Football · Honduras Liga Nacional · 24/08, 01:15

Prediction: Olancho FC vs CD Olimpia

Team pages: Olancho FC · CD Olimpia

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.6Total

Olancho FC1.16

CD Olimpia1.44

1X2

30% 28% 43%

Olancho FC Draw CD Olimpia

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Olancho FC 3-4-3 (W-D-L)

DLDLWLDWDW

CD Olimpia 7-0-3 (W-D-L)

WLWWLWLWWW

Head-to-head

Olancho FC 1–4–1 CD Olimpia (6 last)

CD Olimpia0-0Olancho FC
Olancho FC1-1CD Olimpia
Olancho FC2-2CD Olimpia
CD Olimpia2-2Olancho FC
Olancho FC1-0CD Olimpia
CD Olimpia2-1Olancho FC

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Olancho FC 1500 · CD Olimpia 1598

	Olancho FC	Draw	CD Olimpia
Our model	29%	29%	42%
Market	30%	27%	43%

Estimated total (ours) 2.6 goals · Bet365 line 2.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 54%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours CD Olimpia (rating 1500 vs 1598).
High corners: 11.4 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 7.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Olancho FC	CD Olimpia
Goals for / against (FT)	0.9 / 1.1	2.2 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.6	1.2 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/60/30%	60/30/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.8 / 4.9	1.9 / 6.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.7 / 0.3	3.8 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

13.00

X3.30

22.10

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.93

2 (-0.25)1.88

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.95

Under 2.51.85

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 2.7

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 06:24

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.75 → 3.00▲	Bet365 3.00
X	3.25 → 3.30▲	Bet365 3.30
2	2.25 → 2.10▼	Bet365 2.10

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 11.3%

Time*	1	X	2
23:59 +64’	2.75	3.25	2.25
06:11 +13’	3.00▲	3.30▲	2.10▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Olancho FC 1–4–1 CD Olimpia

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Date	Home	Score	Away
19/03/26 Honduras Liga Nacional	CD Olimpia	0-0 HT 0-0	Olancho FC
29/01/26 Honduras Liga Nacional	Olancho FC	1-1 HT 0-0	CD Olimpia
04/12/25 Honduras Liga Nacional	Olancho FC	2-2 HT 1-1	CD Olimpia
18/09/25 Honduras Liga Nacional	CD Olimpia	2-2 HT 0-1	Olancho FC
04/04/25 Honduras Liga Nacional	Olancho FC	1-0 HT 0-0	CD Olimpia
03/02/25 Honduras Liga Nacional	CD Olimpia	2-1 HT 1-0	Olancho FC

Standings · Honduras Liga Nacional

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	CD Olimpia	3	3	0	0	8	2	9
2	Real Espana	3	2	1	0	6	1	7
3	CD Marathon	3	2	1	0	3	1	7
3	Olancho FC	3	2	1	0	3	1	7
5	Genesis de Comayagua	3	2	0	1	5	2	6
6	Motagua	4	2	0	2	8	6	6
7	Estrella Roja	3	1	1	1	4	3	4
8	CA Independiente Siguatepeque	3	1	1	1	3	3	4
9	Lobos UPNFM	4	0	2	2	4	9	2
10	CD Platense	3	0	1	2	1	7	1
11	Atletico Choloma	3	0	0	3	1	5	0
12	Juticalpa	3	0	0	3	1	7	0

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Olancho FC	CD Olimpia
Juticalpa	1-0 W	3-1 W
Lobos UPNFM	1-1 D	2-0 W
Motagua	0-2 L	3-1 W
CD Platense	0-1 L	4-0 W
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 2 L	4 W 0 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: CD Olimpia (4 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Olancho FC

DLDLWLDWDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/08	Juticalpa Honduras Liga Nacional	0-0	1-0	5	6	W
09/08	Lobos UPNFM Honduras Liga Nacional	0-0	1-1	5	4	D
03/08	Estrella Roja Honduras Liga Nacional	1-0	1-0	4	4	W
15/05	Genesis de Comayagua Honduras Liga Nacional	1-1	1-1	7	4	D
13/05	Motagua Honduras Liga Nacional	0-1	0-2	0	4	L
10/05	Motagua Honduras Liga Nacional	0-1	2-1	5	4	W
07/05	Genesis de Comayagua Honduras Liga Nacional	1-2	1-3	7	4	L
01/05	Genesis de Comayagua Honduras Liga Nacional	1-1	2-2	4	3	D
26/04	CD Platense Honduras Liga Nacional	0-0	0-1	4	4	L
24/04	Motagua Honduras Liga Nacional	0-0	0-0	8	3	D

CD Olimpia

WLWWLWLWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/08	Motagua Honduras Liga Nacional	1-1	3-1	7	8	W
09/08	Juticalpa Honduras Liga Nacional	2-0	3-1	3	5	W
03/08	Lobos UPNFM Honduras Liga Nacional	2-0	2-0	3	2	W
16/05	CD Marathon Honduras Liga Nacional	0-1	0-1	11	2	L
13/05	Real Espana Honduras Liga Nacional	1-0	3-2	7	4	W
10/05	Real Espana Honduras Liga Nacional	1-0	1-3	8	2	L
07/05	CD Marathon Honduras Liga Nacional	0-0	2-0	8	5	W
01/05	CD Platense Honduras Liga Nacional	1-0	4-0	5	2	W
26/04	Real Espana Honduras Liga Nacional	2-2	2-3	3	3	L
23/04	CD Marathon Honduras Liga Nacional	2-1	2-1	10	9	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Olancho FC vs CD Olimpia?

According to our model, the most likely result is an CD Olimpia win (43%). Probabilities: Olancho FC 30%, draw 28%, CD Olimpia 43%.

How many goals are expected in Olancho FC vs CD Olimpia?

The model expects 2.6 goals (Olancho FC 1.16 · CD Olimpia 1.44), with a 52% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Olancho FC vs CD Olimpia?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.