Football · Honduras Liga Nacional · 22/08, 03:00

Prediction: Motagua vs Lobos UPNFM

Team pages: Motagua · Lobos UPNFM

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.67Total

Motagua1.74

Lobos UPNFM0.93

1X2

56% 24% 20%

Motagua Draw Lobos UPNFM

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Motagua 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

LDLWWDDWLL

Lobos UPNFM 1-4-5 (W-D-L)

DLDLLLWLDD

Head-to-head

Motagua 2–2–2 Lobos UPNFM (6 last)

Lobos UPNFM2-1Motagua
Motagua2-0Lobos UPNFM
Lobos UPNFM0-0Motagua
Motagua3-3Lobos UPNFM
Lobos UPNFM2-1Motagua
Motagua5-0Lobos UPNFM

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Motagua 1535 · Lobos UPNFM 1448

	Motagua	Draw	Lobos UPNFM
Our model	55%	26%	19%
Market	57%	22%	21%

Estimated total (ours) 2.67 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 53%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Motagua (rating 1535 vs 1448).
Cards-heavy: 8.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Motagua	Lobos UPNFM
Goals for / against (FT)	1.2 / 1.2	0.9 / 1.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.2	0.2 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/60/0%	10/50/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.8 / 6.2	1 / 3.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.8 / 0.1	3.3 / 0.7

Odds Bet365

11.57

X4.10

24.33

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1)1.98

2 (+1)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.85

Under 2.51.95

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 2.45

Market movement

Match winner · 5 moves · last 00:26

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.48 → 1.57▲	Bet365 1.57
X	4.20 → 4.10▼	Bet365 4.10
2	5.00 → 4.33▼	Pinn 5.31 ★

See the full journey (5)

Bet365 margin 11.1% Pinnacle margin 11.3%

Time*	1	X	2
23:24 +2’	1.48	4.20	5.00
04:29 +15’	1.53▲	4.10▼	4.50▼
10:50 +4’	1.42▼	4.50▲	5.50▲
19:00 +6’	1.53▲	4.20▼	4.50▼
00:10 +16’	1.57▲	4.10▼	4.33▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
18:52 +15’	1.52	3.64	5.16
00:19 +7’	1.51▼	3.65▲	5.18▲
02:01	1.53▲	3.71▲	5.31▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Motagua 2–2–2 Lobos UPNFM

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Date	Home	Score	Away
01/05/26 Honduras Liga Nacional	Lobos UPNFM	2-1 HT 0-1	Motagua
12/03/26 Honduras Liga Nacional	Motagua	2-0 HT 1-0	Lobos UPNFM
28/11/25 Honduras Liga Nacional	Lobos UPNFM	0-0 HT 0-0	Motagua
14/09/25 Honduras Liga Nacional	Motagua	3-3 HT 1-2	Lobos UPNFM
08/04/25 Honduras Liga Nacional	Lobos UPNFM	2-1 HT 2-1	Motagua
07/02/25 Honduras Liga Nacional	Motagua	5-0 HT 3-0	Lobos UPNFM

Standings · Honduras Liga Nacional

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	CD Olimpia	3	3	0	0	8	2	9
2	Real Espana	3	2	1	0	6	1	7
3	CD Marathon	3	2	1	0	3	1	7
3	Olancho FC	3	2	1	0	3	1	7
5	Genesis de Comayagua	3	2	0	1	5	2	6
6	Motagua	4	2	0	2	8	6	6
7	Estrella Roja	3	1	1	1	4	3	4
8	CA Independiente Siguatepeque	3	1	1	1	3	3	4
9	Lobos UPNFM	4	0	2	2	4	9	2
10	CD Platense	3	0	1	2	1	7	1
11	Atletico Choloma	3	0	0	3	1	5	0
12	Juticalpa	3	0	0	3	1	7	0

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Motagua	Lobos UPNFM
CD Olimpia	1-3 L	0-2 L
Estrella Roja	0-2 L	2-2 D
Juticalpa	3-0 W	0-1 L
Genesis de Comayagua	2-1 W	0-1 L
Olancho FC	2-0 W	1-1 D
Record vs common	3 W 0 D 2 L	0 W 2 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Motagua (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Motagua

LDLWWDDWLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/08	CD Olimpia Honduras Liga Nacional	1-1	1-3	5	8	L
10/08	Estrella Roja Honduras Liga Nacional	0-0	0-2	9	4	L
02/08	Juticalpa Honduras Liga Nacional	0-0	3-0	7	2	W
25/05	CD Marathon Honduras Liga Nacional	0-0	0-0	13	6	D
22/05	CD Marathon Honduras Liga Nacional	0-0	1-1	2	4	D
19/05	Genesis de Comayagua Honduras Liga Nacional	1-1	2-1	6	5	W
13/05	Olancho FC Honduras Liga Nacional	1-0	2-0	4	4	W
10/05	Olancho FC Honduras Liga Nacional	1-0	1-2	6	4	L
04/05	Genesis de Comayagua Honduras Liga Nacional	1-0	1-1	4	7	D
01/05	Lobos UPNFM Honduras Liga Nacional	1-0	1-2	–	–	L

Lobos UPNFM

DLDLLLWLDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
16/08	Estrella Roja Honduras Liga Nacional	0-0	2-2	3	3	D
09/08	Olancho FC Honduras Liga Nacional	0-0	1-1	8	4	D
03/08	CD Olimpia Honduras Liga Nacional	0-2	0-2	1	2	L
01/05	Motagua Honduras Liga Nacional	0-1	2-1	–	–	W
27/04	Juticalpa Honduras Liga Nacional	0-0	0-1	–	–	L
24/04	Genesis de Comayagua Honduras Liga Nacional	0-1	0-1	2	5	L
19/04	CD Platense Honduras Liga Nacional	1-1	1-4	4	3	L
13/04	Real Espana Honduras Liga Nacional	1-0	1-1	–	–	D
06/04	CD Victoria Honduras Liga Nacional	0-1	2-3	6	5	L
03/04	CD Olimpia Honduras Liga Nacional	0-0	0-0	3	6	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Motagua vs Lobos UPNFM?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Motagua win (56%). Probabilities: Motagua 56%, draw 24%, Lobos UPNFM 20%.

How many goals are expected in Motagua vs Lobos UPNFM?

The model expects 2.67 goals (Motagua 1.74 · Lobos UPNFM 0.93), with a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Motagua vs Lobos UPNFM?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.