Football · Honduras Liga Nacional · 23/08, 23:00

Prediction: CD Marathon vs Real Espana

Team pages: CD Marathon · Real Espana

Prediction summary

Expected goals

1.9Total

CD Marathon1.05

Real Espana0.85

1X2

40% 31% 29%

CD Marathon Draw Real Espana

Markets

Over 1.5 goals 58% Not both to score 53%

Most likely score

0-0

Recent form · 10 last

CD Marathon 4-4-2 (W-D-L)

LWLWDDDWDW

Real Espana 6-2-2 (W-D-L)

WWWLWLDWWD

Head-to-head

CD Marathon 1–2–3 Real Espana (6 last)

Real Espana1-1CD Marathon
CD Marathon1-0Real Espana
Real Espana2-0CD Marathon
CD Marathon0-1Real Espana
CD Marathon0-0Real Espana
Real Espana1-0CD Marathon

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · CD Marathon 1512 · Real Espana 1566

	CD Marathon	Draw	Real Espana
Our model	38%	34%	27%
Market	41%	29%	30%

Estimated total (ours) 1.9 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · -0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 63%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Real Espana (rating 1512 vs 1566).
H2H favours Real Espana: 3-2-1.
Cards-heavy: 7.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	CD Marathon	Real Espana
Goals for / against (FT)	0.7 / 0.6	1.9 / 1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.1	0.8 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/60/0%	30/30/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.6 / 5.1	2.9 / 4.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.2 / 0.4	3.1 / 0.5

Odds Bet365

12.20

X3.10

23.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.98

2 (+0.25)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.95

Under 2.251.85

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 2.1

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 03:45

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.40 → 2.20▼	Bet365 2.20
X	3.10 → 3.10	Bet365 3.10
2	2.70 → 3.00▲	Bet365 3.00

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 11%

Time*	1	X	2
23:59 +60’	2.40	3.10	2.70
03:42 +3’	2.20▼	3.10	3.00▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · CD Marathon 1–2–3 Real Espana

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Date	Home	Score	Away
19/05/26 Honduras Liga Nacional	Real Espana	1-1 HT 0-1	CD Marathon
03/05/26 Honduras Liga Nacional	CD Marathon	1-0 HT 1-0	Real Espana
03/04/26 Honduras Liga Nacional	Real Espana	2-0 HT 1-0	CD Marathon
08/02/26 Honduras Liga Nacional	CD Marathon	0-1 HT 0-0	Real Espana
16/10/25 Honduras Liga Nacional	CD Marathon	0-0 HT 0-0	Real Espana
04/08/25 Honduras Liga Nacional	Real Espana	1-0 HT 1-0	CD Marathon

Standings · Honduras Liga Nacional

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	CD Olimpia	3	3	0	0	8	2	9
2	Real Espana	3	2	1	0	6	1	7
3	CD Marathon	3	2	1	0	3	1	7
3	Olancho FC	3	2	1	0	3	1	7
5	Genesis de Comayagua	3	2	0	1	5	2	6
6	Motagua	4	2	0	2	8	6	6
7	Estrella Roja	3	1	1	1	4	3	4
8	CA Independiente Siguatepeque	3	1	1	1	3	3	4
9	Lobos UPNFM	4	0	2	2	4	9	2
10	CD Platense	3	0	1	2	1	7	1
11	Atletico Choloma	3	0	0	3	1	5	0
12	Juticalpa	3	0	0	3	1	7	0

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	CD Marathon	Real Espana
CD Platense	1-1 D	3-0 W
CA Independiente Siguatepeque	1-0 W	1-1 D
CD Olimpia	1-0 W	2-3 L
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 0 L	1 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: CD Marathon (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

CD Marathon

LWLWDDDWDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
16/08	Atletico Choloma Honduras Liga Nacional	0-0	1-0	4	8	W
08/08	CD Platense Honduras Liga Nacional	1-1	1-1	12	4	D
04/08	CA Independiente Siguatepeque Honduras Liga Nacional	1-0	1-0	5	3	W
25/05	Motagua Honduras Liga Nacional	0-0	0-0	3	6	D
22/05	Motagua Honduras Liga Nacional	0-0	1-1	6	4	D
19/05	Real Espana Honduras Liga Nacional	1-0	1-1	3	2	D
16/05	CD Olimpia Honduras Liga Nacional	1-0	1-0	5	2	W
07/05	CD Olimpia Honduras Liga Nacional	0-0	0-2	3	5	L
03/05	Real Espana Honduras Liga Nacional	1-0	1-0	3	9	W
01/05	Atletico Choloma Honduras Liga Nacional	0-0	0-1	7	3	L

Real Espana

WWWLWLDWWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
16/08	CA Independiente Siguatepeque Honduras Liga Nacional	0-0	1-1	9	6	D
09/08	Genesis de Comayagua Honduras Liga Nacional	1-0	2-0	3	4	W
01/08	CD Platense Honduras Liga Nacional	2-0	3-0	5	0	W
19/05	CD Marathon Honduras Liga Nacional	0-1	1-1	8	2	D
13/05	CD Olimpia Honduras Liga Nacional	0-1	2-3	4	4	L
10/05	CD Olimpia Honduras Liga Nacional	0-1	3-1	5	2	W
03/05	CD Marathon Honduras Liga Nacional	0-1	0-1	2	9	L
01/05	CD Victoria Honduras Liga Nacional	1-1	2-1	7	4	W
26/04	CD Olimpia Honduras Liga Nacional	2-2	3-2	2	3	W
23/04	CD Platense Honduras Liga Nacional	2-0	2-0	3	2	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in CD Marathon vs Real Espana?

According to our model, the most likely result is a CD Marathon win (40%). Probabilities: CD Marathon 40%, draw 31%, Real Espana 29%.

How many goals are expected in CD Marathon vs Real Espana?

The model expects 1.9 goals (CD Marathon 1.05 · Real Espana 0.85), with a 57% chance of under 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in CD Marathon vs Real Espana?

The model gives a 53% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 0-0.