Football · England Southern Premier League Central · 12/09, 16:00

Prediction: Bromsgrove vs Bury Town

Team pages: Bromsgrove · Bury Town

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.81Total

Bromsgrove1.5

Bury Town1.31

1X2

41% 26% 33%

Bromsgrove Draw Bury Town

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Bromsgrove 7-0-3 (W-D-L)

LWWLWWLWWW

Bury Town 8-1-1 (W-D-L)

WDWLWWWWWW

Head-to-head

Bromsgrove 0–2–0 Bury Town (2 last)

Bury Town1-1Bromsgrove
Bromsgrove2-2Bury Town

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Bromsgrove 1589 · Bury Town 1591

	Bromsgrove	Draw	Bury Town
Our model	41%	27%	32%
Market	42%	25%	33%

Estimated total (ours) 2.81 goals · Bet365 line 2.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 64%model estimate

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Bromsgrove	Bury Town
Goals for / against (FT)	1.7 / 1.1	2.1 / 0.8
Goals for / against (HT)	1 / 0.5	1.7 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/50/0%	67/0/33%
Corners (HT / FT)	2 / 5	2.3 / 4.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.3 / 0.3	2 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.15

X3.60

22.70

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.98

2 (+0.25)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.88

Under 2.751.93

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 2.85

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 16:28

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.15 → 2.15	Bet365 2.15
X	3.60 → 3.60	Bet365 3.60
2	2.70 → 2.70	Bet365 2.70

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.3%

Time*	1	X	2
16:18 +10’	2.15	3.60	2.70

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Bromsgrove 0–2–0 Bury Town

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Date	Home	Score	Away
17/01/26 England Southern Premier League Central	Bury Town	1-1	Bromsgrove
11/10/25 England Southern Premier League Central	Bromsgrove	2-2	Bury Town

Standings · England Southern Premier League Central

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Real Bedford	6	6	0	0	20	6	18
2	Bury Town	6	6	0	0	15	6	18
3	Alvechurch	6	5	0	1	11	2	15
4	Bromsgrove	6	5	0	1	12	5	15
5	Kettering	6	3	3	0	9	2	12
6	Rushall Olympic	6	4	0	2	11	7	12
7	Anstey Nomads	6	3	2	1	10	5	11
8	Leiston	6	2	2	2	13	11	8
9	Stourbridge	5	2	2	1	7	6	8
10	Needham Market	6	2	1	3	9	11	7
11	Redditch	6	1	3	2	7	8	6
12	Peterborough Sports	6	1	3	2	7	9	6
13	Racing Club Warwick	6	1	3	2	5	7	6
14	Halesowen	5	2	0	3	3	6	6
15	Leighton Town	6	1	2	3	8	11	5
16	Worcester City	6	1	2	3	5	8	5
17	Leamington	6	1	2	3	6	10	5
18	Banbury	6	1	2	3	6	11	5
19	Bishop's Stortford	6	1	1	4	3	10	4
20	Hitchin	6	0	3	3	5	10	3
21	Stratford Town	6	0	3	3	4	12	3
22	Stamford	6	0	0	6	1	14	0

Common opponents 2 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Bromsgrove	Bury Town
Stratford Town	2-1 W	3-1 W
Halesowen	0-2 L	1-0 W
Record vs common	1 W 0 D 1 L	2 W 0 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Bury Town (2 of 2 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Bromsgrove

LWWLWWLWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/08	Worcester City England Southern Premier League Central	1-0	1-0	5	4	W
29/08	Bishop's Stortford England Southern Premier League Central	0-0	3-0	6	2	W
22/08	Redditch England Southern Premier League Central	1-1	2-1	3	1	W
15/08	Anstey Nomads England Southern Premier League Central	–	1-2	–	–	L
11/08	Rushall Olympic England Southern Premier League Central	–	2-1	–	–	W
08/08	Needham Market England Southern Premier League Central	2-1	3-1	6	3	W
25/04	Real Bedford England Southern Premier League Central	–	1-3	–	–	L
18/04	Stratford Town England Southern Premier League Central	–	2-1	–	–	W
11/04	St Ives Town England Southern Premier League Central	–	2-0	–	–	W
06/04	Halesowen England Southern Premier League Central	–	0-2	–	–	L

Bury Town

WDWLWWWWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/08	Leiston England Southern Premier League Central	–	4-3	–	–	W
29/08	Leighton Town England Southern Premier League Central	1-2	3-2	6	2	W
22/08	Leamington England Southern Premier League Central	–	3-0	–	–	W
15/08	Stratford Town England Southern Premier League Central	3-0	3-1	2	3	W
11/08	Stamford England Southern Premier League Central	–	1-0	–	–	W
08/08	Halesowen England Southern Premier League Central	–	1-0	–	–	W
25/04	Kettering England Southern Premier League Central	–	0-1	–	–	L
18/04	Barwell England Southern Premier League Central	1-0	3-0	6	1	W
11/04	Stamford England Southern Premier League Central	–	0-0	–	–	D
06/04	Leiston England Southern Premier League Central	–	3-1	–	–	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Bromsgrove vs Bury Town?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Bromsgrove win (41%). Probabilities: Bromsgrove 41%, draw 26%, Bury Town 33%.

How many goals are expected in Bromsgrove vs Bury Town?

The model expects 2.81 goals (Bromsgrove 1.5 · Bury Town 1.31), with a 51% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Bromsgrove vs Bury Town?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.