Football · England Southern Premier League Central · 08/08, 16:00

Prediction: Stourbridge vs Stamford

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.66Total

Stourbridge1.68

Stamford0.98

1X2

53% 25% 21%

Stourbridge Draw Stamford

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 50% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Stourbridge 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

LDDLWWWLDL

Stamford 3-4-3 (W-D-L)

WDWWDDDLLL

Head-to-head

Stourbridge 0–2–4 Stamford (6 last)

Stamford1-1Stourbridge
Stourbridge1-3Stamford
Stourbridge0-2Stamford
Stamford1-0Stourbridge
Stourbridge1-1Stamford
Stamford3-0Stourbridge

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Stourbridge 1468 · Stamford 1490

	Stourbridge	Draw	Stamford
Our model	53%	26%	21%
Market	54%	24%	22%

Estimated total (ours) 2.66 goals · Bet365 line 2.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 58%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Stamford: 4-2-0.
Cards-heavy: 7.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Stourbridge	Stamford
Goals for / against (FT)	1.4 / 1.6	1.1 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 1.4	0.5 / 1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/20/60%	33/17/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.5 / 3.5	2 / 3.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2 / 0.5	5.5 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.67

X3.75

24.10

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.90

2 (+0.75)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 2.752.00

Under 2.751.80

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 2.7

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 20:02

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.85 → 1.67▼	Bet365 1.67
X	3.60 → 3.75▲	Bet365 3.75
2	3.40 → 4.10▲	Bet365 4.10

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 11.1%

Time*	1	X	2
17:12 +37’	1.85	3.60	3.40
19:53 +10’	1.67▼	3.75▲	4.10▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Stourbridge 0–2–4 Stamford

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Date	Home	Score	Away
14/02/26 England Southern Premier League Central	Stamford	1-1	Stourbridge
01/11/25 England Southern Premier League Central	Stourbridge	1-3	Stamford
28/12/24 England Southern Premier League Central	Stourbridge	0-2 HT 0-1	Stamford
17/08/24 England Southern Premier League Central	Stamford	1-0	Stourbridge
03/02/24 England Southern Premier League Central	Stourbridge	1-1	Stamford
23/09/23 England Southern Premier League Central	Stamford	3-0 HT 2-0	Stourbridge

Standings · England Southern Premier League Central

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#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Alvechurch	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Anstey Nomads	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Banbury	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Bishop's Stortford	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Bromsgrove	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Bury Town	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Halesowen	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Hitchin	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Kettering	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Leamington	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Leighton Town	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Leiston	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Needham Market	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Peterborough Sports	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Racing Club Warwick	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Real Bedford	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Redditch	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Rushall Olympic	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Stamford	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Stourbridge	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Stratford Town	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Worcester City	0	0	0	0	0	0

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Stourbridge

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/08	Kidderminster Club Friendly List	0-3	0-5	–	–	L
28/07	Halesowen UK Friendlies	2-2	3-3	2	1	D
25/07	Malvern Town Club Friendly List	0-1	1-2	–	–	L
14/07	Stourport Swifts Club Friendly List	1-0	2-0	–	–	W
25/04	Royston Town England Southern Premier League Central	–	1-0	–	–	W
18/04	AFC Sudbury England Southern Premier League Central	–	4-0	–	–	W
15/04	Needham Market England Southern Premier League Central	0-1	0-1	5	4	L
11/04	Bishop's Stortford England Southern Premier League Central	–	1-1	–	–	D
06/04	Alvechurch England Southern Premier League Central	–	1-1	–	–	D
03/04	Spalding United England Southern Premier League Central	–	1-3	–	–	L

Stamford

WDWWDDDLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/08	Shepshed Dynamo Club Friendly List	0-2	0-2	–	–	L
25/07	Bourne Town Club Friendly List	0-2	0-5	–	–	L
21/07	Grantham Club Friendly List	–	0-3	–	–	L
18/07	AFC Rushden & Diamonds Club Friendly List	1-1	1-1	–	–	D
08/07	Blackstones Club Friendly List	0-1	2-2	–	–	D
25/04	Harborough Town England Southern Premier League Central	–	0-0	–	–	D
18/04	Royston Town England Southern Premier League Central	1-0	3-0	4	3	W
14/04	Banbury England Southern Premier League Central	1-0	4-0	3	8	W
11/04	Bury Town England Southern Premier League Central	–	0-0	–	–	D
06/04	Quorn England Southern Premier League Central	–	1-0	–	–	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Stourbridge vs Stamford?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Stourbridge win (53%). Probabilities: Stourbridge 53%, draw 25%, Stamford 21%.

How many goals are expected in Stourbridge vs Stamford?

The model expects 2.66 goals (Stourbridge 1.68 · Stamford 0.98), with a 55% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Stourbridge vs Stamford?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.