Football · England Southern Premier League Central · 12/09, 16:00

Prediction: Banbury vs Leiston

Team pages: Banbury · Leiston

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.54Total

Banbury1.31

Leiston1.24

1X2

38% 27% 35%

Banbury Draw Leiston

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Banbury 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

WLDWDWLLDL

Leiston 4-4-2 (W-D-L)

WWDDDWLDWL

Head-to-head

Banbury 3–1–2 Leiston (6 last)

Leiston1-0Banbury
Leiston0-3Banbury
Banbury1-1Leiston
Leiston3-0Banbury
Banbury1-0Leiston
Leiston0-2Banbury

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Banbury 1491 · Leiston 1538

	Banbury	Draw	Leiston
Our model	37%	29%	34%
Market	39%	25%	36%

Estimated total (ours) 2.54 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · -0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 56%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Leiston (rating 1491 vs 1538).
H2H favours Banbury: 3-1-2.
Cards-heavy: 7.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Banbury	Leiston
Goals for / against (FT)	1 / 1.5	1.9 / 1.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 1	1.3 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	0/67/33%	71/14/14%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.7 / 4.3	2.4 / 5.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.3 / 0	4.3 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.30

X3.60

22.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.80

2 (0)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.93

Under 2.751.88

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 2.95

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 16:28

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.30 → 2.30	Bet365 2.30
X	3.60 → 3.60	Bet365 3.60
2	2.50 → 2.50	Bet365 2.50

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.3%

Time*	1	X	2
16:18 +10’	2.30	3.60	2.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Banbury 3–1–2 Leiston

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Date	Home	Score	Away
28/03/26 England Southern Premier League Central	Leiston	1-0	Banbury
27/09/25 England FA Cup Qualification	Leiston	0-3	Banbury
16/08/25 England Southern Premier League Central	Banbury	1-1	Leiston
05/04/25 England Southern Premier League Central	Leiston	3-0	Banbury
24/08/24 England Southern Premier League Central	Banbury	1-0	Leiston
12/02/22 England Southern Premier League Central	Leiston	0-2	Banbury

Standings · England Southern Premier League Central

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Real Bedford	6	6	0	0	20	6	18
2	Bury Town	6	6	0	0	15	6	18
3	Alvechurch	6	5	0	1	11	2	15
4	Bromsgrove	6	5	0	1	12	5	15
5	Kettering	6	3	3	0	9	2	12
6	Rushall Olympic	6	4	0	2	11	7	12
7	Anstey Nomads	6	3	2	1	10	5	11
8	Leiston	6	2	2	2	13	11	8
9	Stourbridge	5	2	2	1	7	6	8
10	Needham Market	6	2	1	3	9	11	7
11	Redditch	6	1	3	2	7	8	6
12	Peterborough Sports	6	1	3	2	7	9	6
13	Racing Club Warwick	6	1	3	2	5	7	6
14	Halesowen	5	2	0	3	3	6	6
15	Leighton Town	6	1	2	3	8	11	5
16	Worcester City	6	1	2	3	5	8	5
17	Leamington	6	1	2	3	6	10	5
18	Banbury	6	1	2	3	6	11	5
19	Bishop's Stortford	6	1	1	4	3	10	4
20	Hitchin	6	0	3	3	5	10	3
21	Stratford Town	6	0	3	3	4	12	3
22	Stamford	6	0	0	6	1	14	0

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Banbury	Leiston
Anstey Nomads	0-3 L	1-1 D
Stourbridge	1-1 D	2-2 D
Rushall Olympic	2-3 L	1-2 L
Real Bedford	1-3 L	1-0 W
Bishop's Stortford	0-0 D	3-1 W
Redditch	0-0 D	3-1 W
Record vs common	0 W 3 D 3 L	3 W 2 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Leiston (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Banbury

WLDWDWLLDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/08	Anstey Nomads England Southern Premier League Central	–	0-3	–	–	L
29/08	Stourbridge England Southern Premier League Central	–	1-1	–	–	D
22/08	Rushall Olympic England Southern Premier League Central	–	2-3	–	–	L
15/08	Real Bedford England Southern Premier League Central	1-1	1-3	3	1	L
11/08	Racing Club Warwick England Southern Premier League Central	1-1	2-1	8	1	W
08/08	Bishop's Stortford England Southern Premier League Central	–	0-0	–	–	D
25/04	Needham Market England Southern Premier League Central	–	2-0	–	–	W
18/04	Redditch England Southern Premier League Central	–	0-0	–	–	D
14/04	Stamford England Southern Premier League Central	0-1	0-4	2	8	L
11/04	AFC Sudbury England Southern Premier League Central	–	2-0	–	–	W

Leiston

WWDDDWLDWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/08	Bury Town England Southern Premier League Central	–	3-4	–	–	L
29/08	Redditch England Southern Premier League Central	3-0	3-1	5	8	W
22/08	Stourbridge England Southern Premier League Central	–	2-2	–	–	D
15/08	Rushall Olympic England Southern Premier League Central	1-1	1-2	5	4	L
11/08	Bishop's Stortford England Southern Premier League Central	2-0	3-1	5	3	W
08/08	Anstey Nomads England Southern Premier League Central	0-1	1-1	5	5	D
25/04	Alvechurch England Southern Premier League Central	1-0	1-1	1	2	D
18/04	Spalding United England Southern Premier League Central	–	2-2	–	–	D
14/04	Real Bedford England Southern Premier League Central	1-0	1-0	6	4	W
11/04	Quorn England Southern Premier League Central	1-0	2-1	9	5	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Banbury vs Leiston?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Banbury win (38%). Probabilities: Banbury 38%, draw 27%, Leiston 35%.

How many goals are expected in Banbury vs Leiston?

The model expects 2.54 goals (Banbury 1.31 · Leiston 1.24), with a 55% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Banbury vs Leiston?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.