Football · Honduras Liga Nacional · 17/08, 01:15

Prediction: CD Olimpia vs Motagua

Team pages: CD Olimpia · Motagua

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.47Total

CD Olimpia1.5

Motagua0.97

1X2

49% 28% 24%

CD Olimpia Draw Motagua

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

CD Olimpia 8-0-2 (W-D-L)

WWLWLWWWWW

Motagua 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

WWDDLWWWLD

Head-to-head

CD Olimpia 3–2–1 Motagua (6 last)

CD Olimpia1-0Motagua
Motagua0-1CD Olimpia
CD Olimpia0-1Motagua
Motagua1-1CD Olimpia
CD Olimpia2-0Motagua
CD Olimpia2-2Motagua

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · CD Olimpia 1595 · Motagua 1537

	CD Olimpia	Draw	Motagua
Our model	48%	28%	23%
Market	49%	27%	24%

Estimated total (ours) 2.47 goals · Bet365 line 2.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 60%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours CD Olimpia (rating 1595 vs 1537).
H2H favours CD Olimpia: 3-2-1.
High corners: 13.8 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	CD Olimpia	Motagua
Goals for / against (FT)	2 / 0.8	1.5 / 0.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 0.2	0.4 / 0.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	60/30/10%	20/80/0%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.2 / 5.9	4 / 7.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.2 / 0.2	3.8 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.80

X3.30

23.70

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.88

2 (+0.5)1.93

Line ⓘ

Over 2.52.02

Under 2.51.77

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 2.45

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 11:37

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.00 → 1.80▼	Bet365 1.80
X	3.25 → 3.30▲	Bet365 3.30
2	3.20 → 3.70▲	Bet365 3.70

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 12.9%

Time*	1	X	2
08:43 +4’	2.00	3.25	3.20
11:35 +2’	1.80▼	3.30▲	3.70▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · CD Olimpia 3–2–1 Motagua

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Date	Home	Score	Away
24/07/26 Honduras Super Cup	CD Olimpia	1-0 HT 0-0	Motagua
13/04/26 Honduras Liga Nacional	Motagua	0-1 HT 0-1	CD Olimpia
23/02/26 Honduras Liga Nacional	CD Olimpia	0-1 HT 0-0	Motagua
21/12/25 Honduras Liga Nacional	Motagua	1-1 HT 1-0	CD Olimpia
18/12/25 Honduras Liga Nacional	CD Olimpia	2-0 HT 0-0	Motagua
17/10/25 Honduras Liga Nacional	CD Olimpia	2-2 HT 1-1	Motagua

Standings · Honduras Liga Nacional

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Real Espana	2	2	0	0	5	0	6
2	CD Olimpia	2	2	0	0	5	1	6
3	CD Marathon	2	1	1	0	2	1	4
3	Olancho FC	2	1	1	0	2	1	4
5	Motagua	2	1	0	1	3	2	3
6	Estrella Roja	2	1	0	1	2	1	3
7	CA Independiente Siguatepeque	2	1	0	1	2	2	3
7	Genesis de Comayagua	2	1	0	1	2	2	3
9	Lobos UPNFM	2	0	1	1	1	3	1
10	CD Platense	2	0	1	1	1	4	1
11	Atletico Choloma	2	0	0	2	1	4	0
12	Juticalpa	2	0	0	2	1	6	0

Common opponents 2 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	CD Olimpia	Motagua
Juticalpa	3-1 W	3-0 W
CD Marathon	0-1 L	0-0 D
Record vs common	1 W 0 D 1 L	1 W 1 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Motagua (2 of 2 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

CD Olimpia

WWLWLWWWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
09/08	Juticalpa Honduras Liga Nacional	2-0	3-1	3	5	W
06/08	UMECIT CONCACAF Central American Cup	1-1	2-1	7	4	W
03/08	Lobos UPNFM Honduras Liga Nacional	2-0	2-0	3	2	W
29/07	Deportivo Mixco CONCACAF Central American Cup	1-0	2-0	5	3	W
24/07	Motagua Honduras Super Cup	0-0	1-0	2	5	W
16/05	CD Marathon Honduras Liga Nacional	0-1	0-1	11	2	L
13/05	Real Espana Honduras Liga Nacional	1-0	3-2	7	4	W
10/05	Real Espana Honduras Liga Nacional	1-0	1-3	8	2	L
07/05	CD Marathon Honduras Liga Nacional	0-0	2-0	8	5	W
01/05	CD Platense Honduras Liga Nacional	1-0	4-0	5	2	W

Motagua

WWDDLWWWLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
13/08	Cartagines CONCACAF Central American Cup	1-1	1-1	10	4	D
10/08	Estrella Roja Honduras Liga Nacional	0-0	0-2	9	4	L
07/08	CD FAS CONCACAF Central American Cup	0-0	1-0	6	2	W
02/08	Juticalpa Honduras Liga Nacional	0-0	3-0	7	2	W
29/07	Verdes FC CONCACAF Central American Cup	1-0	5-0	10	2	W
24/07	CD Olimpia Honduras Super Cup	0-0	0-1	12	5	L
25/05	CD Marathon Honduras Liga Nacional	0-0	0-0	13	6	D
22/05	CD Marathon Honduras Liga Nacional	0-0	1-1	2	4	D
19/05	Genesis de Comayagua Honduras Liga Nacional	1-1	2-1	6	5	W
13/05	Olancho FC Honduras Liga Nacional	1-0	2-0	4	4	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in CD Olimpia vs Motagua?

According to our model, the most likely result is a CD Olimpia win (49%). Probabilities: CD Olimpia 49%, draw 28%, Motagua 24%.

How many goals are expected in CD Olimpia vs Motagua?

The model expects 2.47 goals (CD Olimpia 1.5 · Motagua 0.97), with a 54% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in CD Olimpia vs Motagua?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.