Football · Honduras Liga Nacional · 29/08, 23:00

Prediction: Genesis de Comayagua vs CD Marathon

Team pages: Genesis de Comayagua · CD Marathon

Prediction summary

Expected goals

1.92Total

Genesis de Comayagua0.86

CD Marathon1.06

1X2

29% 31% 40%

Genesis de Comayagua Draw CD Marathon

Markets

Over 1.5 goals 59% Not both to score 53%

Most likely score

0-0 16%

Recent form · 10 last

Genesis de Comayagua 4-4-2 (W-D-L)

WDDWDLWLWD

CD Marathon 4-5-1 (W-D-L)

WLWDDDWDWD

Head-to-head

Genesis de Comayagua 1–3 CD Marathon (4 last)

Genesis de Comayagua0-1CD Marathon
CD Marathon1-2Genesis de Comayagua
Genesis de Comayagua0-3CD Marathon
CD Marathon1-0Genesis de Comayagua

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Genesis de Comayagua 1538 · CD Marathon 1559

	Genesis de Comayagua	Draw	CD Marathon
Our model	28%	34%	38%
Market	30%	29%	41%

Estimated total (ours) 1.92 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · -0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 62%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours CD Marathon: 3-0-1.
Cards-heavy: 7.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Genesis de Comayagua	CD Marathon
Goals for / against (FT)	1.6 / 1	0.8 / 0.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 0.6	0.6 / 0.1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/50/20%	50/50/0%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.2 / 3.9	2.3 / 4.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.6 / 0.1	4.2 / 0.5

Odds Bet365

13.00

X3.10

22.20

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.82

2 (-0.25)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 2.252.00

Under 2.251.80

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 2

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 08:23

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.00 → 3.00	Bet365 3.00
X	3.10 → 3.10	Bet365 3.10
2	2.20 → 2.20	Bet365 2.20

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11%

Time*	1	X	2
08:10 +13’	3.00	3.10	2.20

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Genesis de Comayagua 1–0–3 CD Marathon

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Date	Home	Score	Away
18/04/26 Honduras Liga Nacional	Genesis de Comayagua	0-1 HT 0-1	CD Marathon
27/02/26 Honduras Liga Nacional	CD Marathon	1-2 HT 0-1	Genesis de Comayagua
18/10/25 Honduras Liga Nacional	Genesis de Comayagua	0-3 HT 0-1	CD Marathon
09/08/25 Honduras Liga Nacional	CD Marathon	1-0 HT 1-0	Genesis de Comayagua

Standings · Honduras Liga Nacional

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	CD Olimpia	4	3	1	0	9	3	10
2	Real Espana	4	2	2	0	7	2	8
3	CD Marathon	4	2	2	0	4	2	8
3	Olancho FC	4	2	2	0	4	2	8
5	Estrella Roja	4	2	1	1	9	5	7
6	Genesis de Comayagua	4	2	1	1	6	3	7
7	Motagua	4	2	0	2	8	6	6
8	CA Independiente Siguatepeque	4	1	2	1	4	4	5
9	Atletico Choloma	4	1	0	3	3	5	3
10	Lobos UPNFM	4	0	2	2	4	9	2
11	CD Platense	4	0	1	3	1	9	1
12	Juticalpa	4	0	0	4	3	12	0

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Genesis de Comayagua	CD Marathon
CA Independiente Siguatepeque	1-1 D	1-0 W
CD Platense	3-0 W	1-1 D
Real Espana	0-2 L	1-1 D
Atletico Choloma	2-0 W	1-0 W
Motagua	1-2 L	0-0 D
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 2 L	2 W 3 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: CD Marathon (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Genesis de Comayagua

WDDWDLWLWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
22/08	CA Independiente Siguatepeque Honduras Liga Nacional	0-0	1-1	10	4	D
15/08	CD Platense Honduras Liga Nacional	2-0	3-0	8	4	W
09/08	Real Espana Honduras Liga Nacional	0-1	0-2	1	4	L
01/08	Atletico Choloma Honduras Liga Nacional	2-0	2-0	2	2	W
19/05	Motagua Honduras Liga Nacional	1-1	1-2	5	5	L
15/05	Olancho FC Honduras Liga Nacional	1-1	1-1	3	4	D
07/05	Olancho FC Honduras Liga Nacional	2-1	3-1	1	4	W
04/05	Motagua Honduras Liga Nacional	0-1	1-1	4	7	D
01/05	Olancho FC Honduras Liga Nacional	1-1	2-2	4	3	D
27/04	CD Victoria Honduras Liga Nacional	0-0	2-0	1	0	W

CD Marathon

WLWDDDWDWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
23/08	Real Espana Honduras Liga Nacional	1-0	1-1	5	4	D
16/08	Atletico Choloma Honduras Liga Nacional	0-0	1-0	4	8	W
08/08	CD Platense Honduras Liga Nacional	1-1	1-1	12	4	D
04/08	CA Independiente Siguatepeque Honduras Liga Nacional	1-0	1-0	5	3	W
25/05	Motagua Honduras Liga Nacional	0-0	0-0	3	6	D
22/05	Motagua Honduras Liga Nacional	0-0	1-1	6	4	D
19/05	Real Espana Honduras Liga Nacional	1-0	1-1	3	2	D
16/05	CD Olimpia Honduras Liga Nacional	1-0	1-0	5	2	W
07/05	CD Olimpia Honduras Liga Nacional	0-0	0-2	3	5	L
03/05	Real Espana Honduras Liga Nacional	1-0	1-0	3	9	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Genesis de Comayagua vs CD Marathon?

According to our model, the most likely result is an CD Marathon win (40%). Probabilities: Genesis de Comayagua 29%, draw 31%, CD Marathon 40%.

How many goals are expected in Genesis de Comayagua vs CD Marathon?

The model expects 1.92 goals (Genesis de Comayagua 0.86 · CD Marathon 1.06), with a 58% chance of under 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Genesis de Comayagua vs CD Marathon?

The model gives a 53% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 0-0.