Football · England Southern Premier League Central · 31/08, 16:00
Prediction: Bury Town vs Leiston
Team pages: Bury Town · Leiston
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.66Total
Bury Town1.56
Leiston1.11
1X2
Bury Town
Draw
Leiston
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 50%
Both teams to score 53%
Most likely score
1-1 13%
Recent form · 10 last
Bury Town
7-2-1 (W-D-L)
Leiston
4-4-2 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Bury Town
3–2–0
Leiston
(5 last)
- Leiston1-3Bury Town
- Bury Town1-1Leiston
- Bury Town1-0Leiston
- Leiston0-1Bury Town
- Bury Town0-0Leiston
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Bury Town 1569 · Leiston 1576
| Bury Town | Draw | Leiston | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 47% | 28% | 26% |
| Market | 48% | 24% | 28% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.66 goals · Bet365 line 3 · -0.3
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 58%model estimate
Match keys
- H2H favours Bury Town: 3-2-0.
- Cards-heavy: 6.3 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Bury Town | Leiston | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.8 / 0.6 | 1.7 / 1.4 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1.7 / 0.7 | 1.3 / 0.3 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 67/0/33% | 71/14/14% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.3 / 4.7 | 2.4 / 5.1 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2 / 0 | 4.3 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Bury Town 3–2–0 Leiston
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 06/04/26 England Southern Premier League Central | Leiston | 1-3 | Bury Town |
| 03/02/26 England Southern Premier League Central | Bury Town | 1-1 | Leiston |
| 02/08/24 Club Friendly List | Bury Town | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Leiston |
| 06/04/15 England Isthmian Premier Division | Leiston | 0-1 | Bury Town |
| 26/12/14 England Isthmian Premier Division | Bury Town | 0-0 | Leiston |
Standings · England Southern Premier League Central
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Real Bedford | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 15 | 4 | 12 |
| 2 | Bury Town | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 1 | 12 |
| 3 | Alvechurch | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 2 | 9 |
| 4 | Bromsgrove | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 5 | 9 |
| 5 | Rushall Olympic | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 6 | 9 |
| 6 | Anstey Nomads | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 5 | 8 |
| 7 | Kettering | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 8 |
| 8 | Stourbridge | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 3 | 7 |
| 9 | Halesowen | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 6 |
| 10 | Leiston | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 6 | 5 |
| 11 | Racing Club Warwick | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 5 |
| 12 | Leighton Town | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 5 |
| 13 | Peterborough Sports | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 5 |
| 14 | Banbury | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 7 | 4 |
| 15 | Worcester City | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 4 |
| 16 | Redditch | 4 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 3 |
| 17 | Needham Market | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 7 | 3 |
| 18 | Hitchin | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 7 | 2 |
| 19 | Stratford Town | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 10 | 2 |
| 20 | Leamington | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 9 | 1 |
| 21 | Bishop's Stortford | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 7 | 1 |
| 22 | Stamford | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Bury Town
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/08 | Leighton Town England Southern Premier League Central |
1-2 | 3-2 | 6 | 2 | W |
| 22/08 | Leamington England Southern Premier League Central |
– | 3-0 | – | – | W |
| 15/08 | Stratford Town England Southern Premier League Central |
3-0 | 3-1 | 2 | 3 | W |
| 11/08 | Stamford England Southern Premier League Central |
– | 1-0 | – | – | W |
| 08/08 | Halesowen England Southern Premier League Central |
– | 1-0 | – | – | W |
| 25/04 | Kettering England Southern Premier League Central |
– | 0-1 | – | – | L |
| 18/04 | Barwell England Southern Premier League Central |
1-0 | 3-0 | 6 | 1 | W |
| 11/04 | Stamford England Southern Premier League Central |
– | 0-0 | – | – | D |
| 06/04 | Leiston England Southern Premier League Central |
– | 3-1 | – | – | W |
| 03/04 | Worcester City England Southern Premier League Central |
– | 1-1 | – | – | D |
Leiston
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/08 | Redditch England Southern Premier League Central |
3-0 | 3-1 | 5 | 8 | W |
| 22/08 | Stourbridge England Southern Premier League Central |
– | 2-2 | – | – | D |
| 15/08 | Rushall Olympic England Southern Premier League Central |
1-1 | 1-2 | 5 | 4 | L |
| 11/08 | Bishop's Stortford England Southern Premier League Central |
2-0 | 3-1 | 5 | 3 | W |
| 08/08 | Anstey Nomads England Southern Premier League Central |
0-1 | 1-1 | 5 | 5 | D |
| 25/04 | Alvechurch England Southern Premier League Central |
1-0 | 1-1 | 1 | 2 | D |
| 18/04 | Spalding United England Southern Premier League Central |
– | 2-2 | – | – | D |
| 14/04 | Real Bedford England Southern Premier League Central |
1-0 | 1-0 | 6 | 4 | W |
| 11/04 | Quorn England Southern Premier League Central |
1-0 | 2-1 | 9 | 5 | W |
| 06/04 | Bury Town England Southern Premier League Central |
– | 1-3 | – | – | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Bury Town vs Leiston?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Bury Town win (48%). Probabilities: Bury Town 48%, draw 26%, Leiston 27%.
How many goals are expected in Bury Town vs Leiston?
The model expects 2.66 goals (Bury Town 1.56 · Leiston 1.11), with a 58% chance of under 3 goals.
Will both teams score in Bury Town vs Leiston?
The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.