Football · England Southern Premier League Central · 08/08, 16:00

Prediction: Redditch vs Leighton Town

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.94Total

Redditch1.66

Leighton Town1.28

1X2

46% 26% 29%

Redditch Draw Leighton Town

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 56% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Redditch 4-4-2 (W-D-L)

LLDDWWDWDW

Leighton Town 7-3-0 (W-D-L)

WDWWWWWDDW

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Redditch 1533 · Leighton Town 1574

	Redditch	Draw	Leighton Town
Our model	45%	26%	28%
Market	46%	25%	29%

Estimated total (ours) 2.94 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 55%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Leighton Town (rating 1533 vs 1574).
Cards-heavy: 5.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Redditch	Leighton Town
Goals for / against (FT)	2.1 / 1.6	2.3 / 0.9
Goals for / against (HT)	1 / 0.3	0.6 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/33/17%	30/40/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	0.5 / 4	2.9 / 4.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	1.5 / 0	3.9 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.95

X3.60

23.10

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.77

2 (+0.25)2.02

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.85

Under 2.751.95

Diff.: 0.7 · xG: 3.45

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 17:49

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.95 → 1.95	Bet365 1.95
X	3.60 → 3.60	Bet365 3.60
2	3.10 → 3.10	Bet365 3.10

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.3%

Time*	1	X	2
17:12 +37’	1.95	3.60	3.10

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Standings · England Southern Premier League Central

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Alvechurch	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Anstey Nomads	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Banbury	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Bishop's Stortford	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Bromsgrove	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Bury Town	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Halesowen	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Hitchin	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Kettering	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Leamington	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Leighton Town	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Leiston	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Needham Market	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Peterborough Sports	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Racing Club Warwick	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Real Bedford	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Redditch	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Rushall Olympic	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Stamford	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Stourbridge	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Stratford Town	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Worcester City	0	0	0	0	0	0

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Redditch

LLDDWWDWDW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
27/07	Coventry United FC Club Friendly List	1-0	3-1	–	–	W
25/07	Loughborough Club Friendly List	2-0	2-2	–	–	D
14/07	Sporting Club Inkberrow Club Friendly List	1-1	4-2	–	–	W
11/07	Long Eaton Utd UK Friendlies	2-0	2-2	4	2	D
07/07	Evesham United Club Friendly List	0-1	2-1	–	–	W
25/04	Quorn England Southern Premier League Central	–	5-0	–	–	W
18/04	Banbury England Southern Premier League Central	–	0-0	–	–	D
14/04	Kettering England Southern Premier League Central	0-0	1-1	4	1	D
11/04	Real Bedford England Southern Premier League Central	–	1-4	–	–	L
06/04	Worcester City England Southern Premier League Central	–	1-3	–	–	L

Leighton Town

WDWWWWWDDW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
28/07	Biggleswade Town Club Friendly List	0-0	2-1	–	–	W
18/07	Wellingborough Town Club Friendly List	0-1	2-2	–	–	D
11/07	Stotfold Club Friendly List	0-1	1-1	–	–	D
24/03	Northwood England Southern League Div One	1-0	2-0	3	3	W
17/03	Barton Rovers England Southern League Div One	2-1	4-2	2	5	W
07/03	Biggleswade FC England Southern League Div One	0-0	1-0	9	6	W
24/01	Aylesbury United England Southern League Div One	0-1	2-1	8	7	W
13/12	AFC Dunstable England Southern League Div One	2-0	4-0	6	0	W
10/11	Biggleswade FC England Southern League Div One	1-1	1-1	2	3	D
28/10	Marlow England Southern League Div One	0-0	4-1	3	3	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Redditch vs Leighton Town?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Redditch win (46%). Probabilities: Redditch 46%, draw 26%, Leighton Town 29%.

How many goals are expected in Redditch vs Leighton Town?

The model expects 2.94 goals (Redditch 1.66 · Leighton Town 1.28), with a 51% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Redditch vs Leighton Town?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.