Football · England Southern Premier League Central · 12/09, 16:00

Prediction: Needham Market vs Worcester City

Team pages: Needham Market · Worcester City

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.68Total

Needham Market1.44

Worcester City1.24

1X2

41% 27% 32%

Needham Market Draw Worcester City

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Needham Market 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

WWDLLWLLWD

Worcester City 2-4-4 (W-D-L)

WLDDDLLWDL

Head-to-head

Needham Market 1–1 Worcester City (2 last)

Worcester City1-0Needham Market
Needham Market1-0Worcester City

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Needham Market 1507 · Worcester City 1494

	Needham Market	Draw	Worcester City
Our model	40%	28%	31%
Market	42%	26%	33%

Estimated total (ours) 2.68 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 56%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 4.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Needham Market	Worcester City
Goals for / against (FT)	1.4 / 1.6	1.5 / 1.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 1	0.5 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	33/17/50%	25/25/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.2 / 4.8	2 / 5.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.8 / 0.3	1.8 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

12.15

X3.50

22.75

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.98

2 (+0.25)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.82

Under 2.51.98

Diff.: 0.6 · xG: 3.1

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 16:28

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.15 → 2.15	Bet365 2.15
X	3.50 → 3.50	Bet365 3.50
2	2.75 → 2.75	Bet365 2.75

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.4%

Time*	1	X	2
16:24 +4’	2.15	3.50	2.75

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Needham Market 1–0–1 Worcester City

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Date	Home	Score	Away
28/03/26 England Southern Premier League Central	Worcester City	1-0	Needham Market
16/08/25 England Southern Premier League Central	Needham Market	1-0 HT 1-0	Worcester City

Standings · England Southern Premier League Central

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Real Bedford	6	6	0	0	20	6	18
2	Bury Town	6	6	0	0	15	6	18
3	Alvechurch	6	5	0	1	11	2	15
4	Bromsgrove	6	5	0	1	12	5	15
5	Kettering	6	3	3	0	9	2	12
6	Rushall Olympic	6	4	0	2	11	7	12
7	Anstey Nomads	6	3	2	1	10	5	11
8	Leiston	6	2	2	2	13	11	8
9	Stourbridge	5	2	2	1	7	6	8
10	Needham Market	6	2	1	3	9	11	7
11	Redditch	6	1	3	2	7	8	6
12	Peterborough Sports	6	1	3	2	7	9	6
13	Racing Club Warwick	6	1	3	2	5	7	6
14	Halesowen	5	2	0	3	3	6	6
15	Leighton Town	6	1	2	3	8	11	5
16	Worcester City	6	1	2	3	5	8	5
17	Leamington	6	1	2	3	6	10	5
18	Banbury	6	1	2	3	6	11	5
19	Bishop's Stortford	6	1	1	4	3	10	4
20	Hitchin	6	0	3	3	5	10	3
21	Stratford Town	6	0	3	3	4	12	3
22	Stamford	6	0	0	6	1	14	0

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Needham Market	Worcester City
Stratford Town	2-1 W	1-1 D
Alvechurch	0-2 L	1-3 L
Bromsgrove	1-3 L	0-1 L
Record vs common	1 W 0 D 2 L	0 W 1 D 2 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Needham Market

WWDLLWLLWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/08	Peterborough Sports England Southern Premier League Central	0-1	3-3	4	2	D
29/08	Stratford Town England Southern Premier League Central	–	2-1	–	–	W
22/08	Halesowen England Southern Premier League Central	–	0-1	–	–	L
15/08	Alvechurch England Southern Premier League Central	–	0-2	–	–	L
11/08	Hitchin England Southern Premier League Central	2-1	3-1	6	2	W
08/08	Bromsgrove England Southern Premier League Central	1-2	1-3	2	3	L
25/04	Banbury England Southern Premier League Central	–	0-2	–	–	L
18/04	Quorn England Southern Premier League Central	1-1	2-2	4	6	D
15/04	Stourbridge England Southern Premier League Central	1-0	1-0	6	4	W
11/04	Barwell England Southern Premier League Central	0-1	2-1	7	2	W

Worcester City

WLDDDLLWDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/08	Bromsgrove England Southern Premier League Central	0-1	0-1	3	4	L
29/08	Leamington England Southern Premier League Central	–	1-1	–	–	D
22/08	Stamford England Southern Premier League Central	–	1-0	–	–	W
15/08	Leighton Town England Southern Premier League Central	1-0	1-2	4	0	L
11/08	Alvechurch England Southern Premier League Central	–	1-3	–	–	L
08/08	Stratford Town England Southern Premier League Central	0-1	1-1	11	3	D
25/04	Spalding United England Southern Premier League Central	–	4-4	–	–	D
18/04	St Ives Town England Southern Premier League Central	–	2-2	–	–	D
11/04	Kettering England Southern Premier League Central	1-1	1-2	4	1	L
06/04	Redditch England Southern Premier League Central	–	3-1	–	–	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Needham Market vs Worcester City?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Needham Market win (41%). Probabilities: Needham Market 41%, draw 27%, Worcester City 32%.

How many goals are expected in Needham Market vs Worcester City?

The model expects 2.68 goals (Needham Market 1.44 · Worcester City 1.24), with a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Needham Market vs Worcester City?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.