Football · Honduras Liga Nacional · 31/08, 01:15

Prediction: Real Espana vs Atletico Choloma

Team pages: Real Espana · Atletico Choloma

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.25Total

Real Espana2.16

Atletico Choloma1.09

1X2

61% 22% 17%

Real Espana Draw Atletico Choloma

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 59% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1 10%

Recent form · 10 last

Real Espana 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

WWLWLDWWDD

Atletico Choloma 4-0-6 (W-D-L)

LWWLLWLLLW

Head-to-head

Real Espana 4–1–1 Atletico Choloma (6 last)

Atletico Choloma3-2Real Espana
Real Espana2-1Atletico Choloma
Real Espana3-0Atletico Choloma
Atletico Choloma0-3Real Espana
Atletico Choloma1-2Real Espana
Atletico Choloma1-1Real Espana

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Real Espana 1560 · Atletico Choloma 1467

	Real Espana	Draw	Atletico Choloma
Our model	61%	22%	17%
Market	61%	22%	17%

Estimated total (ours) 3.25 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 66%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Real Espana (rating 1560 vs 1467).
H2H favours Real Espana: 4-1-1.
Cards-heavy: 8.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Real Espana	Atletico Choloma
Goals for / against (FT)	1.8 / 1.1	1.5 / 2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.8	0.8 / 1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/30/50%	20/30/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.8 / 4.6	2.6 / 5.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.2 / 0.6	5.4 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.48

X4.00

25.25

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1)1.80

2 (+1)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.93

Under 2.751.88

Diff.: 0.45 · xG: 3.2

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 14:35

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.36 → 1.48▲	Bet365 1.48
X	4.33 → 4.00▼	Bet365 4.00
2	6.50 → 5.25▼	Bet365 5.25

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 11.6%

Time*	1	X	2
08:42 +6’	1.36	4.33	6.50
14:28 +6’	1.48▲	4.00▼	5.25▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Real Espana 4–1–1 Atletico Choloma

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Date	Home	Score	Away
10/04/26 Honduras Liga Nacional	Atletico Choloma	3-2 HT 0-1	Real Espana
15/02/26 Honduras Liga Nacional	Real Espana	2-1 HT 1-1	Atletico Choloma
19/10/25 Honduras Liga Nacional	Real Espana	3-0 HT 1-0	Atletico Choloma
10/08/25 Honduras Liga Nacional	Atletico Choloma	0-3 HT 0-1	Real Espana
08/07/25 America Friendlies	Atletico Choloma	1-2 HT 0-2	Real Espana
12/01/25 America Friendlies	Atletico Choloma	1-1 HT 0-1	Real Espana

Standings · Honduras Liga Nacional

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	CD Olimpia	4	3	1	0	9	3	10
2	Real Espana	4	2	2	0	7	2	8
3	CD Marathon	4	2	2	0	4	2	8
3	Olancho FC	4	2	2	0	4	2	8
5	Estrella Roja	4	2	1	1	9	5	7
6	Genesis de Comayagua	4	2	1	1	6	3	7
7	Motagua	4	2	0	2	8	6	6
8	CA Independiente Siguatepeque	4	1	2	1	4	4	5
9	Atletico Choloma	4	1	0	3	3	5	3
10	Lobos UPNFM	4	0	2	2	4	9	2
11	CD Platense	4	0	1	3	1	9	1
12	Juticalpa	4	0	0	4	3	12	0

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Real Espana	Atletico Choloma
CD Marathon	1-1 D	0-1 L
CA Independiente Siguatepeque	1-1 D	1-2 L
Genesis de Comayagua	2-0 W	0-2 L
CD Platense	3-0 W	2-0 W
CD Olimpia	2-3 L	1-3 L
CD Victoria	2-1 W	5-2 W
Record vs common	3 W 2 D 1 L	2 W 0 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: Real Espana (5 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Real Espana

WWLWLDWWDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
23/08	CD Marathon Honduras Liga Nacional	0-1	1-1	1	4	D
16/08	CA Independiente Siguatepeque Honduras Liga Nacional	0-0	1-1	9	6	D
09/08	Genesis de Comayagua Honduras Liga Nacional	1-0	2-0	3	4	W
01/08	CD Platense Honduras Liga Nacional	2-0	3-0	5	0	W
19/05	CD Marathon Honduras Liga Nacional	0-1	1-1	8	2	D
13/05	CD Olimpia Honduras Liga Nacional	0-1	2-3	4	4	L
10/05	CD Olimpia Honduras Liga Nacional	0-1	3-1	5	2	W
03/05	CD Marathon Honduras Liga Nacional	0-1	0-1	2	9	L
01/05	CD Victoria Honduras Liga Nacional	1-1	2-1	7	4	W
26/04	CD Olimpia Honduras Liga Nacional	2-2	3-2	2	3	W

Atletico Choloma

LWWLLWLLLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
23/08	CD Platense Honduras Liga Nacional	2-0	2-0	9	9	W
16/08	CD Marathon Honduras Liga Nacional	0-0	0-1	12	8	L
10/08	CA Independiente Siguatepeque Honduras Liga Nacional	1-2	1-2	2	7	L
01/08	Genesis de Comayagua Honduras Liga Nacional	0-2	0-2	5	2	L
01/05	CD Marathon Honduras Liga Nacional	0-0	1-0	3	3	W
27/04	Motagua Honduras Liga Nacional	1-3	1-5	4	4	L
19/04	CD Olimpia Honduras Liga Nacional	0-0	1-3	–	–	L
14/04	CD Victoria Honduras Liga Nacional	3-0	5-2	4	4	W
10/04	Real Espana Honduras Liga Nacional	0-1	3-2	0	10	W
05/04	Olancho FC Honduras Liga Nacional	1-2	1-3	7	4	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Real Espana vs Atletico Choloma?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Real Espana win (61%). Probabilities: Real Espana 61%, draw 22%, Atletico Choloma 17%.

How many goals are expected in Real Espana vs Atletico Choloma?

The model expects 3.25 goals (Real Espana 2.16 · Atletico Choloma 1.09), with a 53% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Real Espana vs Atletico Choloma?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.