5 |
| 16 | Worcester City | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 8 | 5 |
| 17 | Leamington | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 10 | 5 |
| 18 | Banbury | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 11 | 5 |
| 19 | Bishop's Stortford | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 10 | 4 |
| 20 | Hitchin | 6 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 10 | 3 |
| 21 | Stratford Town | 6 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 12 | 3 |
| 22 | Stamford | 6 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 14 | 0 |
Common opponents 6 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Alvechurch | Stamford |
|---|---|---|
| Rushall Olympic | 1-0 W | 0-3 L |
| Racing Club Warwick | 2-0 W | 1-2 L |
| Worcester City | 3-1 W | 0-1 L |
| Kettering | 0-1 L | 0-5 L |
| Royston Town | 1-0 W | 3-0 W |
| Stourbridge | 1-1 D | 0-2 L |
| Record vs common | 4 W 1 D 1 L | 1 W 0 D 5 L |
Better against common opponents: Alvechurch (5 of 6 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Alvechurch
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/08 | Rushall Olympic England Southern Premier League Central |
– | 1-0 | – | – | W |
| 29/08 | Racing Club Warwick England Southern Premier League Central |
– | 2-0 | – | – | W |
| 22/08 | Bishop's Stortford England Southern Premier League Central |
– | 3-0 | – | – | W |
| 15/08 | Needham Market England Southern Premier League Central |
– | 2-0 | – | – | W |
| 11/08 | Worcester City England Southern Premier League Central |
– | 3-1 | – | – | W |
| 08/08 | Kettering England Southern Premier League Central |
– | 0-1 | – | – | L |
| 25/04 | Leiston England Southern Premier League Central |
0-1 | 1-1 | 6 | 2 | D |
| 18/04 | Real Bedford England Southern Premier League Central |
– | 2-3 | – | – | L |
| 11/04 | Royston Town England Southern Premier League Central |
– | 1-0 | – | – | W |
| 06/04 | Stourbridge England Southern Premier League Central |
– | 1-1 | – | – | D |
Stamford
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/08 | Kettering England Southern Premier League Central |
0-1 | 0-5 | 0 | 6 | L |
| 29/08 | Rushall Olympic England Southern Premier League Central |
0-0 | 0-3 | 2 | 3 | L |
| 22/08 | Worcester City England Southern Premier League Central |
– | 0-1 | – | – | L |
| 15/08 | Racing Club Warwick England Southern Premier League Central |
– | 1-2 | – | – | L |
| 11/08 | Bury Town England Southern Premier League Central |
– | 0-1 | – | – | L |
| 08/08 | Stourbridge England Southern Premier League Central |
0-1 | 0-2 | 3 | 1 | L |
| 25/04 | Harborough Town England Southern Premier League Central |
– | 0-0 | – | – | D |
| 18/04 | Royston Town England Southern Premier League Central |
1-0 | 3-0 | 4 | 3 | W |
| 14/04 | Banbury England Southern Premier League Central |
1-0 | 4-0 | 3 | 8 | W |
| 11/04 | Bury Town England Southern Premier League Central |
– | 0-0 | – | – | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Alvechurch vs Stamford?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Alvechurch win (64%). Probabilities: Alvechurch 64%, draw 22%, Stamford 14%.
How many goals are expected in Alvechurch vs Stamford?
The model expects 2.64 goals (Alvechurch 1.88 · Stamford 0.76), with a 52% chance of under 2.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Alvechurch vs Stamford?
The model gives a 50% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.