Football · Honduras Liga Nacional · 16/08, 23:00

Prediction: Atletico Choloma vs CD Marathon

Team pages: Atletico Choloma · CD Marathon

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.43Total

Atletico Choloma0.81

CD Marathon1.62

1X2

18% 26% 56%

Atletico Choloma Draw CD Marathon

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 50%

Most likely score

0-1

Recent form · 10 last

Atletico Choloma 4-0-6 (W-D-L)

LWLWWLLWLL

CD Marathon 4-5-1 (W-D-L)

WLWDDDDWDW

Head-to-head

Atletico Choloma 1–2–2 CD Marathon (5 last)

CD Marathon0-1Atletico Choloma
Atletico Choloma0-0CD Marathon
Atletico Choloma0-4CD Marathon
CD Marathon1-0Atletico Choloma
CD Marathon1-1Atletico Choloma

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Atletico Choloma 1461 · CD Marathon 1559

	Atletico Choloma	Draw	CD Marathon
Our model	18%	27%	55%
Market	19%	25%	57%

Estimated total (ours) 2.43 goals · Bet365 line 2.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 51%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours CD Marathon (rating 1461 vs 1559).
H2H favours CD Marathon: 2-2-1.
Cards-heavy: 9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Atletico Choloma	CD Marathon
Goals for / against (FT)	1.5 / 2.1	0.9 / 0.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 1.1	0.6 / 0.1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/40/50%	50/50/0%
Corners (HT / FT)	2 / 4.6	2.3 / 4.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.9 / 0.8	4.1 / 0.5

Odds Bet365

14.75

X3.60

21.57

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.75)2.00

2 (-0.75)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.80

Under 2.52.00

Diff.: 0 · xG: 2.5

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 21:11

	Bet365	Best now
1	4.75 → 4.20▼	Bet365 4.20
X	3.60 → 3.50▼	Bet365 3.50
2	1.57 → 1.70▲	Bet365 1.70

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 11.2%

Time*	1	X	2
08:41 +2’	4.75	3.60	1.57
21:05 +6’	4.20▼	3.50▼	1.70▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Atletico Choloma 1–2–2 CD Marathon

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Date	Home	Score	Away
01/05/26 Honduras Liga Nacional	CD Marathon	0-1 HT 0-0	Atletico Choloma
11/03/26 Honduras Liga Nacional	Atletico Choloma	0-0 HT 0-0	CD Marathon
28/11/25 Honduras Liga Nacional	Atletico Choloma	0-4 HT 0-4	CD Marathon
14/09/25 Honduras Liga Nacional	CD Marathon	1-0 HT 0-0	Atletico Choloma
12/07/25 America Friendlies	CD Marathon	1-1 HT 1-1	Atletico Choloma

Standings · Honduras Liga Nacional

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Real Espana	2	2	0	0	5	0	6
2	CD Olimpia	2	2	0	0	5	1	6
3	CD Marathon	2	1	1	0	2	1	4
3	Olancho FC	2	1	1	0	2	1	4
5	Motagua	2	1	0	1	3	2	3
6	Estrella Roja	2	1	0	1	2	1	3
7	CA Independiente Siguatepeque	2	1	0	1	2	2	3
7	Genesis de Comayagua	2	1	0	1	2	2	3
9	Lobos UPNFM	2	0	1	1	1	3	1
10	CD Platense	2	0	1	1	1	4	1
11	Atletico Choloma	2	0	0	2	1	4	0
12	Juticalpa	2	0	0	2	1	6	0

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Atletico Choloma	CD Marathon
CA Independiente Siguatepeque	1-2 L	1-0 W
Motagua	1-5 L	0-0 D
CD Olimpia	1-3 L	1-0 W
Real Espana	3-2 W	1-1 D
CD Platense	1-0 W	1-1 D
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 3 L	2 W 3 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: CD Marathon (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Atletico Choloma

LWLWWLLWLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/08	CA Independiente Siguatepeque Honduras Liga Nacional	1-2	1-2	2	7	L
01/08	Genesis de Comayagua Honduras Liga Nacional	0-2	0-2	5	2	L
01/05	CD Marathon Honduras Liga Nacional	0-0	1-0	3	3	W
27/04	Motagua Honduras Liga Nacional	1-3	1-5	4	4	L
19/04	CD Olimpia Honduras Liga Nacional	0-0	1-3	–	–	L
14/04	CD Victoria Honduras Liga Nacional	3-0	5-2	4	4	W
10/04	Real Espana Honduras Liga Nacional	0-1	3-2	0	10	W
05/04	Olancho FC Honduras Liga Nacional	1-2	1-3	7	4	L
02/04	CD Platense Honduras Liga Nacional	0-0	1-0	5	8	W
25/03	Genesis de Comayagua Honduras Liga Nacional	1-1	1-2	11	9	L

CD Marathon

WLWDDDDWDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
14/08	Antigua GFC CONCACAF Central American Cup	1-0	3-0	5	5	W
08/08	CD Platense Honduras Liga Nacional	1-1	1-1	12	4	D
04/08	CA Independiente Siguatepeque Honduras Liga Nacional	1-0	1-0	5	3	W
31/07	Herediano CONCACAF Central American Cup	0-0	0-0	0	6	D
25/05	Motagua Honduras Liga Nacional	0-0	0-0	3	6	D
22/05	Motagua Honduras Liga Nacional	0-0	1-1	6	4	D
19/05	Real Espana Honduras Liga Nacional	1-0	1-1	3	2	D
16/05	CD Olimpia Honduras Liga Nacional	1-0	1-0	5	2	W
07/05	CD Olimpia Honduras Liga Nacional	0-0	0-2	3	5	L
03/05	Real Espana Honduras Liga Nacional	1-0	1-0	3	9	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Atletico Choloma vs CD Marathon?

According to our model, the most likely result is an CD Marathon win (56%). Probabilities: Atletico Choloma 18%, draw 26%, CD Marathon 56%.

How many goals are expected in Atletico Choloma vs CD Marathon?

The model expects 2.43 goals (Atletico Choloma 0.81 · CD Marathon 1.62), with a 51% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Atletico Choloma vs CD Marathon?

The model gives a 50% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 0-1.