Football · England Southern Premier League Central · 15/08, 16:00
Prediction: Banbury vs Real Bedford
Team pages: Banbury · Real Bedford
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.25Total
Banbury1.45
Real Bedford1.8
1X2
Banbury
Draw
Real Bedford
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 59%
Both teams to score 58%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Banbury
5-4-1 (W-D-L)
Real Bedford
6-3-1 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Banbury
0–2
Real Bedford
(2 last)
- Real Bedford3-1Banbury
- Banbury1-4Real Bedford
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Banbury 1532 · Real Bedford 1579
| Banbury | Draw | Real Bedford | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 30% | 25% | 45% |
| Market | 30% | 25% | 45% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.25 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.5
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 66%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Real Bedford (rating 1532 vs 1579).
- H2H favours Real Bedford: 2-0-0.
- Cards-heavy: 6.8 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Banbury | Real Bedford | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.2 / 0.9 | 3.1 / 2.6 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.7 / 0.4 | 1.4 / 1.1 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 29/57/14% | 33/33/33% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.5 / 4.8 | 2.5 / 5 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3 / 0 | 3.8 / 0.2 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Banbury 0–0–2 Real Bedford
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 25/11/25 England Southern Premier League Central | Real Bedford | 3-1 | Banbury |
| 23/09/25 England Southern Premier League Central | Banbury | 1-4 HT 1-2 | Real Bedford |
Standings · England Southern Premier League Central
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Real Bedford | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 2 | 6 |
| 2 | Bromsgrove | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 6 |
| 3 | Bury Town | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 6 |
| 4 | Leiston | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 4 |
| 5 | Banbury | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 4 |
| 5 | Kettering | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 4 |
| 7 | Stourbridge | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 |
| 8 | Alvechurch | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 3 |
| 9 | Needham Market | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 3 |
| 10 | Rushall Olympic | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
| 11 | Anstey Nomads | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| 11 | Leighton Town | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| 13 | Redditch | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| 13 | Stratford Town | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| 15 | Racing Club Warwick | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 |
| 16 | Leamington | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 1 |
| 17 | Worcester City | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 1 |
| 18 | Bishop's Stortford | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 |
| 18 | Peterborough Sports | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 |
| 20 | Halesowen | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 21 | Hitchin | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
| 22 | Stamford | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 0 |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Banbury
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/08 | Racing Club Warwick England Southern Premier League Central |
1-1 | 2-1 | 8 | 1 | W |
| 08/08 | Bishop's Stortford England Southern Premier League Central |
– | 0-0 | – | – | D |
| 01/08 | Quorn UK Friendlies |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 0 | D |
| 24/07 | AFC Rushden & Diamonds UK Friendlies |
1-0 | 2-1 | 6 | 3 | W |
| 18/07 | Potters Bar Town Club Friendly List |
1-1 | 1-1 | – | – | D |
| 14/07 | Easington Sports Club Friendly List |
0-0 | 2-0 | – | – | W |
| 11/07 | Coventry United FC Club Friendly List |
2-0 | 3-2 | – | – | W |
| 25/04 | Needham Market England Southern Premier League Central |
– | 2-0 | – | – | W |
| 18/04 | Redditch England Southern Premier League Central |
– | 0-0 | – | – | D |
| 14/04 | Stamford England Southern Premier League Central |
0-1 | 0-4 | 2 | 8 | L |
Real Bedford
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/08 | Peterborough Sports England Southern Premier League Central |
2-0 | 2-0 | 4 | 0 | W |
| 08/08 | Leamington England Southern Premier League Central |
1-1 | 4-2 | 9 | 5 | W |
| 28/07 | St Albans UK Friendlies |
1-2 | 4-4 | 0 | 6 | D |
| 24/07 | Bedford Town Club Friendly List |
1-2 | 3-2 | – | – | W |
| 18/07 | Berkhamsted Club Friendly List |
4-1 | 4-2 | – | – | W |
| 14/07 | Boreham Wood UK Friendlies |
1-1 | 2-8 | – | – | L |
| 11/07 | Harborough Town UK Friendlies |
2-2 | 4-4 | 5 | 1 | D |
| 04/05 | Spalding United England Southern Premier League Central |
0-1 | 2-2 | 7 | 6 | D |
| 29/04 | Kettering England Southern Premier League Central |
1-0 | 3-1 | 5 | 6 | W |
| 25/04 | Bromsgrove England Southern Premier League Central |
– | 3-1 | – | – | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Banbury vs Real Bedford?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Real Bedford win (45%). Probabilities: Banbury 30%, draw 25%, Real Bedford 45%.
How many goals are expected in Banbury vs Real Bedford?
The model expects 3.25 goals (Banbury 1.45 · Real Bedford 1.8), with a 52% chance of over 2.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Banbury vs Real Bedford?
The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.