Football · Honduras Liga Nacional · 30/08, 03:30

Prediction: Motagua vs Olancho FC

Team pages: Motagua · Olancho FC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.64Total

Motagua1.53

Olancho FC1.11

1X2

46% 27% 27%

Motagua Draw Olancho FC

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Motagua 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

DLWWDDWLLW

Olancho FC 3-4-3 (W-D-L)

LDLWLDWDWD

Head-to-head

Motagua 2–2–2 Olancho FC (6 last)

Olancho FC0-2Motagua
Motagua1-2Olancho FC
Olancho FC0-0Motagua
Motagua1-1Olancho FC
Motagua3-2Olancho FC
Olancho FC3-1Motagua

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Motagua 1538 · Olancho FC 1507

	Motagua	Draw	Olancho FC
Our model	46%	28%	26%
Market	47%	26%	27%

Estimated total (ours) 2.64 goals · Bet365 line 3 · -0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 51%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 8.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Motagua	Olancho FC
Goals for / against (FT)	1.5 / 1.1	1 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.2	0.4 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/60/0%	10/60/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.9 / 6.1	1.7 / 4.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.7 / 0.1	3.7 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.90

X3.50

23.25

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.90

2 (+0.5)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 32.00

Under 31.80

Diff.: 0.6 · xG: 2.4

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 11:43

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.83 → 1.90▲	Bet365 1.90
X	3.40 → 3.50▲	Bet365 3.50
2	3.50 → 3.25▼	Bet365 3.25

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 12%

Time*	1	X	2
08:25 +3’	1.83	3.40	3.50
11:36 +7’	1.90▲	3.50▲	3.25▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Motagua 2–2–2 Olancho FC

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
13/05/26 Honduras Liga Nacional	Olancho FC	0-2 HT 0-1	Motagua
10/05/26 Honduras Liga Nacional	Motagua	1-2 HT 1-0	Olancho FC
24/04/26 Honduras Liga Nacional	Olancho FC	0-0 HT 0-0	Motagua
02/03/26 Honduras Liga Nacional	Motagua	1-1 HT 0-0	Olancho FC
21/11/25 Honduras Liga Nacional	Motagua	3-2 HT 0-1	Olancho FC
10/08/25 Honduras Liga Nacional	Olancho FC	3-1 HT 2-0	Motagua

Standings · Honduras Liga Nacional

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	CD Olimpia	4	3	1	0	9	3	10
2	Real Espana	4	2	2	0	7	2	8
3	CD Marathon	4	2	2	0	4	2	8
3	Olancho FC	4	2	2	0	4	2	8
5	Estrella Roja	4	2	1	1	9	5	7
6	Genesis de Comayagua	4	2	1	1	6	3	7
7	Motagua	4	2	0	2	8	6	6
8	CA Independiente Siguatepeque	4	1	2	1	4	4	5
9	Atletico Choloma	4	1	0	3	3	5	3
10	Lobos UPNFM	4	0	2	2	4	9	2
11	CD Platense	4	0	1	3	1	9	1
12	Juticalpa	4	0	0	4	3	12	0

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Motagua	Olancho FC
Lobos UPNFM	4-1 W	1-1 D
CD Olimpia	1-3 L	1-1 D
Estrella Roja	0-2 L	1-0 W
Juticalpa	3-0 W	1-0 W
Genesis de Comayagua	2-1 W	1-1 D
Record vs common	3 W 0 D 2 L	2 W 3 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Motagua (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Motagua

DLWWDDWLLW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
22/08	Lobos UPNFM Honduras Liga Nacional	3-0	4-1	5	4	W
17/08	CD Olimpia Honduras Liga Nacional	1-1	1-3	5	8	L
10/08	Estrella Roja Honduras Liga Nacional	0-0	0-2	9	4	L
02/08	Juticalpa Honduras Liga Nacional	0-0	3-0	7	2	W
25/05	CD Marathon Honduras Liga Nacional	0-0	0-0	13	6	D
22/05	CD Marathon Honduras Liga Nacional	0-0	1-1	2	4	D
19/05	Genesis de Comayagua Honduras Liga Nacional	1-1	2-1	6	5	W
13/05	Olancho FC Honduras Liga Nacional	1-0	2-0	4	4	W
10/05	Olancho FC Honduras Liga Nacional	1-0	1-2	6	4	L
04/05	Genesis de Comayagua Honduras Liga Nacional	1-0	1-1	4	7	D

Olancho FC

LDLWLDWDWD

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/08	CD Olimpia Honduras Liga Nacional	0-0	1-1	1	2	D
17/08	Juticalpa Honduras Liga Nacional	0-0	1-0	5	6	W
09/08	Lobos UPNFM Honduras Liga Nacional	0-0	1-1	5	4	D
03/08	Estrella Roja Honduras Liga Nacional	1-0	1-0	4	4	W
15/05	Genesis de Comayagua Honduras Liga Nacional	1-1	1-1	7	4	D
13/05	Motagua Honduras Liga Nacional	0-1	0-2	0	4	L
10/05	Motagua Honduras Liga Nacional	0-1	2-1	5	4	W
07/05	Genesis de Comayagua Honduras Liga Nacional	1-2	1-3	7	4	L
01/05	Genesis de Comayagua Honduras Liga Nacional	1-1	2-2	4	3	D
26/04	CD Platense Honduras Liga Nacional	0-0	0-1	4	4	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Motagua vs Olancho FC?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Motagua win (46%). Probabilities: Motagua 46%, draw 27%, Olancho FC 27%.

How many goals are expected in Motagua vs Olancho FC?

The model expects 2.64 goals (Motagua 1.53 · Olancho FC 1.11), with a 58% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Motagua vs Olancho FC?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.