Football · Honduras Liga Nacional · 15/08, 23:00

Prediction: Genesis de Comayagua vs CD Platense

Team pages: Genesis de Comayagua · CD Platense

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.41Total

Genesis de Comayagua1.34

CD Platense1.07

1X2

42% 29% 29%

Genesis de Comayagua Draw CD Platense

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 57% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Genesis de Comayagua 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

LWWDDWDLWL

CD Platense 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

LWLDWLWLLD

Head-to-head

Genesis de Comayagua 1–3–0 CD Platense (4 last)

CD Platense0-1Genesis de Comayagua
Genesis de Comayagua2-2CD Platense
CD Platense1-1Genesis de Comayagua
Genesis de Comayagua1-1CD Platense

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Genesis de Comayagua 1523 · CD Platense 1471

	Genesis de Comayagua	Draw	CD Platense
Our model	41%	30%	29%
Market	42%	28%	30%

Estimated total (ours) 2.41 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 54%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Genesis de Comayagua (rating 1523 vs 1471).
Cards-heavy: 7.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Genesis de Comayagua	CD Platense
Goals for / against (FT)	1.3 / 1	1 / 1.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.7	0.4 / 0.9
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/40/30%	10/50/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.6 / 2.8	2.7 / 5.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.7 / 0.3	4.1 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

12.10

X3.20

23.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.90

2 (+0.25)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.77

Under 2.252.02

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 2.4

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 17:34

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.10 → 1.90▼	Bet365 1.90
X	3.20 → 3.30▲	Bet365 3.30
2	3.00 → 3.50▲	Pinn 3.65 ★

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 11.5% Pinnacle margin 12.7%

Time*	1	X	2
08:00 +12’	2.10	3.20	3.00
17:33 +1’	1.90▼	3.30▲	3.50▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
17:20 +15’	1.90	3.06	3.65

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Genesis de Comayagua 1–3–0 CD Platense

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Date	Home	Score	Away
08/04/26 Honduras Liga Nacional	CD Platense	0-1 HT 0-1	Genesis de Comayagua
15/02/26 Honduras Liga Nacional	Genesis de Comayagua	2-2 HT 2-1	CD Platense
07/12/25 Honduras Liga Nacional	CD Platense	1-1 HT 0-0	Genesis de Comayagua
20/09/25 Honduras Liga Nacional	Genesis de Comayagua	1-1 HT 0-0	CD Platense

Standings · Honduras Liga Nacional

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Real Espana	2	2	0	0	5	0	6
2	CD Olimpia	2	2	0	0	5	1	6
3	CD Marathon	2	1	1	0	2	1	4
3	Olancho FC	2	1	1	0	2	1	4
5	Motagua	2	1	0	1	3	2	3
6	Estrella Roja	2	1	0	1	2	1	3
7	CA Independiente Siguatepeque	2	1	0	1	2	2	3
7	Genesis de Comayagua	2	1	0	1	2	2	3
9	Lobos UPNFM	2	0	1	1	1	3	1
10	CD Platense	2	0	1	1	1	4	1
11	Atletico Choloma	2	0	0	2	1	4	0
12	Juticalpa	2	0	0	2	1	6	0

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Genesis de Comayagua	CD Platense
Real Espana	0-2 L	0-3 L
Atletico Choloma	2-0 W	0-1 L
Olancho FC	1-1 D	1-0 W
Lobos UPNFM	1-0 W	4-1 W
CD Marathon	0-1 L	1-1 D
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 2 L	2 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: CD Platense (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Genesis de Comayagua

LWWDDWDLWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
09/08	Real Espana Honduras Liga Nacional	0-1	0-2	1	4	L
01/08	Atletico Choloma Honduras Liga Nacional	2-0	2-0	2	2	W
19/05	Motagua Honduras Liga Nacional	1-1	1-2	5	5	L
15/05	Olancho FC Honduras Liga Nacional	1-1	1-1	3	4	D
07/05	Olancho FC Honduras Liga Nacional	2-1	3-1	1	4	W
04/05	Motagua Honduras Liga Nacional	0-1	1-1	4	7	D
01/05	Olancho FC Honduras Liga Nacional	1-1	2-2	4	3	D
27/04	CD Victoria Honduras Liga Nacional	0-0	2-0	1	0	W
24/04	Lobos UPNFM Honduras Liga Nacional	1-0	1-0	2	5	W
18/04	CD Marathon Honduras Liga Nacional	0-1	0-1	5	6	L

CD Platense

LWLDWLWLLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/08	CD Marathon Honduras Liga Nacional	1-1	1-1	5	4	D
01/08	Real Espana Honduras Liga Nacional	0-2	0-3	4	0	L
01/05	CD Olimpia Honduras Liga Nacional	0-1	0-4	5	2	L
26/04	Olancho FC Honduras Liga Nacional	0-0	1-0	5	4	W
23/04	Real Espana Honduras Liga Nacional	0-2	0-2	8	2	L
19/04	Lobos UPNFM Honduras Liga Nacional	1-1	4-1	8	3	W
16/04	Juticalpa Honduras Liga Nacional	1-0	1-1	5	6	D
08/04	Genesis de Comayagua Honduras Liga Nacional	0-1	0-1	9	5	L
05/04	CD Marathon Honduras Liga Nacional	1-1	3-1	3	10	W
02/04	Atletico Choloma Honduras Liga Nacional	0-0	0-1	3	8	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Genesis de Comayagua vs CD Platense?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Genesis de Comayagua win (42%). Probabilities: Genesis de Comayagua 42%, draw 29%, CD Platense 29%.

How many goals are expected in Genesis de Comayagua vs CD Platense?

The model expects 2.41 goals (Genesis de Comayagua 1.34 · CD Platense 1.07), with a 52% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Genesis de Comayagua vs CD Platense?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.