Football · England Southern Premier League Central · 22/08, 16:00
Prediction: Stourbridge vs Leiston
Team pages: Stourbridge · Leiston
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.62Total
Stourbridge1.5
Leiston1.12
1X2
Stourbridge
Draw
Leiston
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 51%
Both teams to score 53%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Stourbridge
5-2-3 (W-D-L)
Leiston
5-4-1 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Stourbridge
3–2–1
Leiston
(6 last)
- Leiston0-0Stourbridge
- Stourbridge1-1Leiston
- Stourbridge2-0Leiston
- Leiston0-3Stourbridge
- Leiston0-1Stourbridge
- Stourbridge1-3Leiston
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Stourbridge 1522 · Leiston 1544
| Stourbridge | Draw | Leiston | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 45% | 28% | 27% |
| Market | 46% | 26% | 28% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.62 goals · Bet365 line 2.75
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 53%model estimate
Match keys
- H2H favours Stourbridge: 3-2-1.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Stourbridge | Leiston | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.6 / 1.3 | 2 / 1.1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.7 / 1.2 | 1.3 / 0.3 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 33/17/50% | 78/11/11% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 3 / 4.7 | 1.8 / 3.7 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 1.7 / 0.3 | 2.7 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Stourbridge 3–2–1 Leiston
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 17/01/26 England Southern Premier League Central | Leiston | 0-0 | Stourbridge |
| 11/10/25 England Southern Premier League Central | Stourbridge | 1-1 | Leiston |
| 12/04/25 England Southern Premier League Central | Stourbridge | 2-0 | Leiston |
| 14/12/24 England Southern Premier League Central | Leiston | 0-3 HT 0-1 | Stourbridge |
| 09/03/24 England Southern Premier League Central | Leiston | 0-1 | Stourbridge |
| 17/02/24 England Southern Premier League Central | Stourbridge | 1-3 | Leiston |
Standings · England Southern Premier League Central
Swipe the table sideways →
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Real Bedford | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 3 | 9 |
| 2 | Bury Town | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 9 |
| 3 | Kettering | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 7 |
| 4 | Alvechurch | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 6 |
| 5 | Stourbridge | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 6 |
| 6 | Bromsgrove | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 4 | 6 |
| 7 | Rushall Olympic | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 6 |
| 8 | Anstey Nomads | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 5 |
| 8 | Leighton Town | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 5 |
| 10 | Leiston | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 4 |
| 11 | Racing Club Warwick | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 4 |
| 12 | Banbury | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 4 |
| 13 | Redditch | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 |
| 14 | Halesowen | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
| 15 | Needham Market | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 3 |
| 16 | Stratford Town | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 2 |
| 17 | Hitchin | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 1 |
| 17 | Leamington | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 1 |
| 17 | Worcester City | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 1 |
| 20 | Peterborough Sports | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 1 |
| 21 | Bishop's Stortford | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 1 |
| 22 | Stamford | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Stourbridge
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/08 | Peterborough Sports England Southern Premier League Central |
– | 2-1 | – | – | W |
| 08/08 | Stamford England Southern Premier League Central |
1-0 | 2-0 | 7 | 1 | W |
| 01/08 | Kidderminster Club Friendly List |
0-3 | 0-5 | – | – | L |
| 28/07 | Halesowen UK Friendlies |
2-2 | 3-3 | 2 | 1 | D |
| 25/07 | Malvern Town Club Friendly List |
0-1 | 1-2 | – | – | L |
| 14/07 | Stourport Swifts Club Friendly List |
1-0 | 2-0 | – | – | W |
| 25/04 | Royston Town England Southern Premier League Central |
– | 1-0 | – | – | W |
| 18/04 | AFC Sudbury England Southern Premier League Central |
– | 4-0 | – | – | W |
| 15/04 | Needham Market England Southern Premier League Central |
0-1 | 0-1 | 5 | 4 | L |
| 11/04 | Bishop's Stortford England Southern Premier League Central |
– | 1-1 | – | – | D |
Leiston
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/08 | Rushall Olympic England Southern Premier League Central |
1-1 | 1-2 | 5 | 4 | L |
| 11/08 | Bishop's Stortford England Southern Premier League Central |
2-0 | 3-1 | 5 | 3 | W |
| 08/08 | Anstey Nomads England Southern Premier League Central |
0-1 | 1-1 | 5 | 5 | D |
| 01/08 | Lowestoft Town Club Friendly List |
1-0 | 1-1 | – | – | D |
| 28/07 | Gorleston UK Friendlies |
1-0 | 3-1 | 3 | 1 | W |
| 24/07 | Mulbarton Wanderers Club Friendly List |
1-0 | 2-0 | – | – | W |
| 14/07 | Dereham Town Club Friendly List |
2-0 | 2-0 | – | – | W |
| 10/07 | Aveley UK Friendlies |
3-1 | 4-2 | 3 | 1 | W |
| 25/04 | Alvechurch England Southern Premier League Central |
1-0 | 1-1 | 1 | 2 | D |
| 18/04 | Spalding United England Southern Premier League Central |
– | 2-2 | – | – | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Stourbridge vs Leiston?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Stourbridge win (46%). Probabilities: Stourbridge 46%, draw 27%, Leiston 28%.
How many goals are expected in Stourbridge vs Leiston?
The model expects 2.62 goals (Stourbridge 1.5 · Leiston 1.12), with a 53% chance of under 2.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Stourbridge vs Leiston?
The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.