Prediction: Motagua vs Estrella Roja
Team pages: Motagua · Estrella Roja
| Motagua | Draw | Estrella Roja | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 68% | 22% | 9% |
| Market | 71% | 17% | 12% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Motagua (rating 1550 vs 1489).
- High corners: 11.1 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 8.8 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Motagua | Estrella Roja | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.6 / 0.8 | 1.1 / 0.9 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.6 / 0.1 | 0.5 / 1 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 50/50/0% | 0/50/50% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 3.4 / 7.1 | 1.5 / 4 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.3 / 0 | 4.5 / 0.5 |
Standings · Honduras Liga Nacional
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| # | Team | P | W | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Motagua | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 |
| 1 | Real Espana | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 |
| 3 | Genesis de Comayagua | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 |
| 3 | CD Olimpia | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 |
| 5 | CD Marathon | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 5 | Olancho FC | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 7 | CA Independiente Siguatepeque | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 7 | Estrella Roja | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 9 | Atletico Choloma | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
| 9 | Lobos UPNFM | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
| 11 | Juticalpa | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 |
| 11 | CD Platense | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Motagua
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/08 | Juticalpa Honduras Liga Nacional |
0-0 | 3-0 | 7 | 2 | W |
| 29/07 | Verdes FC CONCACAF Central American Cup |
1-0 | 5-0 | 10 | 2 | W |
| 24/07 | CD Olimpia Honduras Super Cup |
0-0 | 0-1 | 12 | 5 | L |
| 25/05 | CD Marathon Honduras Liga Nacional |
0-0 | 0-0 | 13 | 6 | D |
| 22/05 | CD Marathon Honduras Liga Nacional |
0-0 | 1-1 | 2 | 4 | D |
| 19/05 | Genesis de Comayagua Honduras Liga Nacional |
1-1 | 2-1 | 6 | 5 | W |
| 13/05 | Olancho FC Honduras Liga Nacional |
1-0 | 2-0 | 4 | 4 | W |
| 10/05 | Olancho FC Honduras Liga Nacional |
1-0 | 1-2 | 6 | 4 | L |
| 04/05 | Genesis de Comayagua Honduras Liga Nacional |
1-0 | 1-1 | 4 | 7 | D |
| 01/05 | Lobos UPNFM Honduras Liga Nacional |
1-0 | 1-2 | – | – | L |
Estrella Roja
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/08 | Olancho FC Honduras Liga Nacional |
0-1 | 0-1 | 3 | 4 | L |
| 10/05 | FC Brasilia Rio Lindo Honduras Liga de Ascenso |
– | 2-2 | – | – | D |
| 02/05 | FC Brasilia Rio Lindo Honduras Liga de Ascenso |
– | 1-1 | – | – | D |
| 26/04 | Pumas FC Honduras Liga de Ascenso |
– | 0-0 | – | – | D |
| 20/04 | Pumas FC Honduras Liga de Ascenso |
1-1 | 1-1 | 5 | 6 | D |
| 12/04 | Affi Academia Honduras Liga de Ascenso |
– | 4-0 | – | – | W |
| 05/04 | Affi Academia Honduras Liga de Ascenso |
– | 0-1 | – | – | L |
| 28/03 | CD San Rafael Honduras Liga de Ascenso |
– | 0-0 | – | – | D |
| 26/03 | Gimnastico de Tegucigalpa Honduras Liga de Ascenso |
– | 1-1 | – | – | D |
| 21/03 | Arsenal FC de Roatan Honduras Liga de Ascenso |
– | 2-2 | – | – | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Motagua vs Estrella Roja?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Motagua win (69%). Probabilities: Motagua 69%, draw 20%, Estrella Roja 11%.
How many goals are expected in Motagua vs Estrella Roja?
The model expects 2.45 goals (Motagua 1.88 · Estrella Roja 0.57), with a 61% chance of under 3 goals.
Will both teams score in Motagua vs Estrella Roja?
The model gives a 53% chance that not both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.