Prediction: Lobos UPNFM vs Estrella Roja
Team pages: Lobos UPNFM · Estrella Roja
| Lobos UPNFM | Draw | Estrella Roja | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 39% | 32% | 29% |
| Market | 41% | 28% | 31% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Estrella Roja (rating 1462 vs 1512).
- Cards-heavy: 7.7 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Lobos UPNFM | Estrella Roja | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 0.9 / 1.5 | 1.1 / 0.7 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.4 / 0.7 | 0.3 / 0.7 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/40/40% | 0/67/33% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1 / 4 | 1.3 / 3 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.3 / 0.8 | 4.3 / 0.3 |
Standings · Honduras Liga Nacional
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Real Espana | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 6 |
| 2 | CD Olimpia | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 6 |
| 3 | CD Marathon | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 4 |
| 3 | Olancho FC | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 4 |
| 5 | Motagua | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 3 |
| 6 | Estrella Roja | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| 7 | CA Independiente Siguatepeque | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 |
| 7 | Genesis de Comayagua | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 |
| 9 | Lobos UPNFM | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 |
| 10 | CD Platense | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 |
| 11 | Atletico Choloma | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| 12 | Juticalpa | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
Common opponents 2 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Lobos UPNFM | Estrella Roja |
|---|---|---|
| Olancho FC | 1-1 D | 0-1 L |
| Motagua | 2-1 W | 2-0 W |
| Record vs common | 1 W 1 D 0 L | 1 W 0 D 1 L |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Lobos UPNFM
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/08 | Olancho FC Honduras Liga Nacional |
0-0 | 1-1 | 8 | 4 | D |
| 03/08 | CD Olimpia Honduras Liga Nacional |
0-2 | 0-2 | 1 | 2 | L |
| 01/05 | Motagua Honduras Liga Nacional |
0-1 | 2-1 | – | – | W |
| 27/04 | Juticalpa Honduras Liga Nacional |
0-0 | 0-1 | – | – | L |
| 24/04 | Genesis de Comayagua Honduras Liga Nacional |
0-1 | 0-1 | 2 | 5 | L |
| 19/04 | CD Platense Honduras Liga Nacional |
1-1 | 1-4 | 4 | 3 | L |
| 13/04 | Real Espana Honduras Liga Nacional |
1-0 | 1-1 | – | – | D |
| 06/04 | CD Victoria Honduras Liga Nacional |
0-1 | 2-3 | 6 | 5 | L |
| 03/04 | CD Olimpia Honduras Liga Nacional |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 6 | D |
| 24/03 | Olancho FC Honduras Liga Nacional |
2-1 | 2-1 | – | – | W |
Estrella Roja
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/08 | Motagua Honduras Liga Nacional |
0-0 | 2-0 | 1 | 4 | W |
| 03/08 | Olancho FC Honduras Liga Nacional |
0-1 | 0-1 | 3 | 4 | L |
| 10/05 | FC Brasilia Rio Lindo Honduras Liga de Ascenso |
– | 2-2 | – | – | D |
| 02/05 | FC Brasilia Rio Lindo Honduras Liga de Ascenso |
– | 1-1 | – | – | D |
| 26/04 | Pumas FC Honduras Liga de Ascenso |
– | 0-0 | – | – | D |
| 20/04 | Pumas FC Honduras Liga de Ascenso |
1-1 | 1-1 | 5 | 6 | D |
| 12/04 | Affi Academia Honduras Liga de Ascenso |
– | 4-0 | – | – | W |
| 05/04 | Affi Academia Honduras Liga de Ascenso |
– | 0-1 | – | – | L |
| 28/03 | CD San Rafael Honduras Liga de Ascenso |
– | 0-0 | – | – | D |
| 26/03 | Gimnastico de Tegucigalpa Honduras Liga de Ascenso |
– | 1-1 | – | – | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Lobos UPNFM vs Estrella Roja?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Lobos UPNFM win (40%). Probabilities: Lobos UPNFM 40%, draw 30%, Estrella Roja 30%.
How many goals are expected in Lobos UPNFM vs Estrella Roja?
The model expects 2.14 goals (Lobos UPNFM 1.17 · Estrella Roja 0.96), with a 53% chance of under 2.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Lobos UPNFM vs Estrella Roja?
The model gives a 51% chance that not both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.