Football · Honduras Liga Nacional · 23/08, 01:15
Prediction: Estrella Roja vs Juticalpa
Team pages: Estrella Roja · Juticalpa
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.46Total
Estrella Roja1.48
Juticalpa0.98
1X2
Estrella Roja
Draw
Juticalpa
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 51%
Both teams to score 52%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Estrella Roja
2-6-2 (W-D-L)
Juticalpa
2-2-6 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Estrella Roja
1–4
Juticalpa
(5 last)
- Juticalpa2-1Estrella Roja
- Juticalpa3-0Estrella Roja
- Juticalpa2-1Estrella Roja
- Estrella Roja1-0Juticalpa
- Juticalpa2-0Estrella Roja
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Estrella Roja 1511 · Juticalpa 1445
| Estrella Roja | Draw | Juticalpa | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 48% | 29% | 24% |
| Market | 49% | 25% | 25% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.46 goals · Bet365 line 2.5
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 58%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Estrella Roja (rating 1511 vs 1445).
- H2H favours Juticalpa: 4-0-1.
- Cards-heavy: 7.5 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Estrella Roja | Juticalpa | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.2 / 0.8 | 0.7 / 1.7 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.3 / 0.5 | 0.1 / 0.7 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 0/75/25% | 10/60/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2 / 3.5 | 2 / 4.3 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4 / 0.3 | 3.5 / 0.5 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Estrella Roja 1–0–4 Juticalpa
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 24/02/24 Honduras Liga de Ascenso | Juticalpa | 2-1 HT 0-1 | Estrella Roja |
| 07/10/23 Honduras Liga de Ascenso | Juticalpa | 3-0 HT 1-0 | Estrella Roja |
| 27/03/22 Honduras Liga de Ascenso | Juticalpa | 2-1 HT 1-0 | Estrella Roja |
| 26/02/22 Honduras Liga de Ascenso | Estrella Roja | 1-0 HT 1-0 | Juticalpa |
| 19/09/21 Honduras Liga de Ascenso | Juticalpa | 2-0 HT 0-0 | Estrella Roja |
Standings · Honduras Liga Nacional
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CD Olimpia | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 2 | 9 |
| 2 | Real Espana | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 7 |
| 3 | CD Marathon | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 7 |
| 3 | Olancho FC | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 7 |
| 5 | Genesis de Comayagua | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 6 |
| 6 | Motagua | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 6 | 6 |
| 7 | Estrella Roja | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 4 |
| 8 | CA Independiente Siguatepeque | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 4 |
| 9 | Lobos UPNFM | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 9 | 2 |
| 10 | CD Platense | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 1 |
| 11 | Atletico Choloma | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| 12 | Juticalpa | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
Common opponents 3 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Estrella Roja | Juticalpa |
|---|---|---|
| Lobos UPNFM | 2-2 D | 1-0 W |
| Motagua | 2-0 W | 0-3 L |
| Olancho FC | 0-1 L | 0-1 L |
| Record vs common | 1 W 1 D 1 L | 1 W 0 D 2 L |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Estrella Roja
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/08 | Lobos UPNFM Honduras Liga Nacional |
0-0 | 2-2 | 5 | 3 | D |
| 10/08 | Motagua Honduras Liga Nacional |
0-0 | 2-0 | 1 | 4 | W |
| 03/08 | Olancho FC Honduras Liga Nacional |
0-1 | 0-1 | 3 | 4 | L |
| 10/05 | FC Brasilia Rio Lindo Honduras Liga de Ascenso |
– | 2-2 | – | – | D |
| 02/05 | FC Brasilia Rio Lindo Honduras Liga de Ascenso |
– | 1-1 | – | – | D |
| 26/04 | Pumas FC Honduras Liga de Ascenso |
– | 0-0 | – | – | D |
| 20/04 | Pumas FC Honduras Liga de Ascenso |
1-1 | 1-1 | 5 | 6 | D |
| 12/04 | Affi Academia Honduras Liga de Ascenso |
– | 4-0 | – | – | W |
| 05/04 | Affi Academia Honduras Liga de Ascenso |
– | 0-1 | – | – | L |
| 28/03 | CD San Rafael Honduras Liga de Ascenso |
– | 0-0 | – | – | D |
Juticalpa
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/08 | Olancho FC Honduras Liga Nacional |
0-0 | 0-1 | 2 | 6 | L |
| 09/08 | CD Olimpia Honduras Liga Nacional |
0-2 | 1-3 | 14 | 5 | L |
| 02/08 | Motagua Honduras Liga Nacional |
0-0 | 0-3 | 0 | 2 | L |
| 27/04 | Lobos UPNFM Honduras Liga Nacional |
0-0 | 1-0 | – | – | W |
| 22/04 | CD Victoria Honduras Liga Nacional |
0-0 | 1-2 | – | – | L |
| 20/04 | Motagua Honduras Liga Nacional |
0-0 | 1-2 | 6 | 4 | L |
| 16/04 | CD Platense Honduras Liga Nacional |
0-1 | 1-1 | 7 | 6 | D |
| 09/04 | Olancho FC Honduras Liga Nacional |
0-4 | 0-4 | 2 | 1 | L |
| 07/04 | Real Espana Honduras Liga Nacional |
0-0 | 1-1 | 0 | 5 | D |
| 02/04 | Genesis de Comayagua Honduras Liga Nacional |
1-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 3 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Estrella Roja vs Juticalpa?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Estrella Roja win (49%). Probabilities: Estrella Roja 49%, draw 27%, Juticalpa 25%.
How many goals are expected in Estrella Roja vs Juticalpa?
The model expects 2.46 goals (Estrella Roja 1.48 · Juticalpa 0.98), with a 51% chance of under 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Estrella Roja vs Juticalpa?
The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.